Winter appears to be setting in for Brentford, and if they don’t address key problems soon, they could have a long relegation battle on their hands.
Early-season victories over the likes of Aston Villa, Manchester United, Liverpool and Newcastle United offered serious hope that the Bees could compete this campaign, despite a summer exodus where they sold the likes of Bryan Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa, Christian Norgaard and Mark Flekken — not to mention losing manager Thomas Frank.
But since returning from the most recent international break, the picture is far more bleak.
Brentford have lost three of their last four matches, with their only solace coming in a 3-1 win at home against Burnley — a side themselves struggling, now on a run of six consecutive defeats.
The last two matches have seen Brentford lose 2-0 to both Arsenal and Frank’s Tottenham Hotspur. However, this lack of goals is an outlier, with the Bees comfortably mid-table for goals scored on 21, while they’re sixth for big chances created (25).
Igor Thiago has done a brilliant job of filling the void left by Wissa, Mbuemo and, looking further back, Ivan Toney, with only Erling Haaland (15) scoring more than his 11 goals this season.
Cheap goals hurting the Bees
What is really hurting Keith Andrews’ side is the goals they’re conceding, or more to the point, the cheap goals they’re conceding.
Saturday’s 2-0 loss to Spurs was a prime example, with the first coming from Xavi Simons being allowed to run in behind a completely out-of-position Sepp van den Berg before delivering a perfect cross to Richarlison.
The second was even worse, with Van den Berg losing possession far too easily in midfield, allowing Spurs to break, with Simons this time the scorer for his first Tottenham goal.
Interestingly, only Leeds United (3) have committed fewer errors leading to shots than Brentford’s four. However, the Londoners have the unwanted distinction of being the only team in the Premier League this season to see 100% of their errors converted to opposition goals.
What’s more, Brentford — who have kept just two clean sheets this season — have conceded a league-high three goals from counter-attacks and sit third for open-play goals conceded (15), while only Burnley (3) have scored more own goals (2).
Christian Norgaard departure sorely felt
The counter-attack goals, in particular, shouldn’t come as a surprise.
Last season, Norgaard was first among Brentford players for fouls (44), interceptions (49) and possessions won in the middle third (112), and second for tackles (79). All of those were at respective rates of 1.4, 1.56, 3.56 and 2.51 per 90 minutes.
Jordan Henderson has been a wonderful addition to the Brentford midfield in possession following Norgaard’s sale to Arsenal. The England international sits first among his teammates for final third passes completed (111) and big chances created (5), and third for passes completed (505).
However, he lacks the legs Norgaard offered, registering 0.79 fouls, 0.87 interceptions, 2.54 possessions won in the middle third and 1.27 tackles per 90 so far.
When Brentford lose the ball, they lack an enforcer who can shut down opposition breaks, whether by hook or by crook. That’s forcing their centre-backs to come out hunting the ball and, ultimately, leaving the backline exposed to ruthless effect.
Brentford need to cut out the errors and find some legs in midfield, or else risk sinking into a dogfight they may not be equipped for.
Whether the solutions to those problems come in the January transfer window or from options already at Andrews’ disposal remains to be seen.