Aston Villa are clinging to fourth place, but with only five points separating them from sixth, nothing’s settled. Unai Emery’s men travel to the City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest in the Premier League on Sunday afternoon, with the hosts looking to make a step closer to safety. Kick off is at 2:00pm and you can find our match preview and best bets below.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why I’m Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to Win | 13/8 @ Bet365 (38.1%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Villa average 1.35 goals per game, Forest just 1.00. Forest concede 1.39 per match and have lost 15 of 31. Villa’s home record against Forest is strong, and the 13/8 implies 38% — I rate it nearer 45%. |
| Morgan Gibbs-White Anytime Assist | 9/2 @ Bet365 (18.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | He’s Forest’s creative hub with 2 assists from 31 games, which is low, but he’s also created more big chances than anyone in their squad. At 9/2, the implied probability is 18% — I make it closer to 23% given Villa’s tendency to concede from open play. |
Stakemate Offer: Bet £10, get £20 in free bets
How to claim:
- Go to Stakemate using this link.
- Download the app and create your account
- Place your first bet of £10 or more (minimum odds of 2/1)
- Once settled, receive 4 x £5 free bets - minimum 3 selections and 2/1 odds on each bet.
#AD 18+ New Customers Only. Place any £10 bet to qualify, min 2.0 (1/1) odds. Qualifying bet must settle, excluding cash outs. Bonus credited with 24hrs of settlement. 4 x £5 free bets. Free bets min 3 selections and 3.0 odds. Returns exclude free bet stake. Expiry applies. Full T&Cs apply.
Odds correct at the time of writing.
How both teams go into Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest come into this one unbeaten in four matches in all competitions, including a big 3 0 win away at Tottenham before the break. Vitor Pereira has hinted that Premier League survival and European qualification are now the main focus.
Home form remains a real concern though, with just three wins from 15 games at the City Ground and no league victory there since December. Goals have also been a problem, but recent draws suggest they are at least harder to beat in Nottingham, even if wins continue to slip away.
Aston Villa arrive after back to back Premier League away defeats to Wolves and Manchester United, but their European form has been strong with wins over Lille and Bologna, including a 3 1 success in midweek. Unai Emery’s focus on continental success remains clear, especially with Villa sitting six points clear of sixth place.
They will need to improve their record at the City Ground, where they are winless in three visits since Forest returned to the top flight. Recent meetings between the sides have also been open, with neither team keeping a clean sheet in the last four clashes.
Nottingham Forest team news
Nottingham Forest welcome back Elliot Anderson after suspension, giving them a boost in midfield. Chris Wood has also returned from injury but Igor Jesus is expected to keep his place as the main striker. Vitor Pereira is likely to stick with the same side that beat Spurs, having rotated in Europe. Stefan Ortega, despite a strong showing in midweek, is expected to drop out with Matz Sels returning in goal.
Aston Villa team news
Unai Emery could rotate his midfield, with Ross Barkley in line to step in if Youri Tielemans is rested after his recent return. Douglas Luiz is another option to come into the side depending on how Emery reshapes the team.
There are further squad options across defence and midfield with Ian Maatsen, Tyrone Mings, Lamare Bogarde and Leon Bailey all in contention if changes are made. Ollie Watkins is expected to keep his place up front after his double against Bologna, while Boubacar Kamara and Jadon Sancho remain out injured.
Season Form & Standings
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 4th | 31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 54 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16th | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 32 |
Head-to-Head
Recent Meetings
Villa have dominated this fixture, winning 7 of the last 11. The last meeting finished Villa 3-1 Forest back in January. Forest’s only win in the last five came at home in December 2024. Goals are never in short supply when these two meet.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 03/01/26 | Aston Villa 3-1 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 05/04/25 | Aston Villa 2-1 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 14/12/24 | Nottingham Forest 2-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 24/02/24 | Aston Villa 4-2 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 05/11/23 | Nottingham Forest 2-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 08/04/23 | Aston Villa 2-0 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
Can Villa’s Attack Expose Forest’s Defensive Woes? Final Thoughts
Villa have the edge on paper and in the numbers. Forest’s defence is a mess — conceding 43 from just 27.39 xA is a red flag, and Villa’s finishing, while not elite, is good enough to take advantage. The price on Villa is a touch generous, and I’m happy to back them at 13/8 with Bet365. If you want a bigger price, Gibbs-White to assist at 9/2 is a decent each-way angle. Just don’t expect a classic — this could be a grind, but Villa should find a way.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Read more:
- Latest football news
- Football betting tips
- Best betting sites
- Best free bet offers
- Football accumulator tips
