A 3-0 defeat away at Manchester City was hardly the ideal preparation for Sunderland ahead of their Tyne-Wear derby clash with Newcastle United, but there are still plenty of reasons for optimism.
The Black Cats have made an excellent start to life back in the Premier League, and even after this defeat, leaving them on one win from their last six, they remain seventh in the table.
Now, attention turns to Sunday, when they’ll host Newcastle in the first Premier League Tyne-Wear derby since 2017.
After a tough start, Newcastle are most definitely a side trending in the right direction, unbeaten in their last four league games and taking 10 points during that time — a run that includes a 2-1 win against Man City and a 4-1 thrashing of Everton away from home.
However, there are still plenty of factors at play that should give Sunderland fans supreme confidence in pulling off a positive result against their rivals to take local bragging rights.
Here are three of them:
Granit Xhaka
Sunderland were extremely busy over the summer, but amid their deluge of signings, one stood out among the rest: Granit Xhaka.
The Swiss midfielder arrived at the Stadium of Light after two fantastic years with Bayer Leverkusen, in which he was a key figure for their 2023/24 unbeaten domestic double and run to the Europa League final — not to mention picking up the DFL-Supercup, finishing second in the Bundesliga and reaching the DFB-Pokal semi-finals last season.
There was always the risk that Xhaka would be a flop, given he turned 33 in September. But Sunderland showed faith by immediately handing him the captain’s armband, trusting he could utilise his seven years and 225 Premier League games of experience with Arsenal.
Xhaka has done that and then some. He’s quite simply critical to everything the Black Cats do, posting team-highs for passes completed (635), final third passes completed (176), touches (998) and crosses completed (13) on one side of the ball, and possessions won in the middle third (35) on the other.
Defensively, he also figures in the top four among Sunderland players in other key metrics like tackles (26), clearances (51) and aerial duels won (34), while he’s the creative hub of the team with more assists (4) than any other player — only Bruno Fernandes, Rayan Cherki and Mohammed Kudus (all 5) have more throughout the league.
Xhaka has been the key bridge between defence and attack, dropping deep to progress the ball, while he’s most often the man picking the lock at the other end, not to mention a set-piece expert.
Newcastle United have one of the strongest starting midfields in the Premier League in Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali and Joelinton. However, in Xhaka, they have the perfect man to disrupt their rhythm and take control of the match.
Home record
Sunderland have lost three of their last nine Premier League matches, and two of their last four. However, not a single one of those defeats has come at the Stadium of Light, where the Black Cats still remain undefeated in the Premier League this season.
Sunderland have played seven home matches, winning four and drawing three, while scoring 14 goals and conceding just seven along the way.
Arsenal are the only other unbeaten home team in the Premier League, while only they (19), Man City (21), Aston Villa (19), Brentford (16) and Newcastle (16) have more points at home.
By contrast, Newcastle have one of the worst away records in the Premier League, taking just six points and one victory from seven road games.
Eddie Howe’s men have managed just seven goals during that time, conceding nine, with that recent thrashing of Everton only serving to end a three-game losing streak away from St. James’ Park, while it was their first away win this season and the first time they’ve scored more than once in such games.
On paper, this is an immovable object going up against a very stoppable force, and while games aren’t won on paper, Sunderland’s home record and Newcastle’s away record will very much serve to embolden what will already be a voracious Mackems support.
Solidity and ice-cold finishing
Some derbies (we’re looking at you, North London) are goal-packed cauldrons of chaos. Others, however, are tighter affairs, often settled by a single goal or mistake, with neither side wanting to give an advantage to the other.
Given the long wait for this fixture, the emotion behind it and the form of the two teams, this one feels like it’ll fall into the latter category.
If that is the case, Sunderland could take the edge.
The Black Cats have already kept four clean sheets so far this season, and while that’s not usually a reliable metric to measure a goalkeeper by, Robin Roefs has played a huge role.
The Dutchman — a controversial summer signing given the role Anthony Patterson played in promotion — is second among Premier League goalkeepers for saves (53) this season and first for crosses caught (26), running up 0.24 goals prevented per 90 minutes. All of that has combined for a league-high 70% rating on our Squawka Score* among goalkeepers.
*The Squawka Score is our proprietary performance rating, combining multiple Opta stats into a single percentage. It benchmarks players against their positional peers, allowing quick comparisons. Learn more about how it works here: https://www.squawka.com/en/news/squawka-score-explained/
The defensive unit in front of Roefs has played its part, too, sitting second in the league for clearances (489), third for aerial duels won (275) and sixth for possessions won in the middle third (272).
At the other end, Sunderland have been clinical rather than careless, scoring 18 goals from an xG of just 14.47, placing them among the highest overperformers in the English top-flight so far.
If they can make this a close game, Sunderland might just have the solidity and composure to turn it in their favour.