Paraguay and Australia were both happy to settle for a goalless draw in California, with both teams progressing to the knock-out stages of the 2026 World Cup as a result.
In a game of very few chances, Paraguay’s defensive approach was enough to earn them a point that will send them through as one of the best third-placed teams.
Australia attempted to force the issue in the first-half but were met with a proverbial wall of red and white, with Cristian Volpato coming closest to breaking the deadlock with a long-range strike.
In the second half the South Americans did advance more – but it was still the Socceroos who came closest through a late Jordan Bos effort that flew wide of the post.
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Paraguay’s switch to a back five
Straight from kick-off, it was clear to see that Paraguay had shifted from the 4-4-2 shape that they had used in their first two games to a 5-3-2 in order to match-up an Australia side that have started with a back five in their first two games.
While Paraguay have always been comfortable without the ball, perhaps the win over Turkey has seen Gustavo Alfaro sink further into a pragmatic mindset. Albirroja enjoyed just 22% possession in the second half of the win over Turkey and managed to escape with the three points — but is that now serving as the South American side’s blueprint for success?
In the first-half, they created just one chance and registered just one shot – and they had little interest in trying to win the ball back. While Australia averaged a defensive action for every 10 passes in the first period, Paraguay were happy to allow the Socceroos almost 22 passes per defensive action by contrast.
Faced with the dilemma of risk versus reward, Alfaro’s approach was as risk-averse as imaginable. Now though, his side will have to face one of the group-winners in the Round of 32, rather than whichever team finishes second in Group G.
They were more progressive as the game went on, without ever creating a big chance in the game.
Reshuffle allows Bos to flourish
While Australia toiled in possession, the lack of genuine threat became obvious – but one man who continued to push forward and look to create chances was Feyenoord’s Jordan Bos.
It made sense to target Paraguay’s left side here, rather than going up against Juan Jose Caceres who won no fewer than nine tackles in Albirroja’s win over Turkey last time out. While Bos is usually a left-back both with club and country, Jacob Italiano’s absence allowed for Australia’s rising star to switch to the opposite flank.
And it seemed to be working. It was a surprise to see Cristian Volpato withdrawn at half-time, as the two European-based youngsters were doubling up well on Paraguay’s left-back Alexandro Maidana. They shared a total of 16 passes and combined to create one of the few genuine openings of the first-half — though Volpato’s long-range effort was comfortably saved by Orlando Gil.
Completing four of his seven attempted take-ons and creating a joint-match high of three chances, he was a real threat and even fashioned two chances for himself late on in the game, having one shot blocked and seeing another fly just wide of the post. The ex-Melbourne City man wasn’t too bad out of possession either, winning two tackles and five aerial duels.
Almiron dearly missed
Although he’d had little effect in the first two games, it was clear to see how much Paraguay missed Miguel Almiron in this game. The creative dependency weighed heavy on the shoulders of Julio Enciso, who became guilty of trying to do too much.
In the first half in particular, the former Brighton & Hove Albion man was forced to dribble into dead ends with a lack of support and service. He attempted no fewer than six take-ons before the break, failing to complete a single one. He managed to complete two in the second half from a further five attempts.
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Enciso’s partner in attack, the 34 year old Independiente forward Gabriel Avalos, was something of a passenger. Having featured for just a couple of minutes in the tournament so far, he managed just 20 touches and completed only six passes before being withdrawn on 67 minutes.
Mauricio was more of a threat of the bench, taking two shots and completing six final-third passes, but the lack of cutting edge was evident. They’ll be delighted to welcome the former Newcastle United man back in the Round of 32.
Flaw in Fifa’s system
While teams like Scotland watch on, waiting to see if they’ll progress to the next round, watching games such as these where a draw evidently services both teams must be frustrating for them.
There’s no getting away from the fact that this was a rather drab affair, with just five shots on target and zero big chances created. As much as the expanded tournament has handed opportunities for smaller nations to flourish, it has also created the conditions for less than exciting games such as this.
It does beg the question – if teams know that a draw is enough to send them through, where’s the incentive to push for a win?
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