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Squawka / Features / Aston Villa analysis: Are Unai Emery’s side currently punching above their weight?

Aston Villa analysis: Are Unai Emery’s side currently punching above their weight?

Aston Villa sit fourth in the Premier League after 12 games. The Villans have won eight of their last 10 matches across all competitions.

Unai Emery’s men got off to a torrid start in the 2025-26 campaign, losing three and drawing three of their opening six games in all competitions. They finally got their first victory at the back end of September against Bologna in the Champions League.

Villa also failed to score in their opening four Premier League games of the season, picking up just two points from two 0-0 draws in those fixtures.

However, since getting their first victory against Bologna, Villa have massively turned things around. Their current run has propelled the Villans to fourth in the Premier League with victories over the likes of Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City.

Emery’s build up principles

Emery sets his side up with a 4-2 base in build up. It splits the central defenders either side of the goalkeeper and utilises the full-backs on the same line as the double pivot to provide width and depth.

Villa put an emphasis on the usage of deep triangles in their build up, with the centre-back, full-back and holding midfielder on either side.

Further forward, Emery has been opting for the usage of split strikers this season. It allows both wingers to come narrow, one showing alongside Morgan Rogers in the centre while the other joins Ollie Watkins to stretch the pitch further forwards.

The idea is clear for Villa to lure the opposition towards their own box. They average the most touches in their own penalty area this season with 78.9 per 90 minutes, and the fifth-highest volume of touches in the defensive third (201.6 touches).

By doing this, Emery is hoping to open up space behind the opposition press, before switching the tempo and looking to play vertical through the lines, in order to generate artificial transitions, which we will touch on a bit later.

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The underlying data

While Emery has done well to get his side back on track, picking up points against a host of different sides, the underlying numbers still aren’t looking great.

Villa have only generated 10.94 Expected Goals this season, the third-lowest in the division with only Sunderland and Burnley generating less.

The Villans have the lowest xG per shot in the Premier League this season at 0.08, which goes hand in hand with their average shot distance of 17.9 yards so far this campaign, the fourth-furthest on average in the division.

While they are overachieving their xG so far this season by +4.06, scoring 15 goals in 12 games, Villa are also conceding far fewer than their xG suggests, conceding just 11 goals from 16.31 xG conceded.

Only Crystal Palace (-5.54 xG) have a better goals – xG metric than Villa who are currently sitting on -5.31 xG.

That being said, Villa are currently have an xG per shot conceded of 0.11, with only five teams doing better in this regard as things stand.

Diamond press & 4-4-2 midblock

The defensive approach has been an important factor to their turn around in form, transitioning nicely between their 4-4-2 midblock and a more aggressive diamond man for man pressing scheme.

When pressing high from goal kicks, Villa press in a 4-1-3-2 shape, often referred to as a diamond pressing shape.

The idea here is to retain a +1 in the defensive line (4v3), bringing the wingers narrow and keeping both the centre-forward and attacking midfielder close together to prevent central progression.

Villa will look to trap the opposition to one side, with the ball side centre-forward in the 4-1-3-2 then going to press the ball by arching their run, while the other centre-forward shifts across to cover the defensive midfield passing option.

From here, Emery’s side can lock on man for man, leaving the spare player on the opposite side of the pitch, allowing them to go man for man on the ball side while retaining the +1 in the last line.

When this press is disengaged, Villa often fall into a deeper 4-4-2 midblock, still with the intention of being compact and restricting central access.

A feature that was more prominent last campaign, but something that isn’t completely gone is the usage of a high defensive line, encouraging balls in behind the midblock to then contest.

When forced deep into their own half, the lowblock can at times look like a 6-4-0 against stronger opposition, with both wingers tucking in to the defensive line.

Artificial transitions

Now let’s finish off by returning to the idea of artificial transitions, something Emery looks to create by luring the opposition press into their own defensive third, before playing more vertical through the lines.

The key to these moments are the moments of “pausa” in deep build up and the ability of those pocket players to drop, receive and carry.

Both Emiliano Buendia and Rogers drop in to receive the ball between the lines, while the front two, usually consisting of Watkins and Evann Guessand/Donyell Malen simultaneously run in behind to stretch the lines between the oppositions defensive and midfield units.

These actions to stretch the lines create large spaces which emulate attacking transitions/counter attacks, a phase plenty of Villa players excel in.

While the data suggests Villa are overachieving currently being sat 4th in the Premier League, Emery is one of the better tacticians in the division, and his ability to platform his players in the best way to suit them will always give them a good chance of picking up results.

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