The final round of games of the 2026 World Cup group stage take place between Wednesday and Sunday. We’ve taken a look at the Group F permutations.
We’ve broken down each group, with this article focusing on Group F. Netherlands, Japan and Sweden are all vying to qualify from Group F. Tunisia have already been eliminated from contention.
Below are all the permutations for those groups as well as who each team could face in the next round. It’s a little complicated but we’ve tried to make it as easy we can!
How could Group F finish?
| Result A | Result B | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Japan win | Netherlands win | 1. Netherlands (7 points) 2. Japan (7 points) 3. Sweden (3 points) 4. Tunisia (0 points) |
| Japan win | Netherlands/Tunisia draw | 1. Japan (7 points) 2. Netherlands (5 points) 3. Sweden (3 points) 4. Tunisia (1 point) |
| Japan win | Tunisia win | 1. Japan (7 points) 2. Netherlands (4 points) 3. Sweden (3 points) 4. Tunisia (3 points) |
| Japan/Sweden draw | Netherlands win | 1. Netherlands (7 points) 2. Japan (5 points) 3. Sweden (4 points) 4. Tunisia (0 points) |
| Japan/Sweden draw | Netherlands/Tunisia draw | 1. Netherlands (5 points) 2. Japan (5 points) 3. Sweden (4 points) 4. Tunisia (1 point) |
| Japan/Sweden draw | Tunisia win | 1. Japan (5 points) 2. Netherlands (4 points) 3. Sweden (4 points) 4. Tunisia (3 points) |
| Sweden win | Netherlands win | 1. Netherlands (7 points) 2. Sweden (6 points) 3. Japan (4 points) 4. Tunisia (0 points) |
| Sweden win | Netherlands/Tunisia draw | 1. Sweden (6 points) 2. Netherlands (5 points) 3. Japan (4 points) 4. Tunisia (1 point) |
| Sweden win | Tunisia win | 1. Sweden (6 points) 2. Netherlands (4 points) 3. Japan (4 points) 4. Tunisia (3 points) |
Three nations could finish in first position, although Netherlands are the most likely side to win Group F. The Dutch side are guaranteed to qualify to the knockout stages unless one very specific situation occurs. If Sweden beat Japan by a single goal and Tunisia beat Netherlands by two or more goals, Netherlands will finish third. Any other situation and the Dutch players will be playing Round of 32 football.
Netherlands finish top in four of the nine possibilities, with Japan coming out on top in three. Sweden still have a chance of winning the group but have to beat Japan and hope Netherlands drop points against Tunisia.
The Sweden vs Japan game is a straight shootout. The winner will qualify for the Round of 32, the loser will have to wait to see if they can get through as one of the best third placed finishers. A draw only benefits Japan.
Tunisia have nothing to play for but pride on Matchday Three. They can’t qualify from Group F and they can’t even move themselves off the foot of the table.
Who could the teams from Group F face in the next round?
The winner of Group F will take on the side that finishes second in Group C. That is shaping up to be Morocco.
Whoever finishes second will face the winner of Group C, with that looking likely to be Brazil at this point.
The current projections show that the side that finishes third in Group F will be playing knockout football. That sets up a tie with the nation that wins Group I, which is most likely to be France.
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