The 2026 World Cup Final is upon us.
Three World Cup Finals have been decided after a penalty shootout, since they were first introduced in 1982. The first was in 1994, with Brazil beating Italy on spot-kicks. Italy then won the 2006 World Cup Final against France after penalties. And, just four years ago, Argentina beat France on penalties to win the World Cup.
There have already been four penalty shootouts at the World Cup this summer, with only the 2022 tournament (five) having more in the competition’s history. Spain take on Argentina in a final matchup fuelled by narrative and history, and it could possible go all the way to penalties.
The question is, who would win?
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Spain vs Argentina penalty analysis
Spain World Cup penalty record
Spanish fans will likely be hoping their side can wrap up this game before it goes to penalties. Spain have the joint-worst record in World Cup penalty shootouts, losing four of their five — only Netherlands match their failures. La Roja had their first taste of a World Cup penalty shootout in 1986, when they faced Belgium in the quarter-finals. Eloy Olaya missed the only spot-kick of the shootout, with Spain losing 5-4.
Spain’s next World Cup penalty shootout didn’t come until 2002, but it did bring them their only win. Republic of Ireland were the opponents in a poor shootout, with five penalties missed across both sides. Spain did score three of their five spot-kicks, with Gaizka Mendieta netting the winner. And that wasn’t Spain’s only penalty shootout of the 2002 World Cup. La Roja were knocked out by that method by South Korea in the quarter-finals. Spain have also lost on penalties in each of the past two World Cups. Russia sent them packing in the last-16 in 2018, before a defeat to Morocco at the stage stage in 2022. Spain missed all three of their penalties against the Atlas Lions.
| Category | Total |
|---|---|
| Penalty shootouts contested | 5 |
| Penalty shootouts won | 1 |
| Penalty shootouts lost | 4 |
| Penalties scored | 13 |
| Penatlies missed/saved | 9 |
Argentina World Cup penalty record
Argentina have taken part in seven World Cup penalty shootouts, more than any other team. They’ve also won six of those, which is another World Cup record. And, as previously mentioned, they’re one of just three teams to win a World Cup Final after a penalty shootout. Argentina’s first taste of a World Cup penalty shootout came in Italy in 1990, and they actually had two in that tournament. In the quarter-finals, Argentina beat Yugoslavia 3-2 on penalties despite Diego Maradona missing from the spot. They then beat Italy 4-3 on penalties in the semi-finals, with Maradona scoring to put them on the brink.
Argentina’s next penalty shootout came in France in 1998, knocking England out in the last-16. Hernan Crespo missed in the shootout but Argentina held their nerve and won thanks to misses from Paul Ince and David Batty. Argentina suffered their first and only World Cup penalty shootout defeat in 2006, beaten by Germany — no surprises there. Roberto Ayala and Estevan Cambiasso both missed for Argentina, with the latter the decisive failure. But Argentina bounced back to win back-to-back shootouts against the Netherlands in 2014 and 2022. Then, of cours,e there was the 2022 World Cup Final, which Argentina won by beating France on penatlies thanks to Emiliano Marintez’s heroics.
| Category | Total |
|---|---|
| Penalty shootouts contested | 7 |
| Penalty shootouts won | 6 |
| Penalty shootouts lost | 1 |
| Penalties scored | 25 |
| Penatlies missed/saved | 6 |
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Who will take Spain’s penalties?
Mikel Oyarzabal seems to be Spain’s first-choice penalty taker, having scored a spot-kick in the semi-final against France. He also scored all three of his penalties for La Roja last year. Overall in his senior career, Oyarzabal has only missed one of his 12 penalties including shootouts — and that was just his third attempt overall. Oyarzabal does have a mixed record in penalty shootouts, though. He has taken four penalties in shootouts overall, scoring two and missing two. The striker did score for Spain when they beat Switzerland on penalties at Euro 2020.
Lamine Yamal is also likely to step up, having scored his one penalty for Spain in the Uefa Nations League last summer. The Barcelona winger netted six times from the spot for his club side in 2025-26, while missing one. But he is did miss in the Uefa Nations League semi-final against the Netherlands last summer, and then didn’t take one in the final.
Mikel Merino could start the proceedings for Spain, having done so in both Uefa Nations League shootouts last summer. He scored both times and is four for four overall in shootouts.
Predicted Spain penalty order
- Mikel Merino
- Alex Baena
- Lamine Yamal
- Pedri
- Mikel Oyarzabal
Who will take Argentina’s penalties?
Lionel Messi has missed two penalties at the World Cup this summer. And they’re often seen as his one kryptonite. But hell still be Argentina’s first taker. And he’s still scored 116 of his 150 penalties for club and country through his career. Messi scored four at the 2022 World Cup en route to Argentina lifting the trophy, including two during games in which he would also ascore in the shootout. In shootouts alone, Messi has scored 11 and 13 for club and country.
Lautaro Martinez should also be a guarantee for the shootout if he’s still on the pitch. The Inter Milan striker may save himself for the fifth kick, when it could matter most. Martinez has scored 19 of his 28 penalties in games for club and country, including one against Jordan earlier in the tournament. He has also scored three in five penalty shootouts, including two in two four Argentina.
Gonzalo Montiel has also taken a fair few penalties in shootouts for Argentina, always ready to put himself in the tense moments. And he has had success, scoring in the 2022 World Cup Final. Enzo Fernandez and Alexis Mac Allister will also no doubt throw their names in the hat, with the former having a decent record from the spot even with a few misses.
Predicted Argentina penalty order
- Lionel Messi
- Alexis Mac Allister
- Gonzalo Montiel
- Enzo Fernandez
- Lautaro Martinez
Who will win if Spain vs Argentina goes to penalties?
Penalty shootouts are all about mentality. And history may be enough to seal this one. Argentina know how to win World Cup penalty shootouts, and have done so on the biggest of occasions. They’ve also put the back-to-back Copa America shootout defeats well behind them.
Spain, then, will have to overcome their World Cup penalty shootout struggles. They’ve lost four of their pats seven shootouts, including one last year.
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