League One kicks off on Saturday 15th August, when Notts County host Leicester City at Meadow Lane in a fixture few saw coming two years ago. We have crunched the numbers across all 24 clubs to project the final table before a ball is kicked. Our model blends betting market prices with last season’s results to build one strength score per club.
How the Squawka projection works
The model builds a blended score for every club, then ranks the division from one to 24. Market strength counts for 60%, taken from the best available outright title price across all listed bookmakers. Form counts for 40%, based on each club’s 2025/26 points.
Recorded transfer fees are too sparse at this level to build a reliable spending measure, so the model leans on the market and form instead. Form scores use on-pitch points only, so deductions are excluded. Clubs relegated from the Championship carry an uplift. Promoted clubs carry a downgrade. Both adjustments follow a fixed formula. This is a Squawka projection, not a certainty. Treat it as a data-led starting point for the season.
The predicted table
| Pos | Club | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leicester City | Automatic promotion |
| 2 | Luton Town | Automatic promotion |
| 3 | Sheffield Wednesday | Play-offs |
| 4 | Oxford United | Play-offs |
| 5 | Stockport County | Play-offs |
| 6 | Plymouth Argyle | Play-offs |
| 7 | Bradford City | |
| 8 | Huddersfield Town | |
| 9 | Stevenage | |
| 10 | Wycombe Wanderers | |
| 11 | Milton Keynes Dons | |
| 12 | Blackpool | |
| 13 | Reading | |
| 14 | Mansfield Town | |
| 15 | Barnsley | |
| 16 | Wigan Athletic | |
| 17 | Doncaster Rovers | |
| 18 | Peterborough United | |
| 19 | Notts County | |
| 20 | Leyton Orient | |
| 21 | Burton Albion | Relegation |
| 22 | Cambridge United | Relegation |
| 23 | AFC Wimbledon | Relegation |
| 24 | Bromley | Relegation |
The title race
Leicester City top the projection by a wide margin, and the market makes them the shortest-priced favourites anywhere in the EFL at 9/4. The Foxes earned 52 points on the pitch last season before a six-point deduction dropped them to 23rd. Their squad quality dwarfs this level, and Alex McCarthy’s arrival adds experienced competition in goal. A club of this size at this level is a rarity, and the numbers treat them accordingly.
Luton Town take the second automatic spot. The Hatters finished seventh last season on 74 points, missing the play-offs by a single place. Continuity is their advantage. Most rivals above them last season have either gone up or lost key players, while George Johnston has arrived to strengthen the defence.
The play-off picture
Sheffield Wednesday project third, but the ranking carries a clear warning. The Owls earned just 18 points on the pitch last season, a total wiped to zero by deductions. Their market price of 5/1 does almost all the work here, reflecting an expected squad rebuild. Barry Bannan’s return from Millwall and the arrival of Ricardo Santos suggest that rebuild is underway. If it stalls, this projection will look very generous.
Oxford United are the quiet pick. Relegated with 47 on-pitch points, they project fourth at a market price of 14/1. Stockport County and Plymouth Argyle complete the top six. Stockport finished third last season on 77 points before falling short in the play-offs, and the model expects another strong campaign.
Bradford City are the unluckiest club in the projection. They matched Stockport’s 77 points last season, yet the market prices them at 16/1 rather than 12/1. That gap alone drops the Bantams to seventh.
The relegation scrap
All four promoted clubs land in the bottom half, and three project into the drop zone. Bromley, champions of League Two with 87 points, sit bottom at 100/1. AFC Wimbledon and Cambridge United join them, with Burton Albion completing the projected bottom four. Notts County, promoted through the play-offs, fare best of the new arrivals in 19th.
That clustering reflects the market’s deep scepticism about newly promoted clubs at this level. History offers them some hope. At least one promoted club usually beats these odds, and Bromley’s points total last season was the division’s best.
One to watch
Milton Keynes Dons project 11th despite a 12/1 price that ranks joint-sixth in the market. MK Dons won 86 points in League Two last season and have added Ryan Wintle and Daniel Barlaser to their midfield. The form downgrade for promoted clubs holds them back here. If their recruitment carries them through the step up, the top six is within reach.
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