Third-placed Millwall welcome Derby County to The Den in what promises to be a pivotal Championship clash.
With Millwall boasting one of the league’s meanest defences and Derby coming off a morale-boosting win, this fixture could shape the playoff race. Kick-off is set for Tuesday, 19:45, and all eyes will be on whether Millwall’s defensive edge can blunt Derby’s high-risk, high-reward attack.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on defensive records, shot creation, and recent form, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in Millwall to win due to their superior clean sheet tally and Derby’s tendency to concede on the road.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall to Win | 8/11 @ Bet365 (57.9%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | We’re backing Millwall due to a league-high 14 clean sheets and a strong home record in recent head-to-heads. Derby have shipped 47 goals and have only 8 clean sheets, which could cost them against Millwall’s direct attacking style. |
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | 10/11 @ SkyBet (52.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | There could be value here as Derby’s matches average nearly 2.8 goals, and both sides have created over 50 clear-cut chances this season. BTTS has landed in 3 of the last 5 meetings. |
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Season Form & Standings
Millwall remain in the automatic promotion hunt, sitting 3rd with a robust defensive record and a +9 goal difference. Derby, despite scoring more, are 7th and have struggled for consistency—moving up from 11th after their last win.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 3 | 36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 50 | 41 | +9 | 65 |
| Derby County | 7 | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 54 | 47 | +7 | 54 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Joshua Coburn (Millwall): Averaging high touches inside the penalty area, his movement is key to Millwall’s direct attacks.
- Mihailo Ivanović (Millwall): Brings aerial prowess—Millwall lead the league in successful headers (963).
- Ben Brereton-Diaz (Derby County): Offers pace and power in transition; Derby’s attack is more effective than their expected goals suggests.
- Lewis Travis (Derby County): Helps Derby win second balls and brings physicality, but must convert more chances given Derby’s high underperformance on expected assists.
Head-to-Head: Last 5 meetings
Millwall have the upper hand, unbeaten in the last five against Derby County, with two wins in that period.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 10/12/25 | Derby County 1-1 Millwall | Championship |
| 22/02/25 | Derby County 0-1 Millwall | Championship |
| 19/10/24 | Millwall 1-1 Derby County | Championship |
| 23/02/22 | Derby County 1-2 Millwall | Championship |
| 06/11/21 | Millwall 1-1 Derby County | Championship |
Will Millwall’s defence prove decisive?
With Millwall’s defensive organisation and Derby’s tendency to create but also concede, the contest feels set up for the home side to edge it—especially with their superior clean sheet record and recent head-to-head dominance. We’re backing Millwall to win at 8/11 with Bet365 (57.9% implied probability) as the standout value, but Derby’s directness could still see both sides on the scoresheet.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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