Mohamed Salah’s absence from Liverpool’s starting XI coincides with a three-match unbeaten run for the Premier League champions. The Reds, despite conceding three in a draw with Leeds United, have been better defensively.
At a glance, Arne Slot’s decision to bench the four-time Golden Boot winner has been justified, right? There’s a bit more to it than that though.
Liverpool have won one and drawn two of their last three. During this run, the defending Premier League champions have come up against West Ham United, Sunderland and Leeds United, two of those teams are in the bottom five.
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On paper, a team with Liverpool’s quality should be taking nine points from this run. Had they done so, they’d be sitting in fourth position in the Premier League right now. Instead, they’re in 9th. If Manchester United avoid defeat against bottom of the table Wolves on Monday evening, the Reds will drop to 10th. Slot’s side are 10 points off leaders Arsenal and 10 points ahead of the relegation zone right now.
Across the three games Salah was dropped for, Liverpool’s opponents amassed a Non-Penalty Expected Goals total of just 1.8. In the No11’s last start for the Reds in the Premier League, Nottingham Forest racked up an xG of 1.4.
There’s no disputing that Slot’s decision to bench the club’s highest paid player has resulted in more assured defensive showings.
But this wasn’t as simple as saying Salah was dropped and Liverpool improved out of possession.
The Reds dropped their main man and changed their entire shape, system and mentality. Salah, an inside forward, was replaced by Dominik Szoboszlai and the former RB Leipzig man was deployed more as a right-sided midfielder. Behind him in two of those games was a centre-back being used as a right-back in Joe Gomez.
The new-found defensive resilience isn’t a result of Salah being dropped. It’s a result of using a midfielder in attack and a centre-back at full-back.
Salah was ultimately sacrificed because Slot can’t figure out a way to improve Liverpool defensively without adding more midfielders into the team. The two man midfield isn’t working for the Reds. Keeping a full-back in a more reserved position to make a back three isn’t working. Using Szoboszlai as an attacking midfielder worked to an extent but once the press was bypassed, the Reds were, once again, exposed.
Slot’s solution to this problem, at least in the short-term, was to add a fourth midfielder into the mix and make Liverpool more compact as a unit.
Cody Gakpo does too much defensively to be dropped. So it had to be Salah.
But this new approach isn’t a long-term solution. The Reds have fixed things defensively by essentially giving up on their attack.
Liverpool have six goals in their last three outings and an Expected Goals total of 4.6. Again, they’ve played two of the bottom five and Sunderland at Anfield. Sunderland went to the Etihad over the weekend and conceded three. City looked to win that game. The Reds, meanwhile, set up in a way to avoid defeat and potentially get the win.
Across these three games, Slot’s side have looked blunt. Against the Hammers, they needed a genius finish from Alexander Isak to open the scoring. With the hosts then down to 10 men and chasing the game, Gakpo added a second. Against Sunderland, Florian Wirtz danced past opponents before his wayward effort hit a defender and ended up in the back of the net. In the draw with Leeds, Liverpool benefited from a rogue Joe Rodon pass, which Hugo Ekitike converted. The Frenchman was then coming back from an offside position and found himself in the right place at the right time to convert a Conor Bradley cross.
In truth, the visitors had a lot of luck for their opening two goals at Elland Road. Leeds found their way back into the game with a lucky penalty but they didn’t deserve to be 2-0 down either. So, swings and roundabouts there.
Slot’s decision to bench Salah hasn’t freed up Ekitike or Isak. The two centre-forwards, who cost a combined £190million in the summer, have had a grand total of 14 shots across the last three matches. They have a combined xG of 2.05, and Ekitike’s goal against Leeds is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that haul.
Liverpool have improved defensively because they’ve changed the system and faced favourable opponents. The trade-off has been in attack, with the Reds looking blunt. Sacrificing Salah for this feels like a waste.
