The race is on for the third and final promotion place up to the Premier League as Millwall, Southampton, Middlesbrough, and Hull battle it out in the Championship play-offs.
If one of Millwall, Middlesbrough or Hull win the play-offs, as opposed to Southampton, we could have a scenario in which two of the three promoted clubs aren’t parachute payees who had come down from the Premier League in the previous two seasons.
The Saints are the favourites based on their superior strength-in-depth, and title-winning form in the second half of the season, with only two wins in 13 under Will Still at the start of it holding them back from automatic promotion.
But the Lions have excellent defensive resolve to bring to the conversation, Boro create chances at a rate of knots, and Hull have that clinical edge/lucky charm – you decide!
So, who will come out on top in the semi-finals to earn a place at Wembley? Let’s take a look.
Latest Championship promotion odds
| Club | bet365 Odds |
|---|---|
| Southampton | 15/8 |
| Middlesbrough | 9/4 |
| Millwall | 5/2 |
| Hull | 13/2 |
| Odds correct as of 07/05/2026, courtesy of bet365 |
Hull vs Millwall
The clash of the underdogs. Hull went into this season off the back of a 21st-placed finish the year before, and a transfer ban that made them relegation favourites, and somehow managed to attain a top-six finish.
Millwall, on the other hand, have punched above their weight at this level since coming up in 2017, and have managed to launch an automatic promotion challenge without major investment, thanks to excellent management from Alex Neil.
While the South Londoners are perhaps a touch better value for their play-off spot on performances than their Humberside counterparts, the intriguing aspect of this semi-final is that both are counter-attacking sides, averaging 46% and 47% possession respectively.
Hull’s attack is marginally more clinical than their hosts, with a quartet of Mohamed Belloumi, Joe Gelhardt, Liam Millar and Oli McBurnie capable of carving opponents open in five or six moments in a game.
Millwall, meanwhile, have individuals capable of brilliance in Femi Azeez and Camiel Neghli, but they don’t have a striker racking up the big numbers.
Mihailo Ivanovic and Josh Coburn only have nine apiece, with defenders Jake Cooper, Tristan Crama and Caleb Taylor contributing a significant portion of their attacking output from Neghli’s set-pieces.
However, Hull’s defence is incomparable. They’ve conceded the most goals of the four, 66, by quite some distance, and that’s with an xGA that suggests they should have shipped another 18 goals on performance.
Regan Slater dominated the Player of the Year awards but he’s felt like a one-man midfield at times, in front of a defence that can be unreliable with either an error-prone Semi Ajayi or a half-fit Charlie Hughes partnering John Egan.
Millwall are 2/5 favourites to reach the final. The 71.4% implied probability is flattering to Alex Neil’s side, given anything can happen across two games against a side that scored more goals than them across a league campaign.
The price is too short to represent genuine value, but it’s difficult to make a compelling case for Hull. The 11/8 on Millwall to win the first-leg holds a bit more appeal.
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Middlesbrough vs Southampton
With Southampton being 15/8 favourites to win the play-offs, and Middlesbrough close behind at 9/4, there could be a high likelihood that the play-off winner comes from this semi-final.
On the one hand, you have a Boro side – 21/20 to reach Wembley – who are a chance creation machine, with the solidity that Rob Edwards imposed added to by some lovely attacking patterns and artificial transitions under Kim Hellberg.
They’ve not always found that ruthless edge though, with Tommy Conway and David Strelec proving likeably industrious with good link-up play, but also wasteful.
They have, however, welcomed withdrawn forward Morgan Whittaker back to the fold, and it coincided with back-to-back wins, including a 5-1 final day thrashing of Watford, so they’re hoping they’ve found their range at the perfect time.
Star midfielder Hayden Hackney is progressing well, too, and could play a part alongside Aidan Morris, who has enjoyed an excellent campaign in his own right.
Yet given that Hackney’s only just coming back, and hasn’t been able to ease his way in across the final league games, the timing isn’t ideal – and look who the Teessiders are playing.
Southampton have been in impeccable form since January, with the likes of Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Shea Charles, Leo Scienza, and Cyle Larin showing their class, along with some Championship reliables like Ryan Manning, Tom Fellows, and Finn Azaz.
They have a really strong right side, with Fellows offering a traditional directness in how he attacks the flank, but they use his strengths to good effect in recycling the ball centrally sometimes, and at other times, creating space for shooting opportunities from the left.
The Saints look superbly coached under Tonda Eckert, and have played some sumptuous football since the German was joined in the dugout by Ben Garner in January.
It’s easy to see why the south coast outfit are 7/10 to qualify, and if they can avoid defeat in the first-leg they should finish the mission at St Mary’s.
The price might be a bit short, but sometimes class tells.
Verdict
For the record, Southampton are not only my pick to win the play-offs, but i’d also be prepared to back them at 2/1 – the price isn’t brilliant, but sometimes it’s as simple as backing the quickest horse to win the race.
