It looked like Coventry City had already booked their place in next season’s Premier League, but things took a turn for the worse recently.
At one point, the Sky Blues were sitting in the top of the Championship table, 10 points clear of Middlesbrough. They won 13 of their first 18 games picking up just one loss and scoring 50 goals in the process.
It was a historic campaign in the making that suddenly has looked nothing like it used to until the end of November. Now, Frank Lampard’s men have seen Boro open up a two-point gap at the top. To make matters worse, Ipswich Town find themselves five points behind Coventry with a game in hand.
What has gone wrong with Coventry City in the Championship?
Defensive transition
Since the start of the season, Coventry City have been an attacking-minded side. They were always the kind of team that would look to score more goals than the opposition rather than conceding fewer.
Watching their games now in this poor run of orm, one thing stands out: how often their defensive line runs backwards. This is a good indicator of how solid a team is at the back – and they are not.
No side has conceded more fast breaks since the start of December in the Championship than the Sky Blues. And the gap between them and League One-bound Sheffield Wednesday to the rest is wide.
The usual pairing of Matt Grimes and Victor Torp offers little cover for the centre-backs – the same can be said about Josh Eccles as well.
Their main contributions to the team are with the ball at their feet. Grimes controlling tempo, distributing the ball and getting crosses into the box, Torp crashing from behind to get shots off.
Key stats:
- Matt Grimes: 1.7 tackles per 90
- Victor Torp: 1.3 tackles per 90
- Josh Eccles: 1.4 tackles per 90
The lack of a true defensive-minded, holding midfielder is a great cause for concern when Coventry have to track back. They did sign Frank Onyeka late on in the transfer window but he hasn’t made his debut yet.
Onyeka did put in good defensive numbers in the Bundesliga last season, which could be encouraging. But he hasn’t featured in a club game since late October and could be out of rhythm.
In-possession woes
Coventry’s defensive problems can be traced back to their in-possession approach, to some degree.
By now, it’s common knowledge that Frank Lampard sets high focus on wide play. There are constant movements between defensive and attacking midfielders down the flanks with full-backs overlapping and looking to get crosses into the box.
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But this strategy drags the holding midfielders out wide to an extent that it makes their life difficult to track back. They then have to cover larger distances in order to get in their defensive shape while closing down the middle and protecting the back line.
In terms of creating chances, Coventry are still elite. They have gone just one game all season without having a big chance (0-0 draw vs Leicester City in September).
Considering their last 13 games – which is right after their stretch of 11 wins from 12 games -, they have produced over one expected goal in nine matches, averaging 1.6 xG in this span.
But the finishing part is worrying. They have turned the 20.2 xG from this run into just 13 goals, missing 80% of their big chances in the process (5/25 converted).
Haji Wright is the main culprit in this regard, putting away just one of the eight clear-cut goalscoring opportunities he received.
Self-inflicted wounds
Speaking of shooting themselves in the foot, individual shortcomings have been a common theme for Coventry City as of late.
Not only have they missed most of their chances going forward, they are also gift-wrapping them for opponents on the other end.
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The Sky Blues have made just 15 errors that led to shots in the Championship this season, which ranks in the top-10. Only nine teams have made fewer.
But a whopping nine of those 15 (60%) happened in their last 10 games. Funny thing is that they came from eight different players – Grimes being the only one with two. It’s been a collective issue.
Promotion in danger?
Despite the poor results lately, it would be foolish to write Coventry off the promotion race. Ipswich were flying high but have looked shaky over their last three matches. Hull are overachieving and things may go back to expected in the near future.
Millwall could be a threat and have played well recently – but their only loss across their last nine games was precisely to Coventry, who outclassed them quite convincingly.
That said, if the Sky Blues want to play Premier League football next season, it has to be via the automatics. Their style of football is not the most reliable in a tense and nervy play-off setting. The heartbreaking loss to Sunderland last year is a good example.
In addition to that, should they fall to the 3rd-6th range, Lampard’s men will have to face three knock-out matches following one of the greatest collapses in second tier history. Momentum would be against them and the opposite of potential opponents.
Good news is that just being less worse in front of goal could already do wonders for them going forward. They don’t need to be the most solid defence in the league because they never were that even on their best day. But goals need to come sooner rather than later.