The 2026 World Cup has served up some of the most dramatic and unpredictable football the tournament has ever seen – and nowhere has that unpredictability been felt more sharply than in the betting markets.
There are plenty of different staking strategies that can be implemented over the course of a tournament. We’ve delved into some of the lesser-used ones to see how much you would’ve won, or lost, if you’d followed them across the competition. First up, the double chance market.
The double chance market is one of the most popular in football betting, offering punters the safety net of covering two of the three possible outcomes in a single selection. Back the outsider on the double chance and you are essentially siding with the underdog to either win or draw.
We backed the outsider double chance at every single match at the 2026 World Cup, tracking what would happened with our £1 stake from the opening match between Mexico and South Africa all the way through to the current phase.
The results are surprising and revealing. Here is exactly what happened.
Group stages
Group A
| Match | Double Chance | Win or Loss | Odds | Return | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico vs South Africa | Draw or South Africa | Loss | 47/25 | £0 | -£1 |
| South Korea vs Czech Republic | Draw or Czech Republic | Loss | 53/100 | £0 | -£1 |
| Czech Republic vs South Africa | Draw or South Africa | Won | 19/20 | £1.95 | £0.95 |
| Mexico vs South Korea | Draw or South Korea | Loss | 4/5 | £0 | -£1 |
| South Africa vs South Korea | South Africa or draw | Won | 123/100 | £2.23 | £1.23 |
| Czech Republic vs Mexico | Czech Republic or draw | Loss | 11/10 | £0 | -£1 |
| Total | £4.18 | -£1.82 |
Group A wouldn’t have been very profitable at all. Mexico dominating their games and only two ‘upsets’ means a small loss on the double chance market here.
Group B
| Match | Double Chance | Win or Loss | Odds | Return | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada vs Bosnia-Herzegovina | Draw or Bosnia-Herzegovina | Win | 1/1 | £2 | £1 |
| Qatar vs Switzerland | Qatar or draw | Win | 4/1 | £5 | £4 |
| Switzerland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina | Draw or Bosnia-Herzegovina | Loss | 3/2 | £0 | -£1 |
| Canada vs Qatar | Draw or Qatar | Loss | 3/1 | £0 | -£1 |
| Switzerland vs Canada | Draw or Canada | Loss | 11/20 | £0 | -£1 |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Qatar | Draw or Qatar | Loss | 39/20 | £0 | -£1 |
| Total | £7 | £1 |
It all started very promisingly, with our first big winner of the competition. The final four games in Group B all went with the favourite, though. It’s not a big profit but it’s still a profit!
Group C
| Match | Double Chance | Win or Loss | Odds | Return | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil vs Morocco | Draw or Morocco | Win | 6/5 | £2.20 | £1.20 |
| Haiti vs Scotland | Haiti or draw | Loss | 31/20 | £0 | -£1 |
| Scotland vs Morocco | Scotland or draw | Loss | 6/5 | £0 | -£1 |
| Brazil vs Haiti | Draw or Haiti | Loss | 13/2 | £0 | -£1 |
| Morocco vs Haiti | Draw or Haiti | Loss | 3/1 | £0 | -£1 |
| Scotland vs Brazil | Scotland or draw | Loss | 53/20 | £0 | -£1 |
| Total | £2.20 | –£3.80 |
Again, there was much promise here before it all fell apart. The favourites won in five of the six games, leaving a significant loss.
Group D
| Match | Double Chance | Win or Loss | Odds | Return | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States vs Paraguay | Draw or Paraguay | Loss | 4/5 | £0 | -£1 |
| Australia vs Turkey | Australia or draw | Win | 5/4 | £2.25 | £1.25 |
| United States vs Australia | Draw or Australia | Loss | 3/2 | £0 | -£1 |
| Turkey vs Paraguay | Draw or Paraguay | Win | 4/5 | £1.80 | £0.80 |
| Turkey vs United States | Turkey or draw | Win | 4/5 | £1.80 | £0.80 |
| Paraguay vs Australia | Draw or Australia | Win | 53/100 | £1.53 | £0.53 |
| Total | £7.38 | £1.38 |
Group D proved to be a little bit more fruitful, with four of the six outsider shots coming in. Such was the close nature of the group, though, that the winners were all fairly short prices and profits were minimised.
Group E
| Match | Double Chance | Win or Loss | Odds | Return | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany vs Curacao | Draw or Curacao | Loss | 16/1 | £0 | -£1 |
| Ivory Coast vs Ecuador | Ivory Coast or draw | Win | 11/20 | £1.55 | £0.55 |
| Germany vs Ivory Coast | Draw or Ivory Coast | Loss | 9/5 | £0 | -£1 |
| Ecuador vs Curacao | Draw or Curacao | Win | 19/4 | £5.75 | £4.75 |
| Ecuador vs Germany | Ecuador or draw | Win | 23/20 | £2.15 | £1.15 |
| Curacao vs Ivory Coast | Curacao or draw | Loss | 4/1 | £0 | -£1 |
| Total | £9.45 | £3.45 |
Finally our first real profit from a group. The draw that Curacao grabbed against Ecuador is doing a lot of heavy lifting but Ecuador’s win over Germany helps. It even leaves us with a little bit of overall profit for the first time.
Group F
| Match | Double Chance | Win or Loss | Odds | Return | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands vs Japan | Draw or Japan | Win | 4/5 | £1.80 | £0.80 |
| Sweden vs Tunisia | Draw or Tunisia | Loss | 1/1 | £0 | -£1 |
| Netherland vs Sweden | Draw or Sweden | Loss | 6/5 | £0 | -£1 |
| Tunisia vs Japan | Tunisia or draw | Loss | 19/10 | £0 | -£1 |
| Tunisia vs Netherlands | Tunisia or draw | Loss | 11/2 | £0 | -£1 |
| Japan vs Sweden | Draw or Sweden | Win | 63/100 | £1.63 | £0.63 |
| Total | £3.43 | -£2.57 |
And there goes our profit! Tunisia’s poor performance meant that surprises were in short supply. The fairly equal footing between Netherlands, Sweden and Japan didn’t produce enough value and leaves us with a heavy loss.
Group G
| Match | Double Chance | Win or Loss | Odds | Return | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium vs Egypt | Draw or Egypt | Win | 8/5 | £2.60 | £1.60 |
| Iran vs New Zealand | Draw or New Zealand | Win | 1/1 | £2 | £1 |
| Belgium vs Iran | Draw or Iran | Win | 2/1 | £3 | £2 |
| New Zealand vs Egypt | New Zealand or draw | Loss | 133/100 | £0 | -£1 |
| Egypt vs Iran | Draw or Iran | Win | 53/100 | £1.53 | £0.53 |
| New Zealand vs Belgium | New Zealand or draw | Loss | 4/1 | £0 | -£1 |
| Total | £9.13 | £3.13 |
This is much healthier. Belgium’s slow start to the competition helped us out massively but Iran are the real heroes of Group G. And, just like that, we’re back in overall profit – what a rollercoaster!
Group H
| Match | Double Chance | Win or Loss | Odds | Return | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain vs Cape Verde | Draw or Cape Verde | Win | 8/1 | £9 | £8 |
| Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay | Saudi Arabia or draw | Win | 17/10 | £2.70 | £1.70 |
| Spain vs Saudi Arabia | Draw or Saudi Arabia | Loss | 13/2 | £0 | -£1 |
| Uruguay vs Cape Verde | Draw or Cape Verde | Win | 21/10 | £3.10 | £2.10 |
| Uruguay vs Spain | Uruguay or draw | Loss | 5/4 | £0 | -£1 |
| Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia | Cape Verde or draw | Win | 1/2 | £1.50 | £0.50 |
| Total | £16.30 | £10.30 |
It’s a great feeling to know you’ll end in profit after the first two games of the group but that is the gift that Cape Verde gave us. Onwards and upwards from here, right?
Group I
| Match | Double Chance | Win or Loss | Odds | Return | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France vs Senegal | Draw or Senegal | Loss | 17/10 | £0 | -£1 |
| Iraq vs Norway | Iraq or draw | Loss | 7/2 | £0 | -£1 |
| France vs Iraq | Draw or Iraq | Loss | 8/1 | £0 | -£1 |
| Norway vs Senegal | Draw or Senegal | Loss | 57/100 | £0 | -£1 |
| Senegal vs Iraq | Draw or Iraq | Loss | 18/5 | £0 | -£1 |
| Norway vs France | Norway or draw | Loss | 23/10 | £0 | -£1 |
| Total | £0 | -£6 |
Ah, well…maybe not onwards and upwards. When you’re staking method is favouring the outsiders you definitely don’t want the favourites winning every match. That’s exactly what happened in Group I, though, handing us our biggest possible loss. Still, things will turn around again, eh?
Group J
| Match | Double Chance | Win or Loss | Odds | Return | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina vs Algeria | Draw or Algeria | Loss | 8/5 | £0 | -£1 |
| Austria vs Jordan | Draw or Jordan | Loss | 21/10 | £0 | -£1 |
| Argentina vs Austria | Draw or Austria | Loss | 9/5 | £0 | -£1 |
| Jordan vs Algeria | Jordan or draw | Loss | 7/4 | £0 | -£1 |
| Jordan vs Argentina | Jordan or draw | Loss | 11/2 | £0 | -£1 |
| Algeria vs Austria | Algeria or draw | Win | 33/100 | £1.33 | £0.33 |
| Total | £1.33 | -£4.67 |
No, apparently they won’t. Five losses from a possible six and the only winner being hugely odds on. That’s not ideal. We’re going to need a big performance in the next group.
Group K
| Match | Double Chance | Win or Loss | Odds | Return | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal vs DR Congo | Draw or DR Congo | Win | 14/5 | £3.80 | £2.80 |
| Uzbekistan vs Colombia | Uzbekistan or draw | Loss | 13/5 | £0 | -£1 |
| Portugal vs Uzbekistan | Draw or Uzbekistan | Loss | 11/2 | £0 | -£1 |
| Colombia vs DR Congo | Draw or DR Congo | Loss | 3/2 | £0 | -£1 |
| DR Congo vs Uzbekistan | Draw or Uzbekistan | Loss | 5/4 | £0 | -£1 |
| Colombia vs Portugal | Colombia or draw | Win | 1/1 | £2 | £1 |
| Total | £5.80 | –£0.20 |
This started so promisingly but the favourites won out eventually. Colombia saved us from a bigger loss and, all things considered, a 20p loss could’ve been much worse.
Group L
| Match | Double Chance | Win or Loss | Odds | Return | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England vs Croatia | Draw or Croatia | Loss | 5/4 | £0 | -£1 |
| Ghana vs Panama | Draw or Panama | Loss | 31/50 | £0 | -£1 |
| England vs Ghana | Draw or Ghana | Win | 9/2 | £5.50 | £4.50 |
| Panama vs Croatia | Panama or draw | Loss | 2/1 | £0 | -£1 |
| Panama vs England | Panama or draw | Loss | 5/1 | £0 | -£1 |
| Croatia vs Ghana | Draw or Ghana | Loss | 21/20 | £0 | -£1 |
| Total | £5.50 | -£0.50 |
Another big winner that saves us from disaster. A blip in England’s run nets us what looks to be a nice wedge but the favourites winning the rest of the games leaves us nursing a small loss in Group L.
Round of 32
| Match | Double Chance | Win or Loss | Odds | Return | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa vs Canada | South Africa or draw | Loss | 21/20 | £0 | -£1 |
| Brazil vs Japan | Draw or Japan | Loss | 11/10 | £0 | -£1 |
| Germany vs Paraguay | Draw or Paraguay | Win | 5/2 | £3.50 | £2.50 |
| Netherlands vs Morocco | Draw or Morocco | Win | 31/50 | £1.62 | £0.62 |
| Ivory Coast vs Norway | Ivory Coast or draw | Loss | 73/100 | £0 | -£1 |
| France vs Sweden | Draw or Sweden | Loss | 14/5 | £0 | -£1 |
| Mexico vs Ecuador | Draw or Ecuador | Loss | 67/100 | £0 | -£1 |
| England vs DR Congo | Draw or DR Congo | Loss | 11/4 | £0 | -£1 |
| Belgium vs Senegal | Draw or Senegal | Win | 91/100 | £1.91 | £0.91 |
| United States vs Bosnia-Herzegovina | Draw or Bosnia-Herzegovina | Loss | 9/4 | £0 | -£1 |
| Spain vs Austria | Draw or Austri | Loss | 5/2 | £0 | -£1 |
| Portugal vs Croatia | Draw or Croatia | Loss | 5/4 | £0 | -£1 |
| Switzerland vs Algeria | Draw or Algeria | Loss | 17/20 | £0 | -£1 |
| Australia vs Egypt | Australia or Draw | Win | 31/50 | £1.62 | £0.62 |
| Argentina vs Cape Verde | Draw or Cape Verde | Win | 5/1 | £6 | £5 |
| Colombia vs Ghana | Draw vs Ghana | Loss | 2/1 | £0 | -£1 |
| Total | £14.65 | -£1.35 |
The Round of 32 produces a small loss, too. Cape Verde securing a draw against Argentina helped that total from being a lot worse. Can the Round of 16 prove to be any more profitable?
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