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Squawka / News / Germany vs Paraguay: predictions, best bets, stats and odds

Germany vs Paraguay: predictions, best bets, stats and odds

29 Jun · 21:30 Gillette Stadium · FIFA World Cup

No previous meetings between these teams.

Goals
  • 1
    Germany
    Deniz Undav
    3
  • 2
    Germany
    Kai Havertz
    2
  • 3
    Germany
    Leroy Sané
    1
  • 4
    Germany
    Felix Nmecha
    1
  • 5
    Germany
    Jamal Musiala
    1
Shots
  • 1
    Germany
    Florian Wirtz
    8
  • 2
    Germany
    Felix Nmecha
    8
  • 3
    Germany
    Kai Havertz
    8
  • 4
    Germany
    Jamal Musiala
    6
  • 5
    Paraguay
    Julio Enciso
    5
Tackles Won
  • 1
    Paraguay
    Juan José Cáceres
    9
  • 2
    Germany
    Felix Nmecha
    8
  • 3
    Paraguay
    Andrés Cubas
    8
  • 4
    Paraguay
    Matías Galarza
    8
  • 5
    Paraguay
    Julio Enciso
    4
Assists
  • 1
    Paraguay
    Julio Enciso
    2
  • 2
    Germany
    Florian Wirtz
    2
  • 3
    Germany
    Deniz Undav
    2
  • 4
    Germany
    Joshua Kimmich
    2
  • 5
    Germany
    Felix Nmecha
    1
Chances Created
  • 1
    Germany
    Florian Wirtz
    8
  • 2
    Germany
    Joshua Kimmich
    8
  • 3
    Germany
    Deniz Undav
    7
  • 4
    Paraguay
    Julio Enciso
    5
  • 5
    Germany
    Jamal Musiala
    4
Passes Completed
  • 1
    Germany
    Jonathan Tah
    252
  • 2
    Germany
    Joshua Kimmich
    182
  • 3
    Germany
    Aleksandar Pavlovic
    167
  • 4
    Germany
    Florian Wirtz
    149
  • 5
    Germany
    Felix Nmecha
    118
Take Ons Completed
  • 1
    Paraguay
    Julio Enciso
    11
  • 2
    Germany
    Jamal Musiala
    9
  • 3
    Germany
    Florian Wirtz
    7
  • 4
    Paraguay
    Juan José Cáceres
    4
  • 5
    Paraguay
    Matías Galarza
    4
Interceptions
  • 1
    Paraguay
    Diego Gómez
    7
  • 2
    Paraguay
    Andrés Cubas
    5
  • 3
    Germany
    Nico Schlotterbeck
    5
  • 4
    Germany
    Joshua Kimmich
    4
  • 5
    Paraguay
    Omar Alderete
    3

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01
Neuer
18
Brown
15
Schlotterbeck
04
Tah
06
Kimmich
05
Pavlovic
23
Nmecha
17
Wirtz
10
Musiala
19
Sané
07
Havertz
19
Enciso
25
Pitta
23
Galarza
16
Bobadilla
14
Cubas
10
Almirón
06
Alonso
03
Alderete
15
Gómez
04
José Cáceres
12
Gill

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Germany are expected to reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 World Cup, but they will have to overcome Paraguay in their first knock-out fixture in Boston. Kick-off is scheduled for 9.30pm (UK time) on Monday 29th June.

Die Mannschaft were far from convincing in the group stage despite a 7-1 mauling of Curacao in their opener. After that, they required a last-gasp Deniz Undav winner to overcome Ivory Coast before going down 1-2 to Ecuador.

Paraguay on the other hand got off to the worst start imaginable by losing 4-1 to USA in Los Angeles. From there, Albirroja managed a shock win over Turkey despite going down to ten men, meaning a goalless draw against Australia in their final group game was enough to send the South Americans into the knock-out rounds.

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Germany vs Paraguay predictions & betting tips

Our PredictionOdds & BookmakerConfidenceWhy We’re Backing It
Germany to win to nil21/20 @ Betfred
(48.8%)
⭐⭐⭐⭐Germany have not yet kept a clean sheet at this tournament, but this Paraguay side have struggled to create chances. Only five teams created fewer than their total of 17 chances created in the group stages – and only one of those was a big chance. Given that all three of those games came against weaker opponents than die Mannschaft, we can’t see the South Americans troubling Julian Nagelsmann and his team in this match.
Florian Wirtz anytime assist9/4 @ Bet365
(30.8%)
⭐⭐⭐Florian Wirtz remains one of the main creative outlets in this Germany side and they will need him to fashion some chances in this game against a deep-lying Paraguayan backline. The Liverpool man assisted Felix Nmecha for Germany’s first goal of the tournament against Curacao and repeated the trick for Leroy Sane against Ecuador last time out. 9/4 feels like good value for another assist in a game that Germany should win relatively comfortably.

Odds correct at time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.

How both teams go into Germany vs Paraguay

Germany

This is by no means a vintage Germany outfit. Die Mannschaft may have looked impressive in dismantling Curacao in their opening game, but even then they were briefly on level terms with the Blue Wave and thought the 7-1 final score didn’t exactly flatter them, the level of opposition clearly wasn’t particularly high.

Against Ivory Coast in their second game, Julian Nagelsmann’s team were far from convincing. The Elephants took the lead on the half-hour mark in Toronto and led for the majority of the game. Eventually however the four-time winners were able to get their second three points of the tournament. Deniz Undav was the hero in that game, coming off the bench to score two goals – including a 94th minute winner.

With qualification secured, it’s perhaps a little unsurprising that once again Germany weren’t at the races in their final group game. That match was all about Ecuador, who came from a goal down to win 2-1 in New Jersey. Questions are being asked about this German side but in all honesty, they should face few problems in overcoming Paraguay.

Paraguay

Not many people will have been expecting Paraguay to qualify after Matchday One. Not only were Albirroja dreadful in losing 4-1 to co-hosts USA in their opening game, but a win for unfancied Australia over Turkey seemingly didn’t play in their hands with the Crescent-Stars expected to improve as the tournament went on.

Instead, Paraguay actually beat Turkey in their second game. After going ahead in the second minute through Matias Galarza, boss Gustavo Alfaro adopted a defensive approach, which ended up paying dividends as his side held on for an unexpected 1-0 win. That despite one of their key men, Miguel Almiron, being sent off on the stroke of half-time in a controversial decision.

Without Almiron and knowing that a point was enough to take his side through, Alfaro stuck with the defensive approach in the final group game against Australia. Again, the approach was vindicated in a way. A goalless draw with the Socceroos saw Paraguay through in third place from Group D to set up this tie with Germany.

Germany team news

The big question for Germany has been a pertinent on for a few years now. The matter of who starts up top for die Mannschaft has always been a talking point, but Kai Havertz is under particular pressure from Deniz Undav. The Stuttgart striker scored both goals in the comeback win over Ivory Coast and now has three goals and two assists to his name, despite playing just 86 minutes at the tournament so far.

Defensively, there are further issues. Nico Schlotterbeck, who scored in that win over Curacao, will miss the rest of the tournament through injury and Nathaniel Brown faces a race against time to return to fitness. Elsewhere, Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz will be expected to support whoever players as striker. Felix Nmecha and Aleksandar Pavlovic appears to be the first-choice midfield pairing.

Paraguay team news

Paraguay will be able to welcome back one of their key attacking outlets as Miguel Almiron returns from the one-game suspension he served in the draw with Australia after his controversial red card against Turkey. However, another of their more creative players will miss out as Diego Gomez picked up a second yellow card of the tournament in that draw with the Socceroos.

Gustavo Alfaro shifted to a back five to secure that much-needed point last time out, but with Sunderland defender Omar Alderete a doubt after being withdrawn with a knock against Australia, his hand may be forced into returning to four at the back.

Head-to-Head

This is the third ever meeting between these two teams and the second at the World Cup. The only previous competitive meeting came in the first knock-out round of the 2002 tournament, where Oliver Neuville’s late goal secured a 1-0 victory for the Europeans. The only other meeting was a 2013 friendly which finished 3-3.

  • 15 June 2002 – Germany 1-0 Paraguay – World Cup
  • 14 August 2013 – Germany 3-3 Paraguay – International Friendly

Can Paraguay continue defensive form or will German class shine through?

Germany are expected to win this game with ease, but they will be aware of how good Paraguay were defensively in shutting out Turkey and Australia in their last two matches.

Don’t expect a particularly high-scoring game. Even with Miguel Almiron back, this Paraguay outfit lacks real creativity and goalscoring ability. Germany are yet to keep a clean sheet at the tournament but we’re backing that to change here. We’re tipping Nagelsmann’s men for a win to nil at 21/20 with Betfred.

Florian Wirtz disappointed somewhat in the Premier League in terms of goals and assists this season, ending with just three assists to his name for Liverpool. However, he has already laid on two goals at this tournament against Curacao and Ecuador. Against another team with a deep defensive line, his lock-picking ability will be key here. That’s why we’re on a Wirtz assist at 9/4 with bet365.

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