Spain travel to Stadion Poljud in Split on Tuesday at 7.45pm aiming to make it four wins from four in Nations League Group A3, three points clear of England at the top. Third-placed Croatia, meanwhile, need a response after the heaviest defeat in their history.
Anthony Eadson’s Croatia vs Spain predictions, best bets and score prediction are below.
Premium Tips
Anthony Eadson has picked out two Premium Tips for Croatia vs Spain, including a Lamine Yamal goal at 6/5.
| Premium Tip | Odds | Why we’re backing it |
|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal to score anytime | 6/5 (bet365) | Lamine Yamal has scored in all three of Spain’s Nations League games this window, netting four times in total. He struck in the second minute at Wembley, scored twice in the 4-1 win over Croatia in Seville and opened the scoring after six minutes against the Czech Republic, despite coming off at half-time. The Barcelona forward now has 11 goals in 36 caps. Croatia have also conceded 12 goals in three Group A3 games and have let in at least one in each of their last five matches, with no clean sheet since June. With Ferran Torres and Nico Williams both out injured, Yamal looks Spain’s go-to scorer, and bet365 offer 6/5. |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11/4 (Sky Bet) | Goals have flowed in both teams’ recent games. Croatia’s last two matches finished 4-1 to Spain and 7-0 to England, producing 12 goals, and Bilic’s side have conceded 12 in three Group A3 games. Spain’s three Nations League wins have featured five, five and four goals, with La Roja scoring 10 and conceding four. This fixture also has a habit of producing goals: four of the last six meetings have had five or more, including a 6-0 Spain win in 2018, a 3-2 Croatia win the same year, a 5-3 Spain win after extra time at Euro 2020 and last week’s 4-1. Over 4.5 goals is 11/4 with Sky Bet. |
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware — gambleaware.org · Odds correct at time of publishing.
How Croatia go into the game
Croatia sit third in Group A3 on three points after a 2-1 win in Prague on matchday one, when Luka Modric and Marco Pasalic scored. Since then, however, Slaven Bilic’s side have lost 4-1 to Spain in Seville and 7-0 to England in Rijeka, the heaviest defeat in Croatia’s history as an independent nation, which Bilic described as a “collective blackout”.
Bilic’s team have now lost six of their last 10 matches and have conceded in each of their last five. Croatia report no new injury concerns after the England game, although Josip Juranovic and Martin Erlic withdrew injured before the window began. As a result of earlier bookings, Luka Vuskovic, Marco Pasalic, Josip Misic, Petar Sucic and Marin Pongracic are all at risk of suspension, while Modric, who came off before the hour against England, is set to win his 206th cap.
How Spain go into the game
Spain top Group A3 with nine points from nine after a 3-2 win at Wembley, a 4-1 victory over Croatia in Seville and a 3-1 home win against the Czech Republic in Oviedo. Luis de la Fuente’s world champions have won their last 10 matches, a run that includes the 1-0 extra-time win over Argentina in the World Cup final, and they are unbeaten in all 15 games in 2026.
Injuries have hit the squad, though. Ferran Torres (ankle), Nico Williams (thigh) and Alex Grimaldo all withdrew before Saturday’s win over the Czech Republic, while Pedro Porro withdrew injured before the window began and Eric Garcia left camp with a knee problem after the Wembley game, and Real Madrid forward Carlos Espi replaced Torres. In addition, De la Fuente rested Pau Cubarsi on Saturday, so he should return, and took off Yamal and Alex Baena at half-time for tactical reasons.
Croatia vs Spain head-to-head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/26 | Spain | 4-1 | Croatia |
| 15/06/24 | Spain (N) | 3-0 | Croatia |
| 18/06/23 | Croatia (N) | 0-0 | Spain |
| 28/06/21 | Croatia (N) | 3-5 | Spain |
| 15/11/18 | Croatia | 3-2 | Spain |
Spain hold the edge in this fixture, winning three of the last five meetings and beating Croatia on penalties after a 0-0 draw in the 2023 Nations League final. Croatia’s last win over Spain came in November 2018, a 3-2 home victory, and La Roja have scored at least three times in three of the last five meetings.
Croatia vs Spain predictions & betting tips
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal to score anytime | 6/5 (bet365) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Has scored four goals in Spain’s three Nations League games, including two against Croatia |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11/4 (Sky Bet) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Croatia’s last two games produced 12 goals and four of the last six meetings had five or more |
| Spain over 2.5 team goals | 1/1 (Paddy Power) | ⭐⭐ | Spain have scored at least three in all three Group A3 games |
| Spain to win and both teams to score | 17/10 (BoyleSports) | ⭐⭐ | Spain have won all three group games but conceded in each of them |
| Correct score: Croatia 1-4 Spain | 14/1 (bet365) | ⭐⭐ | A repeat of last week’s 4-1 Spain win in Seville |
Croatia vs Spain score prediction
Spain have scored at least three goals in all three Group A3 games, and Croatia’s leaky defence should give Yamal plenty of chances, although the hosts have found the net in two of their three group matches. Score prediction: Croatia 1-4 Spain.
Read more:
- Latest football news
- Football betting tips
- Best betting sites
- Best free bet offers
- Football accumulator tips
Latest News
