The Championship is all set for a nerve-jangling conclusion on Saturday when we will discover who will join champions Coventry City in the automatic promotion spots, and which three clubs will join Southampton in the play-offs.
Before we run through the race for 2nd and the battle to make the play-offs, here’s a quick glance at how things stand in the Championship table:
Who will finish in the top-2?
Heading into the final day of the season there are three clubs still in the mix for a top-2 finish and thus automatic promotion up to the Premier League: Ipswich Town, Millwall, and Middlesbrough.
Ipswich fended off competition from Southampton to secure 2nd spot in the Championship two years ago and are once again well placed to secure an instant return to the Premier League.
Ipswich, now 1/4 in the betting for a top-2 finish, currently occupy the coveted 2nd spot on 81 points, boasting a strong goal difference of +30. Tuesday’s entertaining 2–2 draw away at Southampton not only ended the Saints’ hopes of a top-2 finish but left the Tractor Boys needing just a win at home to QPR (14th) to secure their return to the Premier League. A draw would be enough if Millwall and Middlesbrough fail to win, and they could even lose and go up if the other two fail to win.
Millwall (11/4 to finish in the top-2) are one point behind in 3rd, but with a goal difference of +13, ahead of Middlesbrough (4th) on 79 points with a goal difference of +25.
Millwall simply have to win. They will go up by taking three points at home to relegated Oxford, providing Ipswich fail to win.
Middlesbrough (40/1) have the trickiest fixture away to Wrexham (6th). They need to win and hope Ipswich lose and Millwall fail to win. However, a Boro win would be enough if Ipswich draw – and Millwall draw or lose – providing they overturn a five goal deficit on the Suffolk club.
Verdict: Ipswich to finish 2nd.
Top-2 Finish Odds – How the bookmakers see it:
Who will finish in the play-offs?
Ipswich, Millwall, Middlesbrough, and Southampton have already locked in top-6 finishes, with the Saints (5th) currently the only confirmed club in the play-offs, as the other three are battling it out for a top-2 finish, however Tonda Eckert’s side could still finish 3rd.
This leaves 6th spot up for grabs between Wrexham (6th – 70 points), Hull (7th – 70 points), and Derby (8th – 69 points).
Wrexham, who are in the mix for a fourth straight promotion, are currently in 6th thanks to a goal difference of +4, compared to Hull’s +3. They do, however, face a final day test at home to Middlesbrough, who will still have the chance to finish 2nd.
As for Hull, they have hit a slump in form at the worst possible time, going six games unbeaten. The Tigers must now pick themselves up for a tricky fixture at home to in-form Norwich, who have won eight and drawn two of their last 12 games.
Derby are a point behind the duo, but have the best goal difference (+9), and arguably have the most favourable fixture at home to Sheffield United, who are 15th and have lost their last two games.
There could be a scenario that sees all three teams end on 70 points. For this to play out, Wrexham and Hull must lose, and Derby draw, which would see the latter sneak 6th on goal difference.
Verdict: 6th spot is extremely tight to call, but Derby could prove to be the value bet at 7/2.
Top 6 Finish Odds – How the bookmakers see it:
Who plays who on the final day?
- Derby (8th) vs Sheff Utd (15th)
- Hull City (7th) vs Norwich City (9th)
- Ipswich (2nd) vs QPR (14th)
- Millwall (3rd) vs Oxford (22nd – relegated)
- Wrexham (6th) vs Middlesbrough (4th)
Finally, what do the form books say?
- Ipswich – Lost only once in their last 14 games (W7 D6) and haven’t lost at home in 16 games dating back to October.
- Millwall – Unbeaten in four games, but have lost two of their last three at home.
- Middlesbrough – Ended a run of seven winless games with back-to-back victories.
- Wrexham – Won two and lost three of last six games.
- Hull – Without a win in six games, drawing four and losing twice. One home win since late February.
- Derby – Seven wins in their last 11 games. Haven’t drawn in 16 games stretching back to 23rd January.
