Penalties have an Expected Goals total of 0.79. No matter who you are or the added context of the shot, there’s a 79% chance that a penalty will be scored.
Of course, not every penalty is scored. And the chance of a penalty being scored can alter based on the placement of said shot. Which is where post-shot Expected Goals comes in.
Post-shot xG does what it says on the tin. It measures the likelihood of a goal being scored after the shot has been taken — based on the placement of the shot on target. So that got us thinking. What has been the best penalty scored this season?
Which player has increased their chance of scoring a penalty based on where they have placed the shot? We’ve taken a look at the top 10, ranked on the difference between the set xG of 0.79 and the post-shot xG of penalties scored.
10. Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace)
- Match: Aston Villa 0-3 Crystal Palace
- Penalty post-shot xG: 0.82
Jean-Philippe Mateta is one of two players to have scored moer tha none penalty in the Premier League this season. His first came against Aston Villa, in Crystal Palace’s 3-0 win. It was a cool penalty against Marco Bizot, sending the goalkeeper the wrong way. As for the penalty itself, it was rolled in with pace towards the bottom left corner. One of those that is very hard to read.
9. Elliot Anderson (Nottingham Forest)
- Match: Nottingham Forest 3-1 Leeds
- Penalty post-shot xG: 0.85
Nottingham Forest capped off a long-awaited win against Leeds United with a late penalty from Elliot Anderson. The midfielder has been excellent this season and dispatched his spot-kick well. Anderson took his penalty with a lot of power, sending the ball to the left of the goal. The goalkeeper went the other way.
8. Lucas Paqueta (West Ham)
- Match: Nottingham Forest 0-3 West Ham
- Penalty post-shot xG: 0.87
West Ham United scored their second of three goals against Nottingham Forest in August from the penalty spot. Lucas Paqueta was the man to step up, with a stuttered left-footed finish. It was another cool penalty, with Paqueta waiting until the last moment before rolling the ball in to the bottom left corner. Matz Sels was rooted to the spot.
7. James Milner (Brighton)
- Match: Brighton 2-1 Man City
- Penalty post-shot xG: 0.87
James Milner helped Brighton and Hove Albion beat former club Manchester City from the penalty spot. This penalty, to equalise, was powerful and low to the bottom corner. Even if James Trafford had gone the right way, this would have been tough to stop.
6. Lukas Nmecha (Leeds)
- Match: Leeds 1-0 Everton
- Penalty post-shot xG: 0.89
Lukas Nmecha came off the bench late on to seal Leeds United’s 1-0 win over Everton on the opening weekend. And it came from the penalty spot. This is the first on the list to go to the right of the goal. It’s the first one in which the goalkeeper went the right way too. But Nmecha’s placement was just too far in the bottom corner for Jordan Pickford to reach.
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5. Matt O’Riley (Brighton)
- Match: Brighton 1-1 Fulham
- Penalty post-shot xG: 0.89
Back to the left side of the goal. Matt O’Riley put Brighton 1-0 up in their home game against Fulham on the opening weekend with his spot-kick. Despite not having a long run up, O’Riley generated a lot of power in his penalty. And that, alongside the placement, meant Bernd Leno couldn’t stop the shot even though he went the right way.
4. Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace)
- Match: Crystal Palace 3-3 Bournemouth
- Penalty post-shot xG: 0.91
Mateta’s second entry on this list and it was another low to the left of the goal. It was a hat-trick-completing goal in injury-time, also securing a point for Palace. Despite everything on the line, Mateta didn’t waiver from his usual technique. In fact, he was even better, wrapping the ball right into the bottom left corner.
3. Mo Salah (Liverpool)
- Match: Burnley 0-1 Liverpool
- Penalty post-shot xG: 0.93
Liverpool’s late penalty against Burnley shattered the Clarets’ hopes of a hard-fought point earlier this season. Mo Salah was the man to take it and, despite his struggles this season, finished emphatically. The Egyptian wasn’t taking any risks, and went for sheer power, sending the penalty into the roof of the net. It wasn’t quite in the top corner, but it also wasn’t straight down the middle.
2. Jorgen Strand Larsen (Wolves)
- Match: Wolves 2-3 Burnley
- Penalty post-shot xG: 0.95
Wolverhampton Wanderers lost a thrilling battle against Burnley at the end of November, having looked to have rescued a point. Wolves dragged it back from 2-0 down to be level at 2-2, and the comeback was started by Jorgen Strand Larsen. And what a penalty it was. This was another cool finish, with the striker winning the battle of wits with Martin Dubravka. He rolled the ball about as close to the bottom right corner as he could.
1. Nick Woltemade (Newcastle)
- Match: Newcastle 2-0 Nottingham Forest
- Penalty post-shot xG: 0.97
The best penalty so far this season belongs to Nick Woltemade. He netted for Newcastle United in their 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest, sealing the victory late on. The German somehow managed to generate extreme height on his shot despite there not appearing to be too much power. It was pretty much in the top corner and hit the roof of the net. Superb.
