The final round of games of the 2026 World Cup group stage take place between Wednesday and Sunday. We’ve taken a look at the group stage permutations.
We’ve broken down each group, with this article focusing on Group A. Mexico, South Korea, Czech Republic and South Africa can all still qualify for the knockout stages. That makes Group A one of the most exciting in the competition.
Below are all the permutations for those groups as well as who each team could face in the next round. It’s a little complicated but we’ve tried to make it as easy we can!
How could Group A finish?
| Result A | Result B | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Mexico win | South Africa win | 1. Mexico (9 points) 2. South Africa (4 points) 3. South Korea (3 points) 4. Czech Republic (1 point) |
| Mexico win | South Africa/South Korea draw | 1. Mexico (9 points) 2. South Korea (4 points) 3. South Africa (2 points) 4. Czech Republic (1 point) |
| Mexico win | South Korea win | 1. Mexico (9 points) 2. South Korea (6 points) 3. Czech Republic (1 point) 4. South Africa (1 point) |
| Mexico/Czech Republic draw | South Africa win | 1. Mexico (7 points) 2. South Africa (4 points) 3. South Korea (3 points) 4. Czech Republic (2 points) |
| Mexico/Czech Republic draw | South Africa/South Korea draw | 1. Mexico (7 points) 2. South Korea (4 points) 3. Czech Republic (2 points) 4. South Africa (2 points) |
| Mexico/Czech Republic draw | South Korea win | 1. Mexico (7 points) 2. South Korea (6 points) 3. Czech Republic (2 points) 4. South Africa (1 point) |
| Czech Republic win | South Africa win | 1. Mexico (6 points) 2. Czech Republic (4 points) 3. South Africa (4 points) 4. South Korea (3 points) |
| Czech Republic win | South Africa/South Korea draw | 1. Mexico (6 points) 2. South Korea (4 points) 3. Czech Republic (4 points) 4. South Africa (2 points) |
| Czech Republic win | South Korea win | 1. Mexico (6 points) 2. South Korea (6 points) 3. Czech Republic (4 points) 4. South Africa (1 point) |
Group A will be won by Mexico regardless of the results in Matchday Three. El Tri have won both of their opening games and, with standings being decided by points followed by head to head records, their victory over South Korea guarantees them top spot.
The rest of the group is still very much undecided though. The Czech Republic is the nation that stands the least chance of making it through in second place. The only way they can guarantee knockout football is by beating Mexico and hoping South Africa beat South Korea. They can finish third in five scenarios but that leaves them at the mercy of how nations in other groups fare.
South Korea have the best chance of making the knockout stage by finishing second. In six of the nine possibilities, they secure a second place finish and they can only finish bottom of the group if they lose to South Africa and Czech Republic secure all three points against Mexico.
South Africa have a small chance of directly making the knockout stage but they must beat South Korea and hope that Czech Republic don’t beat Mexico. That specific scenario would leave Czech Republic and South Africa locked on four points. As they drew their match, it would then come down to goal difference and would require South Africa to beat South Korea by two clear goals. Bafana Bafana only finish second in two of the nine permutations. They finish bottom in five of the nine possibilities, while they can only finish third in two.
Who could the teams from Group A face in the next round?
Mexico will take on one of the sides that finish third in Group C, E, F, H or I. At the time of writing the most likely outcome would be a Round of 32 match against Cape Verde.
Whoever finishes second in the group will face the second placed team from Group B. That’s currently projected to be Switzerland.
Current projections show that the side that finishes third in Group A are likely to qualify for the Round of 32. That would leave them playing the team that tops Group G which, at the time of writing, is Egypt.
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