We’re in the 2026 World Cup quarter-finals and the possibility for penalties is increasing.
Four years ago, two of the four World Cup quarter-finals went all the way to penalties. Argentina knocked out the Netherlands en route to lifting the trophy, while Croatia knocked Brazil out after a shoot-out.
There have already been four penalty shootouts at this summer’s World Cup, including two by teams set to contest the quarter-finals. Spain vs Belgium is an intriguing game with the former’s defence. So it could possibly go all the way to penalties.
The question is, who would win?
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Spain vs Belgium penalty analysis
Spain World Cup penalty record
Spain will be hoping this game doesn’t go to penalties. La Roja have a terrible record in World Cup shootouts, the joint-worst record in the tournament’s history. They’ve lost four of their five World Cup penalty shootouts, with only the Netherlands matching their failures. Spain’s first taste of a World Cup penalty shootout came in 1986 when they faced, interestingly, Belgium in the quarter-finals. Eloy Olaya missed the only spot-kick of the shootout as Spain lost 5-4.
La Roja‘s next World Cup penalty shootout didn’t come until 2002, but it did bring them their first win. Republic of Ireland were the opponents in an uninspiring shootout, in which five penalties were missed. But Spain scored three of their five, with Gaizka Mendieta netting the winner. That wasn’t Spain’s only penalty shootout of the 2002 World Cup, as they were knocked out by that method by South Korea in the quarter-finals. Spain have also been knocked out of the past two World Cups on penalties. In 2018, Russia sent them packing in the last-16, before a defeat to Morocco at the stage stage in 2022. The latter saw Spain miss all three of their penalties.
| Category | Total |
|---|---|
| Penalty shootouts contested | 5 |
| Penalty shootouts won | 1 |
| Penalty shootouts lost | 4 |
| Penalties scored | 13 |
| Penatlies missed/saved | 9 |
Belgium World Cup penalty record
Belgium have only ever had one World Cup penalty shootout. In fact, they’ve only ever had one competitive penalty shootout. And we’ve already mentioned it. Belgium beat Spain on penatlies in the quarter-finals of the 1986 World Cup, after a 1-1 draw in the game. The Red Devils scored all five of their spot-kicks, and Leo Van der Elst was the winner, netting the final one to get them over the line. But goalkeeper Jean-Marie Pfaff was also a hero, saving Eloy Olaya’s effort earlier on in the shootout.
| Category | Total |
|---|---|
| Penalty shootouts contested | 1 |
| Penalty shootouts won | 1 |
| Penalty shootouts lost | 0 |
| Penalties scored | 5 |
| Penatlies missed/saved | 0 |
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Who will take Spain’s penalties?
Mikel Oyarzabal looks likely to be Spain’s first-choice penalty taker, having scored all three of his spot-kicks for La Roja last year. Overall in his senior career, Oyarzabal has only missed one of his 11 penalties excluding shootouts — and that was just his third attempt overall. Since the start of 2025, Oyarzabal has scored all eight penalties he has taken for club and country. The striker has a mixed record in shootouts, though. He has taken four penalties in shootouts overall, scoring two and missing two. He did score for Spain when they beat Switzerland on penalties at Euro 2020.
Lamine Yamal is also likely to step up, having scored his one penalty for Spain in the Uefa Nations League last summer. The Barcelona winger netted six times from the spot for his club side in 2025-26, while missing one. But he is did miss in the Uefa Nations League semi-final against the Netherlands last summer, and then didn’t take one in the final.
Mikel Merino could start the proceedings for Spain, having done so in both Uefa Nations League shootouts last summer. He scored both times and is four for four overall in shootouts.
Predicted Spain penalty order
- Mikel Merino
- Alex Baena
- Lamine Yamal
- Pedri
- Mikel Oyarzabal
Who will take Belgium’s penalties?
Romelu Lukaku stated that he wasn’t mentally ready to take Belgium’s last-gasp penalty in their win over Senegal. Youri Tielemans stepped up and scored, and he’s likely to start any potential shootout for Belgium. The Aston Villa midfielder has scored 26 penalties throughout his career, missing seven. He hasn’t been first-choice penalty taker for Aston Villa, but was a frequent scorer for Leicester City before his move. Tielemans does have a good record in penalty shootouts, scoring five of his six spot-kicks to date.
Lukaku does have a good record from the penalty spot, scoring 41 of his 48 attempts excluding shootouts. But he hasn’t taken a penalty in a match since last summer. He also missed his last two penalties in a shootout, with a record of six from nine overall. Many of those were a long time ago.
It’s a similar story for Leandro Trossard, who has missed his only in-game penalty for Arsenal — which was also his only spot-kick since 2024. The winger has also scored three of five penalties in shootouts, though.
Predicted Belgium penalty order
- Youri Tielemans
- Charles De Ketelaere
- Romelu Lukaku
- Leandro Trossard
- Kevin De Bruyne
Who will win if Spain vs Belgium goes to penalties?
Penalty shootouts are a mental game, and despite their World Cup failures, Spain’s experience may see them over the line should it go all the way. Even with Belgium’s only penalty shootout being a victory over Spain.
It may all come down to players’ experiences. And Belgium’s penalty records do not look good compared to Spain’s. Even when you look at the goalkeepers, all signs point to a Spain victory should it go all the way.
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