The 2026 World Cup is finally here and we’ve dug into the numbers to come up with our Smarkets World Cup Predictions.
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So, without further ado, let’s get into the market and identify our three picks to back with Smarkets.
Smarkets World Cup Predictions
The favourites
Spain enters the 2026 World Cup not just as a contender, but as the reigning European champions. They showcase a formidable blend of youthful exuberance and tactical mastery. Under Luis de la Fuente, La Roja has evolved beyond their traditional ‘tiki-taka’ to a faster, more direct style, culminating in their Euro 2024 triumph where they swept aside Europe’s elite.
This new golden generation, spearheaded by electrifying talents like Lamine Yamal and the midfield maestro Pedri, boasts incredible depth and cohesion. Yamal, fresh off a sensational season, and the ever-influential Rodri in midfield, provide the backbone. That’s been the springboard for a nation that has gone 28 games unbeaten in normal time since March 2024. Their journey to the World Cup has been equally impressive, topping their qualifying group with ease.
Smarkets currently prices Spain at 16.95% to lift the World Cup trophy. This translates to an exciting return: a £10 buy on Spain could see you walk away with £59! With their proven track record and a clear path through Group H, Spain presents a compelling case for outright victory.
The dark horses
Remember Morocco’s sensational run to the semi-finals in 2022? The Atlas Lions are back, and they’re no longer just a surprise package – they’re a genuine dark horse with the potential to shock the world again. Ranked eighth globally, Morocco arrives at the 2026 World Cup with heightened expectations and a squad boasting even greater pedigree.
Under new coach Mohamed Ouahbi, who led the U-20 team to a World Cup title, Morocco is evolving. While a recent managerial change and an eventful AFCON final have added a layer of intrigue, the core talent remains undeniable. With stars like the dynamic Achraf Hakimi, the influential Brahim Diaz, and the combative Sofyan Amrabat, Morocco possesses a blend of defensive solidity and attacking flair that can trouble any opponent.
Smarkets offers an incredible opportunity to back this exciting team. Priced at 1.82%, a £10 buy on Morocco to win the World Cup could yield a staggering £549.45! Their path through Group C presents challenges, but their proven ability to defy odds makes them an enticing prospect. Don’t miss the chance to back the team that could be the biggest story of the tournament.
The outsiders
For those who love a long shot with a real chance, Turkey presents an electrifying opportunity at the 2026 World Cup. Often labelled as perennial ‘dark horses,’ this tournament sees them embrace the outsider tag. It’s a position from which they could truly stun the footballing world. With a 1% position on Smarkets, a mere £10 buy on Turkey could net you an astonishing £1,000!
Under the astute guidance of Italian coach Vincenzo Montella, Turkey has forged a high-pressing, tactically flexible team, brimming with youthful talent and seasoned experience. The squad boasts generational talents like Real Madrid’s Arda Guler and Juventus’ Kenan Yildiz. Both of whom are match-winners capable of moments of magic. Inter Milan captain Hakan Calhanoglu provides crucial class and control in midfield, anchoring the side.
Having navigated a tense playoff path to qualify, Turkey arrives with momentum and a quiet confidence. They have been drawn in Group D, featuring Australia, Paraguay, and co-hosts USA. The open group offers a platform for this exciting team to showcase their potential and build momentum. While their defence can be susceptible, their attacking prowess should prevail. The individual brilliance of their young stars make them a thrilling prospect for an upset.
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