No previous meetings between these teams.
-
1
Lionel Messi8 - 2
Mikel Oyarzabal5 - 3Lautaro Martínez3
- 4Enzo Fernández2
- 5Pedro Porro2
- 6Mikel Merino2
- 7Cristian Romero1
- 8Álex Baena1
- 9Julián Alvarez1
- 10Lamine Yamal1
- 1Lionel Messi34
- 2Lamine Yamal23
- 3Mikel Oyarzabal22
- 4Alexis Mac Allister13
- 5Enzo Fernández12
- 6Ferran Torres11
- 7Dani Olmo11
- 8Álex Baena11
- 9Julián Alvarez11
- 10Lautaro Martínez10
- 1Rodri15
- 2Cristian Romero10
- 3Alexis Mac Allister10
- 4Pedro Porro9
- 5Lionel Messi9
- 6Enzo Fernández7
- 7Pedri7
- 8Lamine Yamal6
- 9Marcos Llorente6
- 10Lisandro Martínez6
- 1Lionel Messi4
- 2Dani Olmo2
- 3Marc Cucurella2
- 4Gonzalo Montiel1
- 5Ferran Torres1
- 6Rodrigo De Paul1
- 7José Manuel López1
- 8Álex Baena1
- 9Aymeric Laporte1
- 10Lautaro Martínez1
- 1Lionel Messi25
- 2Álex Baena10
- 3Pedri9
- 4Dani Olmo9
- 5Pedro Porro9
- 6Rodri9
- 7Pau Cubarsí7
- 8Rodrigo De Paul6
- 9Lamine Yamal6
- 10Mikel Oyarzabal6
- 1Rodri655
- 2Pau Cubarsí550
- 3Aymeric Laporte531
- 4Leandro Paredes495
- 5Enzo Fernández447
- 6Lisandro Martínez405
- 7Cristian Romero375
- 8Alexis Mac Allister365
- 9Pedri361
- 10Marc Cucurella313
- 1Lionel Messi24
- 2Lamine Yamal22
- 3Enzo Fernández6
- 4Dani Olmo5
- 5Lisandro Martínez5
- 6Thiago Almada4
- 7Pedri4
- 8Ferran Torres3
- 9Pedro Porro3
- 10Julián Alvarez3
- 1Aymeric Laporte13
- 2Cristian Romero10
- 3Alexis Mac Allister10
- 4Pedri9
- 5Rodrigo De Paul6
- 6Pedro Porro6
- 7Nahuel Molina6
- 8Exequiel Palacios5
- 9Marc Cucurella5
- 10Lisandro Martínez5
SpainNo absentees
Argentina- Nico Paz
- Lionel Messi
- Gonzalo Montiel
- Thiago Almada
Spain vs Argentina predictions do not come much bigger than this. The World Cup 2026 final takes place on Sunday 19th July at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey. Kick-off is scheduled for 8pm (UK time), with the game’s greatest prize and possibly its greatest player’s farewell on the line.
The two best teams in the tournament have reached the biggest game. Spain arrive having conceded once, yes once, in seven matches. Argentina, the defending champions, have scored 19 goals, more than anyone else left standing at any point this summer. Lionel Messi sits level with Kylian Mbappe on eight in the Golden Boot race, and with Mbappe’s third-place play-off on Saturday, Messi will kick off knowing exactly what he needs. An irresistible force meets an immovable object, with history watching.
Spain vs Argentina predictions & betting tips
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi to score or assist | 1/1 @ Paddy Power (50%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Nobody in this final comes close to Messi’s numbers. He has eight goals and four assists, and his 12 goal involvements are unmatched by any player on either side. He has 18 shots on target from 34 attempts and created both Argentina goals in the semi-final win over England. Spain’s defence is historically mean, but Messi has delivered in the tournament’s defining moments for a month. The general market prices him at odds on, which makes Paddy Power’s evens a standout. In what could be his final World Cup match, backing the greatest of all time at odds against feels almost rude to turn down. |
| Lautaro Martinez to score anytime | 11/4 @ Betfred (27%) | ⭐⭐ | Lautaro Martinez has become Argentina’s closer. He struck the final blow in each of the champions’ last two wins, in the 121st minute against Switzerland and then in injury time against England. That is three goals from just 311 minutes on the pitch, one every 104 minutes, whether starting or arriving from the bench. Argentina have three substitute goals at this tournament, the most in this tie, and their manager has timed his changes to devastating effect. If the final is still alive late on, the man finishing Argentina’s games is the man to be on at 11/4. |
Odds correct at time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
How both teams head into Spain vs Argentina
Spain
Spain’s route to the final has been a masterclass in control. They conceded one solitary goal in seven matches, keeping six clean sheets along the way. Group wins over Saudi Arabia and Uruguay followed a goalless draw with Cabo Verde, before Austria, Portugal, Belgium and France were dispatched in the knockouts.
Tuesday’s semi-final was their most complete display. Mikel Oyarzabal converted a 22nd-minute penalty and Pedro Porro added a second-half strike in a 2-0 win over a France side who had won every game. Spain never looked like conceding.
The curiosity remains their finishing. Spain have taken 120 shots and generated 16.99 Expected Goals (xG), yet scored just 13 times, an underperformance of almost four goals. Oyarzabal leads them with five. With 63.8% average possession, they suffocate opponents. They just do not always bury them.
Argentina
The champions have taken the opposite road: chaos, drama and an endless supply of goals. Argentina have scored 19 in seven games, from a tournament-high 17.69 xG, and twice won knockout ties from losing positions. They trailed Egypt 2-0 with 23 minutes left and won. They trailed England with five minutes left and won.
The semi-final was Messi at his purest. He did not score, but he created both goals as Enzo Fernandez equalised in the 85th minute and Lautaro Martinez won it in injury time. Argentina have also needed extra time twice in this knockout run, against Cabo Verde and Switzerland.
The concern is at the other end. Seven goals conceded and only two clean sheets is a modest defensive record for a world champion. Against the tournament’s most patient side, those lapses carry a heavier price.
Spain team news
Luis de la Fuente has changed almost nothing all tournament, and the semi-final gave him no reason to start. Marc Cucurella was Spain’s only booking against France, and they come into the final with a clean bill of health.
Mikel Merino remains the wildcard. Spain’s super-sub has two goals from just 148 minutes, both match-winners earlier in the knockouts, and offers De la Fuente a proven late weapon.
Argentina team news
Lionel Scaloni has bigger decisions. Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martinez and Rodrigo De Paul were all booked in the semi-final, taking Argentina to nine tournament yellow cards against Spain’s six.
The forward line is the eternal question. Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez have shared the striker duties, with Lautaro starting four games and finishing plenty more. Martinez’s three substitute goals suggest Scaloni may again hold his closer back.
Head-to-Head
Remarkably, these two giants have only ever met once at the World Cup, way back in 1966 when Argentina ran out 2-1 winners. That was the first ever contest between the two and there have been six meetings since, all friendlies. Spain have won four of those, with Argentina taking the victory in two. That means there has never been a draw when these two have faced off.
Goals have certainly flowed in this match historically, with an average of 3.71 goals per match across their seven meetings.
Who will be crowned world champions?
Spain are favourites at a best price of 13/10 with Matchbook, with the general market at 5/4. Argentina are 14/5 with Matchbook and AK Bets, while the draw in 90 minutes is 85/40 with BetVictor. The market trusts the tournament’s best defence over its best attack.
We are siding with the storyline and the striker delivering it. Messi to score anytime at 15/8 with CopyBet is our headline bet. Twelve goal involvements in seven games say the 39-year-old remains the tournament’s most productive player, and the price is comfortably bigger than the market average.
Lautaro Martinez at 11/4 with Betfred completes the double. Argentina’s games keep being decided late, and the same man keeps deciding them. In the biggest game of all, back the champions’ closer to write the final line.
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