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Squawka / News / World Cup / Portugal vs Spain: predictions, best bets, odds and stats

Portugal vs Spain: predictions, best bets, odds and stats

06 Jul · 20:00 AT&T Stadium · FIFA World Cup

No previous meetings between these teams.

Goals
  • 1
    Spain
    Mikel Oyarzabal
    4
  • 2
    Portugal
    Cristiano Ronaldo
    3
  • 3
    Portugal
    Rafael Leão
    1
  • 4
    Spain
    Álex Baena
    1
  • 5
    Spain
    Pedro Porro
    1
Shots
  • 1
    Spain
    Mikel Oyarzabal
    17
  • 2
    Portugal
    Cristiano Ronaldo
    15
  • 3
    Spain
    Lamine Yamal
    14
  • 4
    Spain
    Ferran Torres
    9
  • 5
    Portugal
    Bruno Fernandes
    8
Tackles Won
  • 1
    Spain
    Rodri
    10
  • 2
    Portugal
    Bruno Fernandes
    5
  • 3
    Spain
    Pedri
    5
  • 4
    Portugal
    João Neves
    5
  • 5
    Spain
    Marcos Llorente
    5
Assists
  • 1
    Spain
    Marc Cucurella
    2
  • 2
    Portugal
    Rafael Leão
    1
  • 3
    Portugal
    João Cancelo
    1
  • 4
    Portugal
    Bruno Fernandes
    1
  • 5
    Spain
    Dani Olmo
    1
Chances Created
  • 1
    Portugal
    Nuno Mendes
    10
  • 2
    Spain
    Álex Baena
    8
  • 3
    Spain
    Pedro Porro
    8
  • 4
    Spain
    Pedri
    7
  • 5
    Spain
    Rodri
    6
Passes Completed
  • 1
    Spain
    Rodri
    413
  • 2
    Spain
    Pau Cubarsí
    361
  • 3
    Spain
    Aymeric Laporte
    360
  • 4
    Portugal
    Vitinha
    340
  • 5
    Portugal
    Renato Veiga
    268
Take Ons Completed
  • 1
    Spain
    Lamine Yamal
    14
  • 2
    Portugal
    Rafael Leão
    7
  • 3
    Portugal
    Nuno Mendes
    7
  • 4
    Portugal
    João Cancelo
    5
  • 5
    Spain
    Pedri
    4
Interceptions
  • 1
    Spain
    Aymeric Laporte
    9
  • 2
    Spain
    Pedri
    7
  • 3
    Portugal
    Renato Veiga
    7
  • 4
    Portugal
    Rúben Dias
    5
  • 5
    Portugal
    João Cancelo
    4
Portugal Portugal
  • Matheus Nunes Midfielder · Illness · 1 | Questionable (50%)
Spain Spain

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01
Costa
25
Mendes
13
Veiga
03
Dias
20
Cancelo
23
Vitinha
15
Neves
11
Félix
08
Fernandes
18
Neto
07
Ronaldo
21
Oyarzabal
15
Baena
10
Olmo
19
Yamal
20
Pedri
16
Rodri
24
Cucurella
14
Laporte
22
Cubarsí
12
Porro
23
Simón

League Standings table is not available yet.

Portugal and Spain collide in the most anticipated fixture of the Round of 16 at the 2026 World Cup on Monday. Kick-off is scheduled for 8pm (UK time) on Monday 6th July at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Dallas.

The Iberian neighbours need no further motivation for this fixture – but a World Cup quarter-final berth raises the stakes to an entirely different level. Spain swept through the knockout rounds with a commanding 3-0 win over Austria, remaining the only team yet to concede a goal at this tournament. Portugal survived a dramatic 2-1 comeback against Croatia, with Cristiano Ronaldo equalising from the penalty spot and Goncalo Ramos heading in a stoppage-time winner. This is a rematch of last year’s Nations League final – this time, the reward is a place in the last eight.

Bet365 UK Portugal VS Spain
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Portugal vs Spain predictions & betting tips

Our PredictionOdds & BookmakerConfidenceWhy We’re Backing It
Lamine Yamal to be fouled 3 or more times5/2 @ bet365
(28.6%)
⭐⭐⭐⭐Yamal has been the most fouled attacking player at this tournament. Portugal know exactly how dangerous he becomes in space – Nuno Mendes and João Cancelo will be aggressive from the first whistle in an attempt to stop him before he gets into his stride. Yamal draws contact naturally through his directness, low centre of gravity and willingness to run at defenders repeatedly. In a high-intensity knockout tie where Portugal have everything to lose if Yamal runs free, 3+ fouls looks great value at 5/2
Both teams to score in each half13/1 @ Paddy Power
(7.1%)
⭐⭐This is the most open fixture of the entire Round of 16. Spain have not conceded all tournament – but Portugal carry Ronaldo’s threat, Bruno Fernandes’ creativity and the pace of Leão and Neto. Spain’s attack through Yamal and Oyarzabal has looked increasingly dangerous with each game. Both nations push aggressively from the first whistle and neither carries the compact defensive mentality of a side happy to frustrate. Both teams scoring in both halves reflects the offensive quality on the pitch and the all-or-nothing nature of knockout football between two attacking sides.

Odds correct at time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.

How both teams head into Portugal vs Spain

Portugal

Portugal arrive in Dallas having navigated the most dramatic game of the tournament so far. Ronaldo’s penalty cancelled out Ivan Perisic’s opener against Croatia before Ramos’ injury-time header sent the Selecao through in extraordinary fashion. A Croatia goal was ruled out in the dying seconds by VAR – a decision that spared Portugal the anguish of extra time and preserved Martinez’s squad for Monday’s Iberian showdown.

Ronaldo became the first player in history to score in six different World Cups when he found the net in the group stages. That historic milestone underlines the significance of his continued involvement. He is 41 years old and plays with the desperation of a man who knows this is his last opportunity to win the only major trophy to have eluded him.

Portugal carry genuine quality beyond their captain. Fernandes controls the tempo, Joao Neves provides defensive energy and Vitinha adds technical quality in tight spaces. Rafael Leao and Pedro Neto offer pace from wide areas to stretch Spain’s high defensive line. Spain have not conceded all tournament – but they have not yet faced an attack of this individual quality, and Portugal know exactly where Spain’s vulnerabilities lie from the Nations League final.

Spain

La Roja have been the most complete side at this tournament. Four games, eight goals scored, zero conceded – a record of utter dominance that reflects the control De la Fuente’s side have imposed throughout the competition. The 3-0 win over Austria was as comfortable as the scoreline suggests, with Oyarzabal’s double bookending a performance of real authority.

Yamal is fully fit after missing training sessions earlier in the tournament with a hamstring concern – his involvement was the most discussed team news story of the Round of 32. The 18-year-old has already scored at this World Cup and continues to build the case that he is the tournament’s outstanding individual talent. His duel with Nuno Mendes on Spain’s right side could define the entire tie.

Rodri and Pedri anchor one of the tournament’s most technically accomplished midfields, controlling possession and protecting a backline that has yet to be breached. Alex Baena offers additional pace and directness from the left, while Dani Olmo provides intelligent movement in the half-spaces. Spain’s primary concern is not their own quality – it is whether they can contain Ronaldo when he arrives in the penalty area with a point to prove.

Portugal team news

Ruben Dias returned to full fitness after managing minor injury concerns during the group stage and starts alongside Renato Veiga at centre-back. Diogo Costa continues in goal. Joao Cancelo and Nuno Mendes provide width at full-back, with Mendes’ battle against Yamal the most significant individual duel of Monday’s fixture.

Vitinha and Joao Neves anchor the midfield with Fernandes operating ahead of them. Ronaldo leads the line and starts – that is beyond question after his heroic intervention against Croatia. Neto and Felix operate in wide attacking positions, though Leao pushes hard for a starting berth after an impressive group-stage cameo.

Spain team news

Lamine Yamal is confirmed fit after his hamstring scare during the Austria game. De la Fuente names his strongest available XI with no injury concerns or suspensions affecting his squad ahead of Monday. Unai Simon continues in goal behind a back four of Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsi, Aymeric Laporte and Marc Cucurella.

Rodri and Pedri continue as Spain’s midfield foundation, with Fabian Ruiz providing further quality in the engine room. Yamal starts on the right and Baena on the left, with Dani Olmo operating centrally behind Oyarzabal. The combination of Rodri’s defensive authority and Yamal’s attacking brilliance gives Spain a balance no other team in the tournament possesses.

Head-to-Head

Portugal and Spain have shared one of international football’s most compelling rivalries across decades of Iberian competition. Spain hold the historical advantage in competitive encounters, but the most recent chapter – last year’s Nations League final – went to Portugal. That result adds a layer of psychological complexity to Monday’s fixture that tactical preparation alone cannot neutralise. Dallas will host the rivalry’s most consequential chapter yet – with a World Cup quarter-final the prize.

Which side will continue their World Cup dream?

This fixture carries the weight of two nations’ entire tournament ambitions. Portugal need Ronaldo to deliver in his final World Cup and believe they can beat Spain after doing so in the Nations League final. Spain need Yamal to unlock a Portugal defence that bent but did not break against Croatia. The winner faces either the USA or Belgium in the quarter-finals.

We’re backing Lamine Yamal to draw repeated fouls against a Portugal side that cannot afford to give him space. 5/2 at bet365 for Yamal to be fouled 3 or more times reflects Portugal’s aggressive defensive approach and his natural ability to attract contact.

For a bolder play, both teams to score in each half at 13/1 with Paddy Power reflects the extraordinary attacking talent on the pitch and the all-or-nothing nature of an Iberian knockout tie that neither side will approach with caution.

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