France-
1Kylian Mbappé8 - 2Ousmane Dembélé5
- 3Mikel Oyarzabal4
- 4Bradley Barcola2
- 5Mikel Merino2
- 6Álex Baena1
- 7Pedro Porro1
- 8Lamine Yamal1
- 9Désiré Doué1
- 10Fabián Ruiz1
- 1Kylian Mbappé30
- 2Lamine Yamal23
- 3Mikel Oyarzabal20
- 4Michael Olise17
- 5Ousmane Dembélé16
- 6Désiré Doué11
- 7Ferran Torres10
- 8Dani Olmo10
- 9Álex Baena9
- 10Adrien Rabiot7
- 1Rodri14
- 2Dayot Upamecano11
- 3Aurélien Tchouaméni10
- 4Pedro Porro8
- 5Jules Koundé7
- 6Pedri6
- 7Lamine Yamal6
- 8Marcos Llorente5
- 9Désiré Doué5
- 10Michael Olise5
- 1Michael Olise5
- 2Kylian Mbappé3
- 3Marc Cucurella2
- 4Ousmane Dembélé2
- 5Adrien Rabiot1
- 6Ferran Torres1
- 7Dani Olmo1
- 8Álex Baena1
- 9Aymeric Laporte1
- 10Bradley Barcola1
- 1Kylian Mbappé16
- 2Ousmane Dembélé15
- 3Michael Olise12
- 4Désiré Doué11
- 5Pedri9
- 6Álex Baena9
- 7Pedro Porro9
- 8Rodri9
- 9Dani Olmo7
- 10Bradley Barcola7
- 1Rodri597
- 2Pau Cubarsí521
- 3Aymeric Laporte461
- 4Dayot Upamecano347
- 5Pedri344
- 6William Saliba298
- 7Marc Cucurella280
- 8Michael Olise280
- 9Adrien Rabiot277
- 10Jules Koundé252
- 1Lamine Yamal21
- 2Michael Olise15
- 3Bradley Barcola11
- 4Kylian Mbappé10
- 5Désiré Doué7
- 6Dani Olmo5
- 7Ousmane Dembélé5
- 8Pedri4
- 9Ferran Torres3
- 10Pedro Porro3
- 1Dayot Upamecano12
- 2Aymeric Laporte11
- 3Pedri8
- 4Adrien Rabiot6
- 5William Saliba6
- 6Pedro Porro5
- 7Aurélien Tchouaméni5
- 8Pau Cubarsí5
- 9Marc Cucurella4
- 10Ibrahima Konaté3
France- William Saliba
SpainNo absentees
France vs Spain predictions point to the tightest semi-final this World Cup could have produced. The two outstanding teams in the tournament meet on Tuesday 14th July at AT&T Stadium, Arlington. Kick-off is scheduled for 8pm (UK time).
France have won all six of their games, scoring 16 goals and conceding just twice. Spain arrive unbeaten with five clean sheets from six, having let in one solitary goal all tournament. Kylian Mbappe adds the individual subplot. His eight goals have him level with Lionel Messi at the top of the Golden Boot race. Something has to give in Texas, and the numbers say it will not give easily.
France vs Spain predictions & betting tips
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe to score first | 9/2 @ bet365 (18.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Mbappe has scored the opening goal in each of France’s last two matches. His 70th-minute penalty settled the last-16 tie against Paraguay before his 60th-minute strike broke Morocco’s resistance in the quarter-final. The France captain has eight goals from 5.16 Expected Goals (xG), a level of overperformance only the very best finishers sustain. He has taken 30 shots and put 19 on target, more than any other player on either side. Spain’s defence is the meanest at the tournament, but France do not need volume when their captain is this clinical. If anyone breaks the deadlock in Arlington, the evidence says it is Mbappe. |
| Mikel Merino to score anytime | 4/1 @ Betfair (20%) | ⭐⭐ | Merino has become Spain’s man for the biggest moments. His 91st-minute header eliminated Portugal in the last-16, then his 88th-minute strike beat Belgium in the quarter-final. That is two goals from just 136 minutes on the pitch, with three of his four shots hitting the target. Whether starting or arriving from the bench, the midfielder keeps finding decisive positions when knockout games open up late. Spain have made a habit of striking in the closing stages, and Merino is the player executing it. At 4/1, the tournament’s most reliable clutch scorer looks a big price to do it again. |
Odds correct at time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
How both teams head into France vs Spain
France
France have been ruthless. They topped their group by beating Senegal 3-1, Iraq 3-0 and Norway 4-1, then moved through the knockouts without conceding. Sweden were dispatched 3-0, Paraguay edged out 1-0 and Morocco beaten 2-0 in the quarter-final. Three knockout wins, three clean sheets.
The Morocco game followed a now familiar pattern. France stayed patient through a goalless first half before Mbappe struck on the hour and Ousmane Dembele added a second six minutes later. Dembele’s numbers deserve attention in their own right. He has five goals from just 1.39 xG, punishing half-chances that other forwards would waste.
The platform behind the front line has been just as impressive. France have taken 110 shots, created 17 big chances and averaged 58.4% possession. Mike Maignan, meanwhile, has been asked to make only nine saves in six matches. Opponents are not just failing to score against France. They are barely testing them.
Spain
Spain’s tournament has been a study in control. A goalless draw with Cabo Verde was followed by a 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia and a 1-0 victory against Uruguay. The knockouts brought a 3-0 dismissal of Austria, a 1-0 win over Portugal and a 2-1 quarter-final defeat of Belgium. That Belgium game produced the only goal Spain have conceded in six matches.
The underlying numbers reveal a curiosity, though. Spain lead the tie on chance creation with 15.19 xG, yet they have scored just 11 times. No side left in the tournament is leaving more goals out there. Lamine Yamal embodies it, with one goal from 23 shots and 2.82 xG. Mikel Oyarzabal has been more efficient, converting four of his 20 attempts.
Which is where Merino comes in. Spain’s habit of dominating without killing games off has twice left them needing a late hero, and twice the midfielder has delivered. His winners against Portugal and Belgium arrived in the 91st and 88th minutes. Spain control matches for 85 minutes and win them in the last five.
France team news
Didier Deschamps has barely needed to change a settled side. Maignan has started every match in goal. Jules Kounde, William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano and Lucas Digne have formed the first-choice back four, with Theo Hernandez providing the alternative on the left.
Adrien Rabiot has anchored five of the six games in midfield, with Manu Kone and Aurelien Tchouameni sharing the other holding role. Michael Olise has started all six matches and leads the supporting cast, while Desire Doue and Bradley Barcola have rotated on the opposite flank.
Mbappe and Dembele pick themselves. Between them they have scored 13 of France’s 16 goals at this World Cup.
Spain team news
Luis de la Fuente has been even more consistent. Unai Simon, Pau Cubarsi, Aymeric Laporte and Marc Cucurella have started all six matches, with Pedro Porro preferred to Marcos Llorente at right-back. Rodri has anchored every game in midfield, and Pedri has started five.
Yamal and Oyarzabal lead the attack, with Alex Baena and Dani Olmo competing for the remaining creative role. Nico Williams has been limited to cameos from the bench.
The selection question is Merino. He has started just once, but his match-winning contributions in the last two rounds make a compelling case for promotion in Arlington.
Head-to-Head
This fixture is a rematch of the Euro 2024 semi-final, won 2-1 by Spain in Munich on their way to the title, the night Yamal announced himself with a stunning long-range goal. Spain also edged a remarkable 5-4 Nations League semi-final between the sides in June 2025. Tuesday brings their first World Cup meeting since 2006, when France won 3-1 in the last-16. Spain hold the recent edge, but France have never lost to them on this stage.
Which side will advance to the final?
France enter as favourites at a general 13/10, with Spain available at 2/1 and bigger. The market cannot separate two teams who have conceded three goals between them across 12 matches. Both defences have been near impenetrable, which is precisely why we are backing moments of individual quality to decide it.
We’re backing Mbappe to strike first at 9/2 with bet365. He has opened the scoring in each of France’s last two knockout wins, and his 19 shots on target lead everyone on the pitch. Nobody at this tournament has been more clinical with the chances that matter.
For the bigger price, Merino to score anytime at 4/1 with Betfair is the value play. Spain’s late-game surges have become their signature, and the same player keeps applying the finish. If this semi-final is still in the balance entering the final ten minutes, history says Spain’s super-sub will have his moment.
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