League Two kicks off on Saturday 15th August, with Newport County vs Rochdale and Oldham Athletic vs Port Vale among the opening fixtures. We have crunched the numbers across all 24 clubs to project the final table before a ball is kicked. Our model blends betting market prices with last season’s results to build one strength score per club.
How the Squawka projection works
The model builds a blended score for every club, then ranks the division from one to 24. Market strength counts for 60%, taken from the best available outright title price across all listed bookmakers. Form counts for 40%, based on each club’s 2025/26 points.
Recorded transfer fees are too sparse at this level to build a reliable spending measure, so the model leans on the market and form instead. Form scores use on-pitch points only. Clubs relegated from League One carry an uplift. York City and Rochdale arrive from the National League without comparable form data, so the market leads for them. This is a Squawka projection, not a certainty. Treat it as a data-led starting point for the season.
The predicted table
| Pos | Club | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | Automatic promotion |
| 2 | Chesterfield | Automatic promotion |
| 3 | Port Vale | Automatic promotion |
| 4 | Barnet | Play-offs |
| 5 | Rotherham United | Play-offs |
| 6 | Grimsby Town | Play-offs |
| 7 | Bristol Rovers | Play-offs |
| 8 | York City | |
| 9 | Northampton Town | |
| 10 | Exeter City | |
| 11 | Oldham Athletic | |
| 12 | Swindon Town | |
| 13 | Walsall | |
| 14 | Colchester United | |
| 15 | Crewe Alexandra | |
| 16 | Gillingham | |
| 17 | Rochdale | |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | |
| 19 | Shrewsbury Town | |
| 20 | Cheltenham Town | |
| 21 | Accrington Stanley | |
| 22 | Tranmere Rovers | |
| 23 | Crawley Town | Relegation |
| 24 | Newport County | Relegation |
The title race
Salford City top the projection after the cruellest of near misses. The Ammies finished fourth last season on 81 points, then fell short in the play-offs while Notts County went up instead. The market makes them clear favourites at 5/1, the strongest show of confidence in the division. Macaulay Langstaff’s arrival from Millwall adds proven EFL goals to an already potent attack.
Chesterfield take second. The Spireites earned 79 points last season and reached the play-offs themselves, and the market rates them fourth-favourites at 9/1. Port Vale complete the automatic places. The Valiants dropped out of League One with 42 points, but the model’s relegation uplift and a 10/1 market price both point to an immediate response.
The play-off picture
Barnet, Rotherham United and Grimsby Town fill three of the four projected play-off spots. Barnet impressed on their return to the EFL last season with 76 points and an eighth-placed finish, one place short of the play-offs. Rotherham arrive from League One with a market price of 11/1 and the residue of a squad assembled for the division above. Grimsby posted 78 points last season and reached the play-offs, and the model expects them to go again.
Bristol Rovers are the market’s pick that form cannot justify. The Gas finished 14th last season on 62 points, yet bookmakers price them at 15/2, the second-shortest odds in the division. That single number carries them to seventh in our projection. Something is driving that price, and their opening trip to York City on the first Saturday will offer an early clue.
The relegation scrap
Newport County anchor the projection at 80/1 after a 43-point season that ended just three places above the drop. Crawley Town join the Exiles in the projected bottom two. All three finished in the bottom five last season, and none has convinced the market since. Tranmere Rovers , Accrington Stanley and Cheltenham Town sit just above the cut and cannot afford slow starts.
One to watch
York City project eighth, and the number deserves attention. The Minstermen arrive from the National League, yet bookmakers price them at 9/1, level with Chesterfield and ahead of most established clubs. Our model carries no form score for them, so that price does all the work. Promoted clubs backed this strongly usually justify it. If the market has read York right, the play-offs are the floor rather than the ceiling.
Exeter City offer the opposite case. The Grecians carry the strongest form uplift in the division after relegation, yet the market prices them at just 20/1. One of those two signals is wrong, and the gap makes Exeter the projection’s biggest wildcard in tenth.
Read more:
- Latest football news
- Football betting tips
- Best betting sites
- Best free bet offers
- Football accumulator tips
