With just a point and two league places separating Newcastle and Everton, Saturday’s clash at St. James’ Park could be crucial in shaping the mid-table Premier League battle.
Newcastle boast the stronger attacking stats but trail Everton in the table, adding extra intrigue to this match-up. Kick-off is at 15:00 on Saturday 28 February, and with both teams needing a statement win, the scene is set for a compelling contest.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on Newcastle’s attacking numbers and both teams’ recent defensive lapses, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in goals being on the menu, given Newcastle’s high xG and Everton’s tendency to concede away from home.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle to Win | 8/11 @ Bet365 (57.9%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | We are backing Newcastle to win because they have scored more goals (38 vs 29), create more chances (357 shots, xG 44.8), and dominated Everton 4-1 in the reverse fixture. Their shot and pass accuracy is notably higher, and they have home advantage. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 8/11 @ Bet365 (57.9%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | There could be value here due to Newcastle’s high shot volume and Everton’s leaky defence (39 and 31 goals conceded respectively). The last meeting ended 4-1, and both sides’ recent games suggest attacking intent. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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Newcastle vs Everton match odds
How both teams head into Newcastle vs Everton
Newcastle United’s 2025/26 Premier League campaign has been a story of domestic inconsistency contrasted by European brilliance. The Magpies sit eleventh in the table with thirty-six points from twenty-seven matches. While their league form has fluctuated—highlighted by a recent four-game winless streak ended by a vital victory over Tottenham Hotspur—Eddie Howe’s side has struggled to maintain a positive goal difference, conceding thirty-nine times.
Conversely, their Champions League journey has been historic. Newcastle recently progressed to the Round of 16 following a commanding 9-3 aggregate victory over FK Qarabag. Anthony Gordon has cemented his status as a club icon, becoming their all-time leading scorer in the competition. Despite a narrow 2-1 defeat to Manchester City, the squad remains competitive. The focus remains on climbing the domestic standings while balancing the rigours of elite European knockout football.
Everton’s 2025/26 Premier League campaign has been defined by a historic transition to the Hill Dickinson Stadium. While the move marks a new era, the Toffees have endured significant “growing pains” at their new home, winning just four of fourteen matches there so far. Despite these struggles, David Moyes’ side remains competitive in the top half of the table, currently sitting ninth after twenty-seven fixtures.
The goalscoring burden has been shared across the squad, with Iliman Ndiaye, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, and summer arrival Thierno Barry all tied on five goals apiece. Defensively, Jarrad Branthwaite and James Tarkowski continue to provide stability, though a recent 1-0 defeat to Manchester United highlighted lingering issues with chance creation. Although inconsistent home form remains a concern, Everton stay firmly in the hunt for European qualification. The primary challenge for the remainder of the season will be turning their impressive new surroundings into a genuine fortress.
Newcastle team news
Newcastle United host Everton at St. James’ Park this Saturday with Eddie Howe managing a “fragile” squad following their midweek Champions League triumph over Qarabag.
The Magpies remain without captain Bruno Guimarães, who is sidelined with a long-term hamstring injury. Defensive options are further depleted as Tino Livramento, Fabian Schär, and Emil Krafth continue their recoveries. However, Sven Botman and Yoane Wissa have recently returned to training, providing a timely boost for the home side.
Midfielder Jacob Ramsey is a major doubt after a hamstring scare, while Lewis Miley remains out, leaving Sandro Tonali and Joelinton to anchor the midfield.
Everton team news
Everton travel to St. James’ Park this Saturday with manager David Moyes facing key selection dilemmas. The Toffees will be without long-term absentee Jack Grealish, who remains sidelined with a stress fracture in his foot. Attacking midfielder Charly Alcaraz is also ruled out for several weeks after picking up a training-ground injury.
However, the Blues are boosted by the return of defender Jake O’Brien following his suspension. In goal, Jordan Pickford continues, but back-up Mark Travers is a major doubt with a finger injury, leading to the emergency recall of teenage goalkeeper George Pickford from his recent Southport loan spell.
Season Form & Standings
Both teams sit mid-table, with Everton just edging Newcastle by a single point. Everton are 9th (37 points), Newcastle 11th (36 points), but Newcastle have outscored their rivals and posted better underlying numbers in attack.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 9 | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 37 |
| Newcastle | 11 | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 38 | 39 | -1 | 36 |
Head-to-head: Last 6 Meetings
These sides have been tough to separate recently, with each winning two of the last six and the other two ending in draws. Newcastle did, however, run out 4-1 winners on their last meeting at Goodison Park.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 | Everton 1-4 Newcastle | Premier League |
| 25/05/25 | Newcastle 0-1 Everton | Premier League |
| 05/10/24 | Everton 0-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| 02/04/24 | Newcastle 1-1 Everton | Premier League |
| 07/12/23 | Everton 3-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
Conclusion: Will Newcastle’s Attack Outgun Everton?
Newcastle’s attacking metrics and their recent 4-1 win at Goodison suggest they have the firepower to edge this contest, especially with Bruno Guimaraes pulling the strings. However, Everton’s resilience and creative midfield could mean goals at both ends. Our best bet is on Newcastle to win at 8/11 with Bet365 (57.9% implied), but there’s also value in backing over 2.5 goals for a lively encounter.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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