Two African giants collide as Egypt and Nigeria face off in the AFCON third place playoff on 17 January, with kick-off set for 16:00.
Both sides have been in impressive form this tournament, but disappointment in the semi-final means these two nations play in the game that no one wants to feature in. This contest at Stade Mohamed V promises tension, technical quality, and a fascinating tactical battle between Africa’s most decorated national teams.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on Nigeria’s attacking output, Egypt’s defensive resilience, and standout individual performances, here are our top betting recommendations. We’re particularly confident in Nigeria to win, given their superior creativity and perfect group record so far.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria to Win | 13/10 @ Bet365 (43.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | We are backing Nigeria because they have a 100% win record in the group, average 4.7 big chances created per game, and have netted 14 goals (tournament-high). Their pass accuracy (87.6%) and possession (60.1%) point to sustained control, and with Lookman and Osimhen in form, they have the most dynamic attack in the tournament. |
| Both Teams to Score – Yes | 10/11 @ Bet365 (52.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | There could be value here: Nigeria have scored in every group game, Egypt’s Mohamed Salah has 4 goals already, and the Pharaohs have only failed to score once this campaign. Both sides possess attacking threats and average over 3 big chances created per match. |
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Season Form & Standings
Nigeria enjoyed the perfect group campaign at the 2025 AFCON, winning all three of their games and scoring eight goals along the way. Their defensive deficiencies were on display though, with the Super Eagles conceding four times in their three group games.
The knockout stages saw Nigeria overcome Mozambique by a 4-0 scoreline, leading to a quarter final tie against Algeria. Nigeria were again able to keep a clean sheet and ran out 2-0 winners, setting up a huge semi-final with hosts, Morocco. The game ended 0-0 with penalties needed to separate the two teams. Morocco triumphed, leaving Nigeria to face this third place playoff.
Egypt topped their group, winning two of their three games and securing a draw against Angola to seal their qualification. Goals were sparse in Egypt’s games, with The Pharaohs scoring just three times and conceding just a single goal.
Egypt needed extra time to beat Benin in the round of 16, eventually running out 3-1 winners. The quarter final saw them overcome Ivory Coast, needing a Mo Salah goal to see off their opponents 3-2. They didn’t have luck on their side in the semi-final, losing 1-0 to Senegal and relegating them to appear in the third place playoff.
Potential Match-Winners
- Mohamed Salah (Egypt): 4 goals in 3 matches, 66.7% shot accuracy, 11 big-chance assists – Egypt’s main attacking outlet and penalty taker.
- Victor Osimhen (Nigeria): Also with 4 goals, plus 2 assists. Though his shot accuracy is lower (37.5%), his movement and threat in behind are constant problems for defences.
- Ademola Lookman (Nigeria): 4 assists and a remarkable 14 big-chance assists, with a 75% shot accuracy. His creativity and direct running could be decisive.
- Omar Marmoush (Egypt): A consistent attacking partner for Salah, contributing to Egypt’s forward play. Watch for his link-up and pressing work.
Head-to-Head: Last 5 Meetings
These two nations have met a few times over the past 10 years, with the spoils being shared. Both nations have won two of those five games, with one ending in a draw.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 16/12/25 | Egypt 2-1 Nigeria | Friendly |
| 11/01/22 | Nigeria 1-0 Egypt | AFCON |
| 26/03/19 | Nigeria 1-0 Egypt | Friendly |
| 29/03/16 | Egypt 1-0 Nigeria | AFCON |
| 25/03/16 | Nigeria 1-1 Egypt | AFCON |
Conclusion
Will Egypt’s defensive organisation and Mohamed Salah’s clinical edge be enough to stop Nigeria’s high-flying, creative attack? Or will the Super Eagles’ control and firepower secure another statement win? The numbers point to Nigeria as favourites, and with 13/10 @ Bet365 (43.5% implied probability) available for the away win, there’s definite value for those seeking a confident selection.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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