With the 2026 World Cup fast approaching, we used Football Manager 2026 to simulate the potential outcome in North America, Canada and Mexico this summer.
Will there be any surprise packages? Will any big nations crash out early? And, ultimately, who will be crowned world champions in 2026?
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Group A
Results
- Mexico 3-0 South Africa
- South Korea 3-1 Czech Republic
- Czech Republic 0-0 South Africa
- Mexico 0-0 South Korea
- Czech Republic 2-4 Mexico
- South Africa 1-3 South Korea
Table
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 7 |
| 2 | South Korea | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Czech Republic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 4 | South Africa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 |
Group A went as many people will have expected, with Mexico and South Korea finishing in the top two. FM26 simulated a goalless draw between the pair in the second game, which led to goal difference splitting the two. Mexico finished top thanks to their big win over South Africa in the World Cup’s opening game. Czech Republic and South Africa offered very little in terms of a threat, even for a third-placed spot. Their only points came in a goalless draw between the two.
Group B
Results
- Canada 0-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina
- Qatar 0-2 Switzerland
- Switzerland 1-0 Bosnia-Herzegovina
- Canada 3-0 Qatar
- Switzerland 1-1 Canada
- Bosnia-Herzegovina 1-1 Qatar
Table
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Canada | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 3 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Qatar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 |
This is a pretty even setup on paper, and our FM simulation has it as one of the groups to see three teams go through. That includes co-hosts Canada, who would be making history in reaching the knockout stages for the first time — despite losing their opening game. Bosnia-Herzegovina beat Canada in that matchup, but had to settle for third through goal difference. It’s worth noting that this is an error in FM26, with head-to-head results being the first actual tiebreaker in the group stages. Switzerland were the star team though, winning their opening two matches before drawing with Canada to seal top spot.
Group C
Results
- Brazil 2-1 Morocco
- Haiti 1-4 Scotland
- Scotland 1-1 Morocco
- Brazil 4-0 Haiti
- Scotland 0-1 Brazil
- Morocco 2-2 Haiti
Table
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Scotland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 4 |
| 3 | Morocco | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 |
It’s no surprise to see Brazil finish top of their group, perfect after three games. Many expect life to imitate art here. It was pretty flawless too, with Brazil scoring seven goals and only conceding once — to Morocco in their opening match. Morocco had a steep drop from their 2022 showing to take just two points from their three group stage matches, but it was still enough for a knockout stage spot as one of the best third-placed teams. There was also knockout stage football for Scotland, who took four points from three games, only losing to Brazil in their final match.
Group D
Results
- United States 3-1 Paraguay
- Australia 2-2 Turkey
- United States 1-0 Australia
- Turkey 1-0 Paraguay
- Turkey 1-4 United States
- Paraguay 1-3 Australia
Table
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Australia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | Turkey | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Paraguay | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
Another very close group to call on paper, FM actually has United States running away with things. The co-hosts went perfect in our simulated group stage, winning all three of their matches. They conceded just two goals, but they came in comfortable victories to bookend the group stage. Australia and Turkey were tied on four points, with the Socceroos coming out on top on goal difference — after their 2-2 draw. But Turkey’s return was still enough to seal a knockout round spot. Paraguay finished bottom without a point, which is the first big shock of this simulated group stage.
Group E
Results
- Germany 1-1 Curacao
- Ivory Coast 0-0 Ecuador
- Germany 0-0 Ivory Coast
- Ecuador 3-1 Curacao
- Curacao 0-2 Ivory Coast
- Ecuador 0-0 Germany
Table
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 5 |
| 3 | Germany | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Curacao | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 |
You don’t have to go far for the next big shock. Germany have been rotten at recent World Cups, and it continued in our FM26 simulation — even if they did make it out of the group stage. Die Mannschaft drew all there of their matches including against Curacao in their opening game. Germany scored just one goal and conceded one, but did just enough to take one of the best third-placed spots. Ecuador and Ivory Coast finished first and second respectively, only separated on goals scored. They both benefitted from wins over Curacao alongside draws with each other, and Germany.
Group F
Results
- Netherlands 1-1 Japan
- Sweden 1-1 Tunisia
- Netherlands 2-0 Sweden
- Tunisia 2-2 Japan
- Japan 0-0 Sweden
- Tunisia 1-2 Netherlands
Table
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Japan | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Sweden | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 |
Netherlands eventually won Group F quite comfortably, despite their opening draw with Japan. Oranje bounced back to beat Sweden and Tunisia to seal top spot. They were the only wins in this Group F simulation, with Japan finishing second after three draws. Tunisia and Sweden were level on two points, with Tunisia finishing third on goal difference — after their draw. And it was enough for a spot in the knockout stages, too. FM26 obviously deems the battle for second a very close one.
Group G
Results
- Iran 1-3 New Zealand
- Belgium 4-1 Egypt
- Belgium 5-0 Iran
- New Zealand 0-0 Egypt
- Egypt 4-0 Iran
- New Zealand 2-4 Belgium
Table
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | New Zealand | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Iran | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 |
Belgium dominated Group G in our FM26 simulation, winning all three of their group matches. They finished with a +10 goal difference too, with a 4-2 victory over New Zealand their smallest margin of victory. That came in their final game, with top spot already secured. New Zealand had also sealed their spot in the knockout stages, but had to settle for a third-placed finish with Egypt leapfrogging them on the final day. Iran were on the receiving end of a lot of thrashings, ending on -11 goal difference.
Group H
Results
- Spain 4-0 Cape Verde
- Saudi Arabia 0-0 Uruguay
- Spain 2-0 Saudi Arabia
- Uruguay 2-0 Cape Verde
- Uruguay 1-1 Spain
- Cape Verde 3-3 Saudi Arabia
Table
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Uruguay | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 3 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 |
This is another simulated group that has gone as many expect it to go in real life. Spain finish top of the group, two points clear of Uruguay after a draw in their final match. There were comfortable wins for Spain over Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde too. Perhaps a slight surprise was Uruguay’s opening draw with Saudi Arabia, though their win over Cape Verde did enough to secure second. Saudi Arabia’s two draws weren’t enough for a knockout stage place, hurt by their 2-0 defeat to Spain.
Group I
Results
- France 1-0 Senegal
- Iraq 0-3 Norway
- France 10-0 Iraq
- Norway 5-2 Senegal
- Norway 2-1 France
- Senegal 3-0 Iraq
Table
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norway | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 | France | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 6 |
| 3 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Iraq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 16 | -16 | 0 |
This is perhaps another surprise. Many will expect Norway to go through along with France, and potentially Senegal. But not many will tip them to win the group. And even fewer will back them to do it while going perfect. Norway are a dark horse, having been away from the world stage for so long, but FM26 has them sealing top spot with a 2-1 win over France in the final game. Les Bleus settled for second, but made World Cup history with a 10-0 win over Iraq. Senegal’s 3-0 win over Iraq in their final game was enough to seal a knockout stage spot. Iraq fans will be hoping for a much different showing in real life, with the simulation seeing them concede 16 goals without reply across three matches.
Group J
Results
- Argentina 2-0 Algeria
- Austria 5-0 Jordan
- Argentina 1-1 Austria
- Jordan 1-1 Algeria
- Algeria 1-1 Austria
- Jordan 0-5 Argentina
Table
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 7 |
| 2 | Austria | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 5 |
| 3 | Algeria | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Jordan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 1 |
Back to the unsurprising, Argentina are expected to win Group J and that’s what happens in our FM26 simulation. But top spot only comes in the final round of fixtures, because Austria drop points. Still, seven points from three games is a good return for the defending champions. And they know it’s all about how you finish a group stage. Austria had to settle for second, after their big win over Jordan was followed up by two draws. Neither Algeria nor Jordan did enough to qualify for the knockout stages.
Group K
Results
- Portugal 3-0 DR Congo
- Uzbekistan 0-3 Colombia
- Portugal 5-2 Uzbekistan
- Colombia 1-1 DR Congo
- Colombia 1-0 Portugal
- DR Congo 1-1 Uzbekistan
Table
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Portugal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 3 | DR Congo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 2 |
| 4 | Uzbekistan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 |
Perhaps another minor shock comes in Portugal not finishing top of this group. Colombia got the better of the European side in their final group game to seal top spot, leapfrogging them to top spot. Portugal had won their opening two matches, while Colombia had four points from two games. DR Congo finished third in the group with two drwas and one defeat, including a stalemate against Colombia. But it wasn’t enough to seal a knockout stage spot. Uzbekistan did manage a point in their maiden World Cup.
Group L
Results
- England 4-1 Croatia
- Ghana 0-1 Panama
- England 2-3 Ghana
- Panama 0-0 Croatia
- Panama 2-4 England
- Croatia 0-1 Ghana
Table
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Ghana | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Panama | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Croatia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
England top Group L in our FM26 simulation, as some might expect. But they didn’t have it all their way. In fact, if FM26’s tiebreakers were correct, the Three Lions will have actually finished second. They were level on points with Ghana, but lost the head-to-head match. FM26 has England top on goal difference, but Ghana’s win in the fixture would put them top in real life. England won their other two matches, while Ghana suffered a shock defeat to Panama. And Panama might be the story of the group stage, finishing third in the group with four points, securing safe passage to the knockout stages. There will no doubt be virtual investigations into Croatia’s bottom-of-the-group showing, with one point from three games.
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