Manchester City take on Newcastle in the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final on Wednesday evening, with kick-off set for 8:00pm. Pep Guardiola’s side hold a two-goal advantage after their 2-0 win at St James’ Park in January, and below you can find our match preview and best bets.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City to Win & BTTS | 23/10 @ AK Bets (30.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Newcastle are likely to approach the match with an attacking mindset as they attempt to overturn the deficit against Manchester City. The Magpies have players capable of causing problems for City’s defence, particularly when exploiting space behind a high line. However, City’s attacking quality in the final third may allow them to maintain control of the tie and secure progression on aggregate. The conditions point toward a relatively open contest, with goals possible for both sides. |
| Bernardo Silva anytime assist | 23/4 @ BetMGM (14.8%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Bernardo Silva looks a little overpriced in the anytime assist market, with 23/4 on show. Those odds imply a 14.8% chance of success on Wednesday, which looks a little big considering this could be a high-scoring contest. Bernardo has recorded an assist in three of his nine league starts at the Etihad this season, giving plenty of appeal to the price on show with BetMGM. |
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How both teams go into Man City vs Newcastle
Manchester City are well placed to reach another domestic cup final after taking a 2-0 advantage from the first leg against Newcastle at St James’ Park. The result continued a strong historical trend for City in this competition, where they have progressed from almost every semi-final after winning the opening leg, and they are targeting a first EFL Cup title since the 2020–21 season.
Recent form has been less consistent, with City dropping points in the league, most notably in a 2-2 draw with Tottenham on Sunday. Despite those concerns, a return to the Etihad should offer confidence, given their strong home record this season and a long run of dominant results against Newcastle on home soil.
Newcastle’s defence of the EFL Cup began strongly with wins over Bradford, Tottenham and Fulham, but their long unbeaten run in the competition ended with a home defeat to Manchester City in the first leg of the semi-final. While the late second goal was a setback, Eddie Howe has maintained that the tie remains alive as Newcastle look to achieve a rare comeback from a two-goal deficit.
The task is made more difficult by Newcastle’s recent away record and their long run of defeats at the Etihad, where victories have been scarce. However, there are small positives to draw on, including previous EFL Cup successes against City and a league win earlier this season. Those results offer some encouragement as Newcastle attempt to produce a notable turnaround.
Man City team news
Ruben Dias is now back in training, but John Stones, Josko Gvardiol, Mateo Kovacic, Savinho and Jeremy Doku all remain sidelined.
Newcastle team news
Bruno Guimaraes is expected to return to the starting line-up. Joelinton, Tino Livramento, Fabian Schar and Emil Krafth all remain on the treatment table.
Head-to-Head
Manchester City have dominated this fixture, winning 15 of the last 21 meetings. In the most recent 6, City have claimed 4 victories, Newcastle just 1, with 1 draw. City’s attacking output in this period is impressive (50 goals in 21 games), while Newcastle have failed to win away at the Etihad in this span.
Last 6 Meetings
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 13/01/26 | Newcastle 0-2 Man City | League Cup |
| 22/11/25 | Newcastle 2-1 Man City | Premier League |
| 15/02/25 | Man City 4-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| 28/09/24 | Newcastle 1-1 Man City | Premier League |
| 16/03/24 | Man City 2-0 Newcastle | FA Cup |
| …more previous matches | – | – |
Final Thoughts
With Newcastle having to attack, they could be left vulnerable, and City could pick them off. A high-scoring contest looks likely and backing the hosts to win and both teams to score looks the best bet at 23/10.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
