Osasuna and Mallorca meet at El Sadar on Saturday in a La Liga clash where both sides are desperate to bounce back from recent defeats.
With both teams failing to score last time out and their head-to-head record littered with draws, this fixture could be decided by fine margins. Kick-off is scheduled for 1pm, and the spotlight will be on Mallorca’s clinical frontman Vedat Muriqi against an Osasuna side that spreads its attacking threat more widely.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on the teams’ attacking styles, shot accuracy, and recent form, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in Osasuna to win, given their stronger underlying attacking numbers and Mallorca’s defensive frailties on the road.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna to Win | 8/11 @ Bet365 (57.9%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | We’re backing Osasuna to win because they have the edge in expected goals (xG 32.55 vs 25.67), more assists, and face a Mallorca side with just 6 wins in 26 games and a -13 goal difference. Osasuna’s home form and Mallorca’s travel struggles combine to tilt value in the hosts’ favour. |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 4/6 @ Bet365 (60.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | There could be value backing under 2.5 goals. Both teams failed to score in their last match, and 6 of the last 11 meetings have ended as draws, often low-scoring. Neither side boasts a consistently high-scoring attack, and Mallorca’s best hope lies in keeping it tight. |
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Season Form & Standings
Osasuna sit comfortably mid-table, while Mallorca are in the drop zone. Both have struggled for consistency, but Mallorca’s defensive record is the bigger concern, conceding 42 goals in 26 outings.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 10 | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 33 |
| Mallorca | 18 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 24 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Vedat Muriqi (Mallorca): 16 goals from just 9.03 xG, 43.2% shot accuracy, and virtually all of Mallorca’s attacking play runs through him.
- Ante Budimir (Osasuna): 12 goals, but a modest 25.5% shot accuracy. Most effective when Osasuna dominate territory.
- Raul Garcia (Osasuna): 5 goals and the highest shot accuracy among main contributors (58.8%). Can make an impact off the bench or as a secondary threat.
- Victor Munoz (Osasuna): 4 goals, 1 assist, and leads the team in pass completion (81%). His creativity in tight games is crucial.
Head-to-Head: Last 5 Meetings
Three of the last five meetings have been draws, and total goals are level across those games (7 each). The recent history points to a finely balanced contest, with neither side able to dominate.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 | Mallorca 2-2 Osasuna | La Liga |
| 10/02/25 | Mallorca 1-1 Osasuna | La Liga |
| 24/08/24 | Osasuna 1-0 Mallorca | La Liga |
| 14/05/24 | Osasuna 1-1 Mallorca | La Liga |
| 21/12/23 | Mallorca 3-2 Osasuna | La Liga |
Conclusion
Will Osasuna make their attacking edge count against a Mallorca side that relies so heavily on Muriqi? With both teams struggling for goals last time out and their recent meetings often ending all square, this looks set to be a tight affair. Still, the edge in underlying numbers and home advantage makes 8/11 @ Bet365 (57.9%) on Osasuna appeal as the best value selection if you’re having a flutter this weekend.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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