Bournemouth travel to Turf Moor to face a Burnley side desperate for points as the Premier League season heads into its final stretch.
Bournemouth’s superior balance at both ends of the pitch clashes with Burnley’s backs-to-the-wall approach – and with only one win in their last six, Burnley are under real pressure to turn around their form. Kick-off is at 15:00 on Saturday 14 March.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on the season’s attacking and defensive stats, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in Bournemouth to win, given their stronger underlying metrics and Burnley’s defensive frailties.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to Win | 5/6 @ Bet365 (54.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Bournemouth have scored 44 goals this season (vs 32 for Burnley) and boast better possession, pass accuracy, and clean sheets. Burnley’s leaky defence has allowed 58 goals – third worst in the league. |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 11/10 @ Bet365 (47.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Both teams have struggled to convert big chances, with Bournemouth missing 43 and Burnley 22. Burnley’s home games often see them sit deep, and Bournemouth’s away matches have averaged fewer goals than at home. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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Burnley vs Bournemouth match odds
How both teams head into Burnley vs Bournemouth
Burnley’s return to the Premier League has been a significant struggle, with Scott Parker’s side firmly embroiled in a relegation battle. After 29 matches, the Clarets sit 19th in the table with just 19 points, nine adrift of safety. Their campaign has yielded only four wins against 18 defeats, and they possess one of the league’s leakiest defences, having conceded 58 goals.
A difficult start saw heavy defeats to Manchester City and Spurs, though early wins against Sunderland and Leeds offered brief hope. However, a winless run stretching 16 games at one point saw them plummet down the table. A surprise 3-2 away victory against Crystal Palace in February provided a rare highlight, followed by credible draws with Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea. Despite significant summer investment, including the club-record signing of Lesley Ugochukwu, survival looks a formidable challenge for the Clarets.
Bournemouth have enjoyed a solid season back in the top flight under Andoni Iraola, establishing themselves comfortably in mid-table. After 29 games, the Cherries sit 9th with 40 points, a testament to their resilience despite a significant turnover of players. Their campaign has been defined by a high number of draws, with 13 stalemates illustrating their competitive nature but also a struggle to turn one point into three.
The sale of top scorer Antoine Semenyo to Manchester City in January for a club-record fee was a major talking point, but the team has adapted well, with others stepping up to score crucial goals. Memorable results include a thrilling 4-4 draw away at Manchester United and impressive home victories against Liverpool and Tottenham. While their away form has been inconsistent, their strength at the Vitality Stadium has been the bedrock of their successful campaign so far.
Burnley team news
Burnley face a significant injury crisis ahead of their crucial home clash with Bournemouth. Scott Parker will be without at least ten players, including captain Josh Cullen, who is out long-term with a cruciate ligament injury. Defender Connor Roberts is also unavailable as he serves a one-match suspension.
Further absentees include Jordan Beyer (hamstring), Zeki Amdouni (knee) and Mike Trésor (ankle), while Marcus Edwards and Armando Broja are fitness doubts with knocks.
Bournemouth team news
Bournemouth travel to Burnley with a number of long-term absentees still unavailable for Andoni Iraola. Midfielder Lewis Cook is sidelined with a thigh injury and is not expected back until mid-April.
Forwards Justin Kluivert and Ben Gannon-Doak both remain on the treatment table following knee and hamstring surgeries respectively. Youngsters Matai Akinmboni and Julio Soler are also ruled out. However, the Cherries have no new injury concerns or suspensions to contend with for the trip to Turf Moor.
Season Form & Standings
Bournemouth have quietly put together a solid campaign, sitting 9th with 40 points and a -2 goal difference. Burnley remain deep in relegation trouble, 19th with only 19 points and a worrying -26 goal difference from 29 matches.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Bournemouth | 9 | 29 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 40 |
| Burnley | 19 | 29 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 28 | 54 | -26 | 19 |
Head-to-Head: Last 6 Meetings
The last six meetings have been closely contested, with both sides picking up points and a handful of games ending in draws. Their most recent encounter finished 1-1 in December.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 20/12/25 | Bournemouth 1-1 Burnley | Premier League |
| 03/03/24 | Burnley 0-2 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 28/10/23 | Bournemouth 2-1 Burnley | Premier League |
| 07/01/23 | Bournemouth 2-4 Burnley | FA Cup |
| 09/02/21 | Burnley 0-2 Bournemouth | FA Cup |
| 22/02/20 | Burnley 3-0 Bournemouth | Premier League |
Conclusion: Will Bournemouth’s Balance Prevail?
Bournemouth’s superior attack, greater control in midfield, and tighter defence all point towards an away win at Turf Moor. Burnley’s reliance on their goalkeeper and their struggle to create big chances make them unlikely to spring a surprise unless Dubravka produces another masterclass. Our best bet is Bournemouth to win at 5/6 with Bet365 (54.5%), which offers solid value given the gulf in season-long stats and recent meetings.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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