Derby County Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic Derby County Charlton AthleticPlayer stats will appear once the competition begins.
Charlton Athletic- Kayne Ramsay
- Charlie Kelman
- Josh Edwards
Derby County- Matt Clarke
- Derry John Murkin
- Patrick Agyemang
- Rhian Brewster
Previous lineup is not available.
Charlton Athletic vs Derby County is one of the harder games to call on Saturday’s 3pm slate, with the bookmakers unable to separate the two at The Valley.
Charlton’s home advantage offsets Derby’s higher finish and strong recent record in the fixture, leaving a genuine coin-flip. Andy Francis picks through the best bets, our score prediction and the head-to-head record below.
Premium Tips
Andy expects a cagey, low-scoring affair, with the market split down the middle and both sides likely to prioritise not losing.
| Premium Tip | Odds | Why we’re backing it |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Match Goals and Derby Win By Exactly 1 Goal | 6/1 | Over 2.5 goals with Derby to win by exactly one has a clear 2-1 pathway. That exact combination landed at The Valley in January, when Derby led 2-0 before Charlton replied. Charlton began the new campaign by scoring three first-half goals in a 3-1 win at Cheltenham. Derby averaged 1.6 away goals last season but conceded 1.39 on the road , supporting goals at both ends and a narrow margin. |
| Carlton Morris Over 3.5 shots | 3/1 | Carlton Morris over 3.5 shots is a higher-volume play with a clear route through Derby’s central striker. Morris confirmed his fitness by completing the cup tie against Lincoln and registered three attempts, including two from central positions, one blocked and one narrowly wide. He needs only one more attempt to cover this line. Last season, he was Derby’s leading Championship scorer with 12 goals, producing 0.51 goals and 0.47 expected goals per 90. Those numbers reflect a forward who consistently works into valuable shooting areas. Morris is expected to continue as Derby’s focal point at Charlton, and a competitive away game should keep him involved in the final third throughout. |
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware — gambleaware.org · Odds correct at time of publishing.
How Charlton Athletic go into the game
Charlton were among the division’s lower scorers last season, finishing 19th on 53 points, but they were competitive and hard to break down on their day. The Valley remains a lively backdrop and the hosts will target a positive start.
Patrick Agyemang and Charlie Kelman offer the main goal threat, though goals were at a premium last term. Making home advantage count against a side that has enjoyed recent success over them is the challenge.
How Derby County go into the game
Derby had a strong 2025-26, finishing eighth on 69 points and showing they belong in the upper reaches of the division. They travel with confidence, not least because of an excellent recent record against Charlton.
The Rams have won four of the last five meetings between the sides across both divisions, and while last season’s Championship encounters were closer, they will fancy their chances of another positive result on the road.
Charlton Athletic vs Derby County head-to-head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/26 | Charlton Athletic | 1-2 | Derby County |
| 30/09/25 | Derby County | 1-1 | Charlton Athletic |
| 27/02/24 | Derby County | 2-1 | Charlton Athletic |
| 03/02/24 | Charlton Athletic | 0-1 | Derby County |
| 18/02/23 | Derby County | 2-0 | Charlton Athletic |
Derby have dominated this fixture of late, winning four of the last five meetings across both divisions. Last season’s Championship games were closer, though, with a 2-1 Derby win at The Valley and a 1-1 draw at Pride Park.
Charlton Athletic vs Derby County predictions & betting tips
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 6/5 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Derby to make an early statement. |
| Carlton Morris anytime scorer | 9/4 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Charlton’s main threat in a fine-margins game. |
| Both teams to score | 17/20 | ⭐⭐ | Both carry just enough to find the net. |
| Derby to win | 7/4 | ⭐⭐ | The market cannot split them, and neither can we with much conviction. |
| Derby to win 2-1 | 10/1 | ⭐⭐ | Our headline scoreline for an even contest. |
Charlton Athletic vs Derby County score prediction
There is precious little between these sides but we think Derby’s quality should just see them over the line. Score prediction: Charlton Athletic 1-2 Derby County.
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