We’re in the 2026 World Cup quarter-finals and the possibility for penalties is increasing.
Four years ago, two of the four World Cup quarter-finals went all the way to penalties. Argentina knocked out the Netherlands en route to lifting the trophy, while Croatia knocked Brazil out after a shoot-out.
There have already been four penalty shootouts at this summer’s World Cup, including two by teams set to contest the quarter-finals. France vs Morocco is the first game of the quarter-finals, and given the quality of the two teams, it could take penalties to separate them.
The question is, who would win?
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France vs Morocco penalty analysis
France World Cup penalty record
France have taken part in five World Cup penalty shootouts since they were first introduced in 1978. In fact, they were involved in the first-ever World Cup penalty shootout at the 1982 tournament. Of course, they were beaten by West Germany although France did take the lead in the shootout. But France did win their next shootout, at the very next World Cup. Brazil were the opponents this time, in the second-ever World Cup penalty shootout, and Luis Fernandez scored the winner with the last their five.
It wasn’t until 1998 that France faced their next penalty shootout, facing Italy in the quarter-finals. Fabien Barthez was the hero, saving Luigi Di Biagio’s final penalty to send France through en route to lifting the trophy. Unfortunately, France have lost their last two penalty shootouts. Italy got their own back (and then some) in 2006, beating France on penalties to lift the trophy. David Trezeguet missed the only spot-kick in the shootout. And, four years ago, France lost another World Cup Final on penalties, beaten 4-2 by Argentina.
| Category | Total |
|---|---|
| Penalty shootouts contested | 5 |
| Penalty shootouts won | 2 |
| Penalty shootouts lost | 3 |
| Penalties scored | 17 |
| Penatlies missed/saved | 7 |
Morocco World Cup penalty record
Morocco have already won a penalty shootout at the 2026 World Cup. They beat Netherlands 3-2 in their shootout in the last-32. That was despite Morocco missing their first penalty, through Neil El Aynaoui. Achraf Hakimi also missed, but Netherlands missed three spot-kicks allowing Ismael Saibari to score the winner.
That was just Morocco’s second penalty shootout in World Cups, but it maintained their perfect record. Their first came in Qatar in 2022 as part of their run to the semi-finals. Morocco held Spain to a goalless draw and Yassine Bounou became the hero in the shootout. He saved two of Spain’s three penalties, with the other hitting the post, as Morocco won the shootout 3-0.
| Category | Total |
|---|---|
| Penalty shootouts contested | 2 |
| Penalty shootouts won | 2 |
| Penalty shootouts lost | 0 |
| Penalties scored | 6 |
| Penatlies missed/saved | 3 |
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Who will take France’s penalties?
Kylian Mbappe is France’s main penalty taker. He has already scored one penalty at the World Cup, in normal time to secure a 1-0 win over Paraguay in the last-16. Mbappe also scored in the penalty shootout defeat to Argentina in 2022, one of just two Frenchman to convert. The other, Randal Kolo Muani, isn’t in the squad this summer. Mbappe has an excellent record from the spot in normal time, netting 65 of his 79 penalties. In shootouts, Mbappe has scored four from five for club and country, with his only miss being the decider against Switzerland at Euro 2020.
A lot of the current France squad do have experience in penalty shootouts. And they have kept a similar order. Aurelien Tchouameni is never shy to step up, even having missed a penalty in the 2022 World Cup final. He did score in the Uefa Nations League quarter-final win over Croatia in 2025. It’s a similar story for Jules Kounde. The defender missed in the win over Croatia but had scored against Portugal at Euro 2024. They’ll both no doubt take penalties so it come to it.
Ousmane Dembele is another strong penalty taker. The 29-year-old has often had to play second fiddle across his career, meaning he’s only taken 11 penalties. But Dembele has scored eight of them. He has also scored nine of 10 in shootouts.
Predicted France penalty order
- Kylian Mbappe
- Aurelien Tchouameni
- Jules Kounde
- Desire Doue
- Ousmane Dembele
Who will take Morocco’s penalties?
Should he be available and finish the game, Ismael Saibari should be a certainty to take a penalty. He scored the winner against the Netherlands in the shootout, which was actually his first competitive experience of one. In fact, he has only taken two penalties in his career. The first came in the Eredivisie and Saibari did score, before the shootout against the Netherlands. While there’s not much to go on, Saibari’s general form will see him step up.
Soufiane Rahimi scored Morocco’s first against the Netherlands in the shootout, and he has a decent record. He has scored in both of his shootouts for Morocco, as well as netting six of seven in his recorded club career. Neil El Aynaoui has taken the first penalty in each of Morocco’s past two shootouts, scoring one and missing one. He’ll likely step up first once more.
Predicted Morocco penalty order
- Neil El Aynaoui
- Soufiane Rahimi
- Brahim Diaz
- Achraf Hakimi
- Ismael Saibari
Who will win if France vs Morocco goes to penalties?
Morocco will be confident in Yassine Bounou should the game go to penalties. That should override any nerves surrounding their misses last time out. Their own record will also be a boost, still being perfect at World Cup penalty shootouts.
That same feeling could count against France. They know they lost their last World Cup shootout, when it mattered most against Argentina. Since then, though, France have won two penalty shootouts in at Euro 2024 and the Uefa Nations League.
It will be a nailbiting shootout, but Morocco may just have the edge if it goes all the way.
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