Tottenham Hotspur are one of three teams set to score in the Premier League this season.
Spurs have taken just one point from their opening three games, blanking in defeats to Brentford and Newcastle United, while enduring a goalless draw against Nottingham Forest.
There was optimism heading into the season for Tottenham, who were embarking on their first full campaign under Roberto De Zerbi. The north London club have suffered back-to-back 17th-placed finishes and just escaped relegation last season.
Tottenham spent big in the summer in a bid to turn their fortunes around. But they are struggling again, particularly in front of goal. And the future doesn’t look bright.
Tottenham’s goal worries
More of the same
Of the three teams yet to score in the Premier League this season, Tottenham have come closest. Not that it will be any comfort to Tottenham fans still awaiting that first league goal. De Zerbi’s men have taken 37 shots and hit the target 10 times, ranking closer to mid-table for both metrics. It was a similar situation last season, with Tottenham ranking 14th for shots (436) and 13th for shots on target (146). And that doesn’t make for good reading.
Tottenham are one of the eight teams to have held more of the ball than their opponents this season, with 58.87% possession on average. This is mirrored by their 46 open-play sequences with at least 10 passes. Spurs rank sixth in the Premier League for that metric. And they rank seventh for their 409 final third passes attempted. De Zerbi has his team playing the way the fans will want. They’re just missing the final product.
But that’s the most important thing. And Tottenham are failing spectacularly. Tottenham have the worst Expected Goals underperformance in the Premier League so far this season. They have posted 2.86 xG so far, which is already the fifth-worst in the league. But, of course, that has resulted in no goals. Tottenham also rank fourth-worst for their 1.80 post-shot xG — they’ve reduced their chances of scoring by -1.06 based on their shot placement. A negative difference isn’t out of the ordinary, though, with 12 of the 20 Premier League teams having a lower post-shot xG than xG this season.
Tottenham do rank fifth for their set-piece xG of 1.11 in the league this season, which accounts for 38.81% of their total xG. But they drop to just 0.22 post-shot xG from set-pieces. The negative difference of -0.89 is the worst in the league. And we’ve seen how important set-pieces are becoming in modern football.
The guilty parties
When you look at who has been having Tottenham’s chances, it only gets worse. Right-back Pedro Porro leads Tottenham for shots in the Premier League this season, with six. He’s only played two games. Omar Marmoush and Mathys Tel rank joint-second with five shots, the former having joined Tottenham after the first match. Only one Tottenham payer has managed more than one shot on target too. That’s Mikey Moore, who had three in the opening defeat to Brentford, and has totalled just 90 minutes.
The defenders are the ones getting the most xG too. Micky van de Ven leads Tottenham with 0.67 xG in the Premier League this season, though he’s yet to hit the target. Porro and Marmoush come in at joint-second on 0.44 xG, with the former turning that to 0.63 post-shot xG. Marmoush’s post-shot xG drops down to 0.14, showing his finishing hasn’t been great so far.
But Marmoush isn’t the only player whose shot placement has been letting them down. Of all 14 players to have taken a shot for Tottenham in the league this season, only three have improved their chances of scoring based on shot placement. Porro has upped his 0.44 xG to 0.63 xG, Moore’s 0.25 xG increases to 0.67 post-shot xG, and Jan Paul van Hecke’s 0.13 xG becomes 0.22 post-shot xG. Again, three defenders on the list.
Of the attacking players, Solanke (-0.39), Marmoush (-0.30), Mathys Tel (-0.14), Mohammed Kudus (-0.09) and Savio (-0.03) have all decreased their chances of scoring. Aside from Moore’s 0.25 increase, of course. That doesn’t make for easy reading.
Why Tottenham need to start worrying
It would be bold and somewhat reactive to predict another relegation battle for Tottenham this season. But the current trends aren’t great.
As mentioned earlier, they are posting similar numbers and having the same issues as last season. Although they spent big in the summer transfer window, Tottenham didn’t really address their biggest problem.
Marmoush was an excellent goalscorer for Eintracht Frankfurt but stalled at Manchester City. The Egyptian has scored 10 goals in 39 Premier League games, at an average of 0.44 per 90 minutes. He’s posted 9.59 xG, which has dropped to 7.12 post-shot xG. Again, his finishing massively letting him down — even if he has scored more goals than both his xG and post-shot xG.
Savio also isn’t the goalscoring winger Tottenham need. He only scored two goals in 54 Premier League games, from 6.96 xG (down to 6.52 post-shot xG). Tottenham will hope he can create more chances for them, but they still need a finisher.
Then there’s the issue with Richarlison. The Brazilian was Tottenham’s top scorer in the league last season with 11 goals. He also led the club for xG (9.1) and post-shot xG (9.99). But he’s not in their Premier League squad, after expressing his desire to leave in the summer. Even if a move away doesn’t materialise, Richarlison won’t be able to play in the Premier League — or even the Carabao Cup — until January at the earliest.