Burnley could be a bad managerial hire away from a double relegation – the third the Championship would have seen in succession, following Luton and Leicester’s double dips from the last two campaigns.
Since relegation from the Premier League last season, their recruitment has been both not good enough and far too late, with 10 of the 12 additions since the drop arriving in August or September.
Eight of the 11 most-used players this season, in terms of minutes, were at the club last year, and part of the reason they went down.
Of the other three, Kyle Walker has been perceived to look uninterested at times, or is at least on his last legs, and defender Igor Julio has been a mixed bag – although versatile forward Largie Ramazani looks a decent signing.
The Clarets have looked disjointed and imbalanced: goalkeepers that aren’t up to standard, no left-backs, centre-backs in midfield, midfielders in the No.10 role and sometimes wide players up top.
With those imbalances, the team has conceded the most goals in the Championship with 25, and holds the second-highest xG Against in the division at 23.67.
Going forward, meanwhile, the picture is slightly better: they rank 10th for shots taken (164), joint-11th for shots on target (49) and 16th for shot accuracy (41.53%).
In creative metrics, Burnley are 10th for chances created (120), 14th for passes completed in the opposing half (1,919), 11th for forward passes (1,754) and 15th for touches in the opposition box.
Overall, they’ve demonstrated middling attacking productivity, with 17.16 xG For and 16 goals scored. So, in layman’s terms, they’re exactly where they deserve to be, based on performances.
Nicky Hayen might accept some criticism for how the team has looked, but it’s also a reflection on the footballing operation at the club.
Until Diego López was appointed as Chief Football Officer yesterday, there had been no official word on recruitment figures.
For a club representing a small, humble and honest Lancashire town like Burnley, that lack of transparency from the top is deeply problematic, and it shows why the fanbase protest so fervently against ALK’s ownership regime.
Alan Pace seems to want to be transparent when it’s profitable, like for an Amazon documentary, but not when it can help build trusting relationships with the people who dedicate their lives to travelling the country to support their club, in an economically challenged area.
Pace has loaded the club with unsustainable debt, overseen excessive squad turnover, been unable to keep key personnel happy, diluted his focus with his simultaneous ownership of Espanyol and communicated erratically, and poorly, with the fanbase.
With that in mind, it’s not the greatest attraction, although the appointment of López looks a small step forward.
The Spaniard’s arrival at RC Lens correlated with their rise to become one of the closest teams to PSG in Ligue 1, and his European knowledge may help improve the recruitment from abroad.
That recruitment begins with a head coach, and Fabio Celestini is the current favourite, having led Basel from the bottom of the Swiss Super League at the time of his appointment in October 2023 to a domestic double just 18 months later.
According to Matt Scrafton in the Burnley Express, the 50-year-old is big on tactical detail, with highly structured build-up play: his sides want the ball, but aren’t afraid to play forward quickly when early attacks are on.
The multilingual manager likes a 4-2-3-1 shape, which is what Burnley have been playing, but he’ll be keen to redress the balance, which will help when the likes of Anel Ahmedhodzic, Bashir Humphreys, Josh Cullen and Zeki Amdouni return.
So, there are big problems off the pitch, but favourite Celestini might just be able to solve one or two of them on it.