Ballon d’Or odds for 2026 still make Harry Kane the favourite for tonight’s ceremony at the London Palladium, but William Hill have eased him to 4/7 and cut Kylian Mbappe again to 6/5.
Kane was 1/3 on Thursday, the shortest price of the year in this market. Since then, however, the betting has turned sharply towards Mbappe, who was 16/1 only four days ago. If the bookmakers are right, Kane will still be the first Englishman to win the award since Michael Owen in 2001. Read why Mbappe has been cut to 6/5 before tonight’s ceremony.
Lamine Yamal is the big loser. He was odds-on at the start of October and 2/1 last week, but he is now 7/1. William Hill price the rest of the 30-man shortlist at 50/1 or bigger.
The London Palladium hosts the 2026 Ballon d’Or tonight, Monday 26th October, at 8pm UK time, the first time the ceremony has left Paris. Below, we run through the latest Ballon d’Or betting, how the market has moved and how to watch.
| Player | William Hill odds | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 4/7 | 63.6% |
| Kylian Mbappe | 6/5 | 45.5% |
| Lamine Yamal | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Any other player | 50/1 or bigger | 2.0% or less |
Ballon d’Or odds: the 2026 favourites
Harry Kane – 4/7
Harry Kane goes into tonight as the favourite after arguably the finest season of his career.
The England captain’s wait for major silverware is over. He scored 61 goals in 51 games for Bayern Munich, more than anyone in Europe, as they won a second straight Bundesliga title and the DFB-Pokal. He then led the Three Lions to the World Cup semi-finals, scoring six goals along the way.
Although England fell short against Argentina, Kane was 7/4 at the start of September and as short as 1/3 last week. He has eased to 4/7 on the day of the ceremony, which still gives him a 63.6% chance of lifting the trophy. For the full case, read why Harry Kane should win the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
Kane has admitted the wait is “very stressful” for his family, telling reporters he would love to know the result in advance.
Kylian Mbappe – 6/5
Kylian Mbappe rarely stays out of Ballon d’Or discussions for long, and he is the big mover on the day of the ceremony.
The France captain enjoyed another prolific season at club level and delivered on the international stage, too, despite Les Bleus falling short of another World Cup final. Mbappe became the all-time World Cup top goalscorer this summer, taking his tally to 22, and won the tournament’s Golden Boot.
He was 16/1 on Thursday, a 5.9% chance. Now William Hill make him 6/5, a 45.5% chance of a first Ballon d’Or, so the market has turned this into a two-horse race.
Lamine Yamal – 7/1
Lamine Yamal continues to rewrite the record books.
Still only a teenager, the Barcelona winger inspired Spain to World Cup glory with another series of match-winning performances on the biggest stage. His creativity, dribbling and composure regularly separated him from defenders throughout the tournament, and a win tonight would make him the youngest Ballon d’Or winner in history.
Yamal shared favouritism with Kane for much of 2026, but the market has turned against him this month. He has drifted from odds-on to 7/1, a 12.5% chance, and he is now a clear third in the betting.
Who else is in the mix?
Everyone else on the 30-man shortlist is 50/1 or bigger with William Hill, so a winner from outside the top three would be a major upset.
Rodri won the World Cup Golden Ball as Spain lifted the trophy. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia shortened from 33/1 into single figures after France Football revealed the shortlist, but he is now back out to 100/1.
Lionel Messi was 50/1 when the World Cup began and shortened to 4/1 after eight goals and four assists in eight matches took Argentina to another final. The market has cooled on the 39-year-old since the shortlist came out, and he is now a long shot for a ninth Ballon d’Or.
Michael Olise (150/1) has had support after an outstanding year for club and country (read why Olise is levelling up). Jude Bellingham, Ousmane Dembele, Fabian Ruiz, Erling Haaland, Achraf Hakimi and Declan Rice complete the chasing pack.
How the Ballon d’Or odds have moved
The 2026 market has swung more than once. After the World Cup final in July, Kane led at 7/4 with Yamal close behind at 9/4 and Messi into 4/1 on the back of Argentina’s run.
Yamal briefly took over at the top in late September and early October, but Kane has been odds-on since mid-October. William Hill cut him to 1/3 on Thursday 22nd October. However, he is back out to 4/7 on the day of the ceremony, while Mbappe has crashed from 16/1 to 6/5.
| Player | Start of September | 19th October | 22nd October | 26th October |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 7/4 | 4/7 | 1/3 | 4/7 |
| Lamine Yamal | 9/4 | 11/4 | 2/1 | 7/1 |
| Kylian Mbappe | 9/2 | 6/1 | 16/1 | 6/5 |
Earlier prices via Sky Bet as published on this page at the time; 22nd and 26th October prices via William Hill.
When is the Ballon d’Or 2026 ceremony and how can I watch it?
The 70th Ballon d’Or ceremony takes place at the London Palladium tonight, Monday 26th October 2026. The awards start at 8pm UK time, with red carpet coverage from around 6pm, and the show should last about two hours.
It is the first time the ceremony has been held outside Paris. Organisers chose London as a tribute to Sir Stanley Matthews, who won the first Ballon d’Or in 1956.
UK viewers can watch live and free on DAZN with a free account, and the official Ballon d’Or website also streams the ceremony.
How the Ballon d’Or is decided
France Football awards the Ballon d’Or in partnership with UEFA, and a jury of international journalists votes for the winner. The jury ranks players on individual performances, team achievements and sportsmanship.
Since 2022, the award has covered a full season rather than a calendar year. That means the 2026 edition weighs the 2025/26 club campaign together with the World Cup.
Previous winners
| Player | Year |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembele (PSG) | 2025 |
| Rodri (Man City) | 2024 |
| Lionel Messi (Inter Miami) | 2023 |
| Karim Benzema (Real Madrid) | 2022 |
| Lionel Messi (PSG) | 2021 |
| No award due to COVID pandemic | 2020 |
| Lionel Messi (Barcelona) | 2019 |
| Luka Modric (Real Madrid) | 2018 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) | 2017 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) | 2016 |
Think you know your history? Try our Ballon d’Or history quiz.
Ballon d’Or odds FAQ
You have to be 18+ to gamble. UK only. Odds via William Hill and accurate at 5.40pm on 26th October. GambleAware.
Harry Kane is the 4/7 favourite with William Hill after scoring 61 goals in 51 games as Bayern Munich won the Bundesliga and the DFB-Pokal, then reaching the World Cup semi-finals with England. William Hill have cut Kylian Mbappe to 6/5, and Lamine Yamal is 7/1.
The London Palladium hosts the 2026 Ballon d’Or on Monday 26th October 2026, starting at 8pm UK time. It is the first time the ceremony has been held outside Paris.
DAZN streams the ceremony live and free with a free account, and so does the official Ballon d’Or website. Red carpet coverage starts at around 6pm UK time.
William Hill make Harry Kane 4/7 to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or, an implied chance of 63.6%. He was 7/4 at the start of September and as short as 1/3 on 22nd October.
Ousmane Dembele won the 2025 award after an outstanding season with Paris Saint-Germain.
Messi has won a record eight Ballon d’Ors, most recently in 2023.
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