For the third straight season, Italy won’t be in the World Cup. This time following a loss to Bosnia on penalties.
The Azzurri relived their 2022 nightmare of the North Macedonia game and, once again, couldn’t make it past the play-offs.
It wasn’t in such heartbreaking fashion as last time – a stoppage time winner after a dominant 90 minutes. But tonight they did go 1-0 up through Moise Kean, only for Alessandro Bastoni to receive a red card later on in the first half and force them to play with 10 men for 75+ minutes.
Eventually, Bosnia found their way back into the game and equalised via Haris Tabakovic in the 79th minute. Let’s unpack all the action.
How did Bosnia vs Italy unfold?
Italy’s strong start
It took Italy just 15 minutes to score and there were clear signs of their intentions. They used a lot of long balls targeting their strikers – Mateo Retegui and especially Kean – to hold up play. It was a way of getting the team out of their own half, since Bosnia didn’t really sit deep and bothered their build-ups.
Both excelled at that and even tried to combine with ‘dummies’ and flick-ons for each other. Though their goal happened mostly because of Nikola Vasilj’s mistake, the attacking play started with a long pass from Gianluigi Donnarumma to Moise Kean.
After Vasilj’s poor pass, Nicolo Barella intercepted it and quickly played it to Kean. The striker wasted no time and sent a beautiful first-time shot into the top corner. Not only was it a stunning goal, but also clever.
The awareness that Nikola Katic’s tight presence and the pitch surface wouldn’t let him progress much farther had he taken a touch and carried it forward made him shoot as soon as receiving. What a decision that was.
The goal made the game easier for the Azzurri. Gennaro Gattuso counted on Bosnia’s difficulties taking the game to them and Italy’s possession tally became gradually lower. The hosts managed to take a lot of shots off, but very few of them actually brought danger to Donnarumma.
Bosnia’s clear strategy
Sergej Barbarez also had a clear strategy of his own, that lasted from the first to the last minute of the game.
Bosnia immediately looked to go long whenever recovering possession. 40-year-old Edin Dzeko was the most frequent target and sustained back-pressure well, winning five of his 10 duels.
There was a heavy emphasis on central play, especially early on. It’s where they made most of their damage against Wales – though they failed to capitalise on their big chances at Cardiff City Stadium.
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In the first half, in fact, 38% of their attacking actions came down the middle, as opposed to 37% on the right and 25% on the left.
For the rest of the game, however, it evened out in favour of the wings – especially the right one, to take advantage of Federico Dimarco’s defensive shortcomings.
But what stood out were the headers. Not only is that an area in which Bosnia excel, but also where Italy struggle mightily.
Six of their 13 shots in the first half came from headers. They also won 57% of their aerial duels inside the Azzurri’s penalty area. Though they dialed down on the headers for the rest of the game, the crosses were very much alive. They ended the game with a whopping 54 attempts, completing 10 of them.
This was their plan A, B and C. And they didn’t need anything else. Of course, it was nothing refined and they equalised much more due to piling on pressure than actually creating elaborate link-ups. But it was a strength of theirs, a weakness of their opponents and all they needed to get back into the game.
How Bastoni’s red card changed the dynamics
For much of the second half, it felt like Bastoni’s sending off actually helped Italy more than harmed them.
Early on, they were struggling to deal with crosses but there were a lot of things that played into that. Bosnia would often win second balls after clearing it forward, or catch Italy off their guard. Defenders running backwards, full-backs (an attacking minded one in Dimarco and an actual winger in Matteo Politano) out of position after charging forward, all sorts of scenarios.
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After the red card, however, Gattuso’s men stopped playing with the ball, which meant they never lost possession near their own goal. They were also expecting crosses and preparing for them.
But Bosnia kept trying, throwing things at the wall hoping they would stick. One did and it was all they needed. Still, they left space in behind and Italy almost got a second goal twice – one time with Kean, who went through on goal but placed it over the bar, and another with Dimarco, who shot it wide.
Another effect of the sending off was what we mentioned before. Bosnia managed to get central access at first, but with Italy defending with 10 men, those gaps mostly vanished. It led to more and more crosses and, subsequently, to the equaliser.
But it also meant that Edin Dzeko could play the whole game. It would probably not have been the case had Italy played with 11 men. The veteran striker then would have had to work harder out of possession, close passing lanes, pressing opposing defenders and whatnot.
Since that wasn’t what the game required, he stayed on for the whole 120 minutes. He did appear to injure his shoulder on the last play and wasn’t even in contention to take one of the penalties. But his presence was crucial to the equaliser and what Bosnia wanted to do in general.
Of course, the red card dictated how the final 75 minutes went. And Italy did manage to take an early lead. But the 44 minutes in which they played with 11 men, overall, weren’t the most encouraging.
Bosnia found ways to threaten the Azzurri and replicated them over and over until they scored. In the end, a draw was a fair result. But credit to the hosts for getting it done on penalties.