After the most bizarre, controversial, and topsy-turvy build-up in its 40-year history, the Championship play-off final will take place at Wembley between Hull City and Middlesbrough in an absolute scorcher on Saturday afternoon (3.30pm).
Match-going fans will need a hefty dollop of suncream and nerves of steel as they prepare to watch one of the most eagerly anticipated second-tier finals in recent times.
Unfortunately for Southampton supporters their expelled club will not be walking out under the Wembley Arch, instead their beaten semi-final opponents Middlesbrough have been given a second stab at the play-offs following the findings of the Spygate saga. As for Hull, who have been the unfortunate third party in all of this, they will be looking to block out the drama and seize their opportunity to reach the Premier League.
This will be the first time in seven years that neither the 3rd nor 4th-placed side has won promotion, with 5th-placed Middlesbrough and 6th-placed Hull City instead battling for a place in the Premier League – read on for the standout stats ahead of the final.
READ: Spygate, tactics & odds for Championship play-off final
Stats you might see
Hull City stats
From survival scrappers to Premier League dreamers
What a stunning transformation it has been for Hull City. Just 12 months ago, the Tigers survived the Championship by the narrowest of margins, staying up only on goal difference. Now, they stand one game away from a return to the Premier League for the first time since 2016-17.
Perfect play-off pedigree
History is on Hull’s side when it comes to the play-offs. The Tigers have won promotion in both of their previous Championship play-off campaigns, in 2007-08 and 2015-16. The only other club to feature in multiple Championship play-offs and maintain a 100% promotion record are West Ham.
Wembley comforts
Hull’s Wembley record offers further reason for optimism. They club have won three of their four matches at the national stadium, with their only defeat coming against Arsenal in the 2014 FA Cup final.
Defying the 6th curse
However, Sergej Jakirovic’s side are aiming to buck a significant trend. Having only secured 6th place on the final day, Hull are attempting to become the first team since Blackpool in 2009-10 to finish in this position and go on to win the Championship play-offs. In fact, since the Championship rebrand in 2004-05, only two teams finishing 6th have gone on to secure promotion. Hull are also the first 6th-placed side to reach the final since Derby County in 2018-19.
Jakirovic chasing history
Speaking of Jakirovic, he will have his sights set on becoming the first Bosnian to manage in the Premier league.
McBurnie leads the charge
At the heart of Hull’s promotion push has been Ollie McBurnie. The Scot scored 17 league goals during the regular season, second only to Golden Boot winner Zan Vipotnik’s 23. McBurnie also registered 24 goal involvements overall – again only bettered by Vipotnik’s 26 – while no Championship player recorded more shots on target than his 40. He’s yet to fire in the play-offs, but ended the standard season with five goals in five games.
Middlesbrough stats
Second chance saloon
In the opposite corner we have Middlesbrough, who find themselves in a truly unique position. After losing 2-1 in the semi-finals to Southampton, Boro have been reinstated to the competition following the expulsion of sinners Saints, who were chucked out of the play-offs for spying. As a result, Kim Hellberg’s side now have the chance to become the first club ever to win promotion after losing the play-off semi-finals.
Play-off problems
Middlesbrough have not played in the Premier League since 2016-17, which remains their only appearance since 2008-09. The play-offs have been a thorn in the side for Boro, who have lost each of their last four second-tier campaigns (1991, 2015, 2018 & 2023) since their first success in 1987-88, when they overcame Chelsea when the format was a two-legged final.
Rewriting the record books?
History is not entirely on their side, either. Since the Championship rebrand in 2004-05, only four teams finishing 5th have gone on to win promotion, with Aston Villa in 2018-19 the most recent. However, after being handed an unexpected second chance, Boro will feel they have a unique opportunity to rewrite the record books.
Boro can, at least, draw on a decent recent record against Hull City, having won three of the last four meetings and five of the last eight.
For and against
Statistically, Middlesbrough have been one of the Championship’s standout teams this season. No side averaged more possession (59.6%), attempted more shots (783), completed more passes (20,888), attempted more passes (24,723), completed more through balls (68), or completed more final-third passes (5,794).
Yet for all their dominance, Middlesbrough have often lacked a clinical edge in front of goal. Their 17-shot first half in the goalless first leg against Southampton perfectly illustrated both their attacking threat and their wastefulness.
Big boost but major absence
That issue is made more difficult by the absence of Tommy Conway, whose 13 league goals made him Boro’s second-highest scorer before an ankle injury ruled him out of the final.
There is better news, though, with Championship Player of the Season Hayden Hackney expected to return after a two-month absence. Hackney has contributed 12 goal involvements this season and leads the division for completed final-third passes with 848.
Morgan Whittaker remains Middlesbrough’s leading scorer with 14 goals and has been one of the division’s busiest attacking players, registering 109 shots this season – second only to Leicester City’s Abdul Fatawu.
