Preston North End sit second-from-bottom in the Championship table. But that doesn’t tell the whole story.
Not only that, but they have just sacked manager Paul Heckingbottom after 13 months in charge. The 49-year-old guided the Lilywhites to a great first half of last season, when they sat fourth in the table after matchweek 26.
However, they quickly faded after Everton cut Harrison Armstrong’s loan spell short. Not only did Preston fail to replace him, but also couldn’t add to an already short squad. The lack of fresh legs meant they would go on to finish 14th, losing 11 of their final 20 matches of the campaign.
While they finally invested significant money into strengthening the team, it remains relatively weak in terms of quality. And the results so far have reflected that. The Lilywhites have scored the joint-fewest and conceded the joint-most goals of any side in the Championship so far.
And yet, it could – and maybe should – have been a lot different.
Why are Preston North End having an intriguing season?
Expectation vs reality
Preston have been the second worst team in the Championship in terms of results. Only Burnley have won fewer points so far. But that’s not the outcome when looking at the ‘justice table’.
Opta’s Expected Points model has the Lilywhites ninth with 10.9 xP, as opposed to 23rd with three point. In fact, their underperformance of -7.9 is the largest differential (positive and negative) between expected and actual points.
They have generated more expected goals than the opponent in five of their seven matches so far, a tally matched only by Birmingham City, Millwall, West Ham United and Wolverhampton Wanderers, and bettered only by Middlesbrough. Out of those, Millwall are the lowest in table, sitting in 11th.
Preston have also only had fewer clear-cut goalscoring opportunities than their opponent once. It was during their 1-3 loss to Wolves.
And it isn’t exactly a game-state-driven phenomenon either. In modern football, teams tend to have more possession – and sometimes shots – because they are losing. Which is why it’s become increasingly harder (and possibly wrong) to separate results by possession splits (more or less than 50%).
But despite having lost six of their seven games, Preston still rank 20th in possession in the Championship, averaging 44%. They rarely dominate the opposition and, even spending most of the time without the ball, still manage to create.
The Lilywhites are mid-table in big chances (11th, 16) and Expected Poals (11th, 10.2 xG). But they rank 19th in big chance conversion rate (25%) and 23rd in xG performance (-4.2).
Similarly, they rank sixth in fewest big chances faced (14) and eigth in fewest xGA (8.4). And yet, have the second worst differential between expected goals against and goals conceded (-4.6).
Dangerous move to sack Heckingbottom
We have already established the main reason Preston have been so poor this season comes down much more to results than actual performances.
While Heckingbottom can certainly lean on this to make a case for himself that it’s hard to do much more with this group of players, it’s also important to acknowledge the board’s decision to let him go. If they weren’t looking as bad as the table made it seem and still couldn’t get results, then maybe it’s better to choose a different path.
Heckingbottom is a good manager at this level, having won promotion to the Premier League with Sheffield United as recently as 2023.
And while there certainly are other good head coaches for the second tier, it’s hard to imagine Preston having enough to attract them. The likes of Carlos Corberan, Steve Cooper and Rob Edwards – all Championship proven – have all had more relevant jobs lately.
There’s always the Gary Rowett type – which could even provide a short-term boost, and could be enough to keep them up as it is still early days.
However, it does feel that, after flirting with relegation in 2024/25 and playing like an actual bottom-three side for half of the 2025/26 campaign, the 2026/27 season will be the one in which Preston inevitably face the drop.