St. James’ Park sets the stage for a Premier League clash between Newcastle and Aston Villa on Sunday afternoon. The game kicks-off at 2:00pm and can be seen live on Sky Sports. Below you can find our match preview and best bets, including a selection from the shots-on-target market.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle to Win | 10/11 @ BetMGM (52.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Newcastle United are unbeaten in their last eight home Premier League matches (W6 D2) and have started 2026 with consecutive victories at St James’ Park, beating Crystal Palace and Leeds. Villa, on the other hand, have failed to score in their last two. Emery’s men faced a tough Europa League trip to Turkey on Thursday and will have had significantly less time to prepare. Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 17 home league games against Aston Villa (W11 D6), winning the last four by an aggregate score of 13-1. |
| Joelinton Over 0.5 Shots on Target | 9/5 @ BetMGM (35.7%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | We fancy the hosts to rack up the shots on Sunday, with Villa sitting back and soaking up the pressure. Joelinton catches the eye in the shots on target market. The Brazilian has recorded at least one shot on target in four of his last five league games, with totals of 2,1,0,2,1. At the Dolly Parton price of 9/5 he looks a shade too big in the market to clear the 0.5 line here. |
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How both teams go into Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Newcastle’s recent trip to Wolverhampton ended in frustration as the Magpies’ three-game Premier League winning run came to a halt with a 0-0 draw. Despite recording their highest ever pass success rate of 94% in a top-flight half, Eddie Howe’s side couldn’t get a shot on target in the first period and struggled to break through in the second. The draw leaves Newcastle in eighth place, just three points shy of fourth in a tightly contested race for European spots.
Home form remains a strength for the Magpies, who have scored at least twice in each of their last eight Premier League home games, remaining unbeaten across all of them and starting 2026 with two wins on their own turf. Their midweek 3-0 Champions League victory over PSV Eindhoven also highlighted their attacking quality, suggesting that Howe’s team can quickly bounce back from the stalemate at Molineux.
Aston Villa bounced back from domestic disappointment with a 1-0 Europa League win over Fenerbahce, thanks to a Jadon Sancho strike, restoring some momentum for Unai Emery’s side. Despite being considered surprise title contenders alongside Arsenal and Manchester City, Villa recently suffered a rare home defeat to Everton, ending their incredible 11-match winning streak at Villa Park. The loss leaves them seven points behind the league leaders but still comfortably ahead of fourth place as the season enters its final stages.
Villa’s struggles at home have been compounded by a lack of goals, failing to score in consecutive Premier League matches at Villa Park. Their away form, while statistically strong in results, paints a less positive picture, as they have conceded 16 goals and scored just 15 on the road. The Lions now face a tough challenge, travelling to a venue where they have not won in 17 top-flight encounters.
Newcastle team news
Bruno Guimaraes faces a late fitness test. Fabian Schar, Valentino Livramento, Emil Krafth and Jacob Murphy are out injured.
Aston Villa team news
Boubacar Kamara, John McGinn and Ross Barkley are out for the visitors. Emi Martinez is a doubt.
Season Form & Standings
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 3 | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 45 | 21 | +24 | 43 |
| Newcastle United | 8 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 27 | +5 | 33 |
Head-to-Head: Last 6 Meetings
It’s been even between these sides in recent years, with three draws and three wins each in the last six contests. Tight margins have defined this fixture, and the most recent encounters have seen goals at both ends.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 16/08/25 | Aston Villa 0-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| 19/04/25 | Aston Villa 4-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| 26/12/24 | Newcastle 3-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 30/01/24 | Aston Villa 1-3 Newcastle | Premier League |
| 12/08/23 | Newcastle 5-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
Conclusion: Who Seizes the Initiative?
Villa may be higher in the table than Newcastle, but we fancy the home side to get the three points here. The Magpies are unbeaten in their last eight at home, and Villa had to travel to Turkey on Thursday to take on Fenerbahce. Back Newcastle in the match result market at 10/11.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
