Roma welcome Fiorentina to the Stadio Olimpico on Monday 4th May for a clash that pits a Serie A top-six contender against a side still searching for consistency.
The hosts have outscored their visitors by a hefty margin this season and boast a stronger defensive record, yet recent head-to-heads show Fiorentina are capable of upsetting the odds. Kick-off is at 19:45, and with both sides featuring key attacking talents, this fixture offers plenty for punters to consider.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on Roma’s superior season-long stats and their attacking edge, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in Roma to win, given their home strength and Fiorentina’s away struggles, but also see value in goal markets due to both teams’ chance creation profiles.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roma to Win | 4/6 @ Betfred (60.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Roma have won more than twice as many matches as Fiorentina this season and have scored 10 more goals. Their home form and attacking output give them a clear edge over a Fiorentina side with just eight wins in 34 games. |
| Both Teams to Score – Yes | 5/6 @ Betfair (54.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Both sides create plenty of chances, with Roma and Fiorentina combining for 103 big chances this season. Fiorentina’s high number of missed opportunities suggests they will get chances, even if Roma are favourites. |
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Season Form & Standings
Roma have put together a strong campaign, sitting 6th with 61 points from 34 matches (19W, 4D, 11L, +19 GD). Fiorentina, by contrast, are 15th with 37 points (8W, 13D, 13L, -7 GD), and have struggled for wins, particularly away from home. Roma’s win rate (56%) dwarfs Fiorentina’s (24%), and their goal difference highlights the gulf in quality seen across the season.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roma | 6 | 34 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 48 | 29 | +19 | 61 |
| Fiorentina | 15 | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 37 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Donyell Malen (Roma) – 11 goals this season, converting at nearly 39% shot accuracy. He’s Roma’s main threat, especially on the break.
- Matias Soule (Roma) – 5 assists and a league-high 40 key passes, making him the creative hub for Roma’s attack.
- Moise Kean (Fiorentina) – 8 goals, but with a lower shot accuracy (28.4%) and the highest number of big chances missed among the leaders, signalling he will get opportunities but may not always convert.
- Albert Guðmundsson (Fiorentina) – 4 assists and the highest pass accuracy among the creative players (86.6%), offering a reliable supply line from midfield.
Head-to-head: Last 5 Meetings
Roma and Fiorentina have shared a competitive rivalry, with Roma holding the edge overall (9 wins to 4 across 17 meetings), but recent clashes have seen both teams claim victories. The last five meetings have produced a mix of results, including high-scoring affairs and draws, suggesting neither side dominates this fixture.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 05/10/25 | Roma 1-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 04/05/25 | Fiorentina 1-0 Roma | Serie A |
| 27/10/24 | Roma 5-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 10/03/24 | Roma 2-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 10/12/23 | Fiorentina 1-1 Roma | Serie A |
Conclusion
Will Roma’s home form and attacking superiority prove too much for an unpredictable Fiorentina? The stats suggest the hosts have the upper hand, but the visitors’ knack for creating chances means goals are likely. If you’re looking for value, Roma to win at 4/6 @ Betfred (60.0%) looks the most solid play, while goals markets offer appeal given recent trends. Expect entertainment, but Roma’s consistency should see them through.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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