Already relegated Burnley take on Aston Villa in the Premier League on Sunday afternoon. Fresh off the back of reaching the Europa League final, Unai Emery’s men arrive here on a high. Kick-off is set for 2:00pm at Turf Moor and below you can find our match preview and best bets.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to Win | 4/7 @ Betfair (63.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Villa have won five of the last nine meetings and sit 14 places above Burnley in the table. Burnley have conceded 71 goals this season, the worst in the league, while Villa’s xG and possession stats point to sustained attacking dominance. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 8/11 @ Bet365 (57.9%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Villa’s attack has averaged 1.37 goals per game, Burnley’s defence is the league’s weakest, and recent meetings have featured goals: five of the last six H2Hs have produced three or more goals. |
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
How both teams go into Burnley vs Aston Villa
Burnley are already relegated and their struggles continued in a heavy defeat to Leeds United, with the game effectively over early on before Loum Tchaouna scored a late consolation. Since that surprise win over Crystal Palace, Burnley have gone nine league games without a victory and are now on the brink of a sixth straight defeat.
Form has collapsed under interim boss Mike Jackson, with Burnley recording just one win in 2026 and sitting among the worst performers in the division. They now face a tough test against a side chasing Europe, needing a major improvement to avoid another defeat and continue their poor run against top opposition.
Aston Villa head to Burnley as clear favourites, especially after a huge midweek win that booked their place in the UEFA Europa League final, with Emiliano Buendia, Ollie Watkins and John McGinn all playing key roles in a dominant second leg comeback against SC Freiburg. That success boosts confidence but also raises questions over a potential post European hangover, even with Villa still firmly in the hunt for a top five finish under Unai Emery.
Villa sit fifth with a small gap to their rivals, but cannot afford to lose focus in the league, especially with AFC Bournemouth still pushing behind them. They arrive in strong head to head form against Burnley, who have won just once in 26 top flight games, and will believe they can extend that dominance in Lancashire despite the emotional toll of their European breakthrough.
Season Form & Standings
2025/26 season to date
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 5 | 35 | 17 | 7 | 11 | 48 | 44 | +4 | 58 |
| Burnley | 19 | 35 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 20 |
Head-to-Head
Last 6 Meetings
Aston Villa have lost just once to Burnley in their last nine encounters, winning five and drawing three. Villa have also averaged two goals a game in their last three trips to Turf Moor.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 05/10/25 | Burnley 2-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 30/12/23 | Burnley 3-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 27/08/23 | Burnley 1-3 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 19/05/22 | Burnley 1-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 07/05/22 | Aston Villa 3-1 Burnley | Premier League |
| 27/01/21 | Burnley 3-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
Final Thoughts
Villa’s statistical superiority is hard to ignore, but football isn’t played on spreadsheets. Burnley will fight for survival at home and have caused the occasional upset in recent years, including a win earlier this season. Still, Villa’s firepower and organisation make them the clear favourites. Will Burnley’s desperation be enough to disrupt the pattern, or will Villa justify their status as 4/7 favourites with Betfair? Our money is on Villa to get the job done at Turf Moor.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Read more:
- Latest football news
- Football betting tips
- Best betting sites
- Best free bet offers
- Football accumulator tips
