The Championship has long been considered the ‘most exciting league in the world’.
But in recent seasons it has felt closer to a procession. The past few campaigns dominated by clubs with parachute payment money, returning to the Premier League within a year or two of dropping through the trap door.
Since the 2019-20 campaign, nine of the 10 clubs to win automatic promotion had spent just one or two seasons in the division having been relegated from the Premier League. Ipswich Town are the only club to buck the trend in 2023-24, rising from League One.
The play-offs have afforded us more variance. Clubs like Sunderland, Luton Town and Nottingham Forest securing promotion to the Premier League via Wembley. But each year it’s no surprise to see the teams only just relegated from the Premier League sitting towards the top of the Championship outright odds. This year was no different.
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Before the season kicked off, Ipswich were 4/1 favourites for the title with most bookmakers. Southampton — despite earning a measly 12 points (the second-lowest in Premier League history) — were second favourites at 5/1. Leicester City found themselves further down the pecking order but still fifth-favourites for automatic promotion.
The third-favourites came in the shape of Sheffield United, who finished third last season, just one year on from a second Premier League relegation in four seasons. In fourth were Birmingham City, who are backed by wealthy American owners and stormed the 2024-25 League One table with an eye-watering 111 points.
And yet, with most clubs now having played 11 games, not one of these five teams find themselves even in the play-off spots. Indeed, Sheffield United have only just hauled themselves out of the relegation zone after six straight defeats to start the campaign. Ipswich and Southampton also find themselves in the bottom half.
So what’s happened?
We can’t simply apply one theory that applies to all of these teams, but there are some through-lines. Negative momentum, poor transfer business and some disastrous managerial appointments are a recurring theme. But what’s equally noticeable is the tactical shift happening with the division’s overperformers.
Our recent deep-dives into the form of table-topping Coventry City and second-placed Middlesbrough revealed some interesting overlaps. Both sides have looked to stretch the pitch as wide as possible to create space in more central areas. They have also looked to be positive and dynamic in possession, albeit in slightly different ways.
Boro have completed the third-highest amount of take-ons and second highest number of through balls to look to pierce opposition defences. But the Sky Blues have recorded more touches in the opposition box than any team. They also have the highest percentage of sequences that end in the final third with 43.38%. Both teams are looking to get the ball forward as quickly as possible in their own impressive ways.
However, when we look at our five pre-season favourites, we see all of them in the top six teams in the league for possession. Southampton lead the way with an average of 59.5% and when we dig into some of the passing stats, the similarities become even more pronounced.
All five of the pre-season favourite teams rank in the top half for the following statistics:
- Own half passes attempted
- Own half passes completed
- Backwards passes completed
Whereas all five teams rank in the bottom half for the following statistics:
- Clearances completed
- Fast breaks
- Forward passing percentage
- Launches attempted
- Long passes attempted
- Long passes completed
There are more stats that overlap between these teams. But the above ones in particular seem to play into a certain theme. All of these teams are looking to dominate the ball as much as possible. To differing extents, they appear reticent to play percentage passes into the final third or simply take the safety-first option when pressured by opponents.
With Leicester the only exception, the other four teams allow their opponents the fewest passes per possession in the division. They all have an average lower than 4.0, with Ipswich the standout at just 3.44. Sheffield United allow their opponents the shortest time in possession on average in the league at 16.03. None of these teams allow their opponents time to dictate the tempo. But is that playing into their opponents’ hands?
When Championship teams come up against opponents that are considered stronger on paper, they’ve clearly been happy to cede possession, sit in deeper positions and create high quality chances with the space they are provided on the counter-attack. Birmingham and Southampton have conceded the fewest and second-fewest number of shots in the division respectively. It’s about the quality of chances opponents are creating against them rather than the quantity.
There are some encouraging numbers in there for certain teams. Southampton in particular will be encouraged by their Expected Goals numbers. Saints’ xG return of 21.56 for is the second-best in the division, and their 12.75 xG Conceded is the sixth-best. Ipswich and Birmingham also rank in the top seven for both xG for and against. In fact, aside from Leicester, the other four teams have underperformed their xG numbers by at least five goals already.
Four of the five teams have also created 100 or more chances this season, with Sheffield United the exception (88). Converting them has been the issue, though. No team has missed more big chances than Ipswich (23), while Southampton (19) and Birmingham (17) haven’t fared much better.
So while there is some encouragement to be found in the underlying numbers, what’s clear is that tactically these teams are relying too much on having the ball. And that’s where the contrast to Coventry and Middlesbrough becomes clearest. Both Frank Lampard and Rob Edwards have combined structure with genuine intent, using width to open central lanes and committing players through those spaces at pace. Their possession has purpose.
By comparison, the pre-season favourites have dominated the ball without dictating the tempo. So they often circulate it safely rather than breaking lines. For now, the numbers suggest that possession alone no longer guarantees control in the Championship.
The division’s new frontrunners, Coventry and Middlesbrough, have shown that verticality and a balance between control and intent matter more than simply keeping the ball. The pre-season favourites still have plenty of time to course-correct, and the underlying data hints at improvement for most of them.
But until they learn to turn control into incision, they’ll continue to look like teams stuck between philosophies rather than ones ready to return to the Premier League.