Ballon d’Or 2025 odds: Mo Salah drops down to third favourite after Champions League exit
We’re still a fair few months away from the 2025 Ballon d’Or awards, but it’s already a hot topic of conversation.
As as been the case since 2022, the Ballon d’Or is now a season-based award rather than a calendar year. Rodri is the current title holder but he’s almost certainly out of the running, missing most of the 2024-25 season due to injury.
Even at this early stage we’ve seen changes in the favourites, as teams advance in certain competitions and go out of others. So, who are the favourites right now?
Find the latest 2025 Ballon d’Or odds here:
Raphinha
With Barcelona into the quarter-finals of the Champions League and top of La Liga, Raphinha has taken his spot at the top of the Ballon d’Or race right now. The Brazilian has been excellent this season, a key cog of Barcelona’s team.
Raphinha has played 36 games in the league and Champions League this season, amassing just under 3,000 minutes. He’s been directly involved in 36 goals too, at an average of 1.09 per 90 minutes.
Eleven of Raphinha’s 24 goals this season have come in the Champions League, and he’s just the second Barcelona plyer to net more than 10 goals in a single campaign in the competition. Of course, the only other man is Lionel Messi, who did so in four different campaigns. He’s also the highest-scoring Brazilian in a single Champions League season, beating the likes of Neymar, Rivaldo, Kaka and Roberto Firmino.
If he can continue his form, and lead Barcelona to glory domestically and in Europe, Raphinha could join Messi in another club.
Kylian Mbappe
The La Liga title could just as easily go Real Madrid’s way, which might see Kylian Mbappe take over as favourites — especially if they go on to win the Champions League too. Mbappe was tipped as one the players to dominate the Ballon d’Or (and world football) after Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, but he’s only made it into the top three once, finishing third in 2023.
It didn’t look like 2024-25 would be his season either, after a slow start to life at Real Madrid following his high-profile move from Paris Saint-Germain. But Mbappe has more than found his feet. The Frenchman has scored 25 goals in La Liga and the Champions League this season, adding a further four assists. He’s scored 18 goals in La Liga, with only Robert Lewandowski (21) scoring more.
Mo Salah
Mo Salah was favourite to win the Ballon d’Or not too long ago. Liverpool were favourites to win the Premier League and the Champions League. The only case people were making against Salah winning the Ballon d’Or in his career, was the fact that he’s Egyptian. But that was shut down very quickly as obvious disrespect of the Africa Cup of Nations.
However, Salah has now fallen slightly down the rankings after Liverpool’s Champions League exit. The Champions League hadn’t seen Salah at his best this season, with the Egyptian scoring three goals and providing four assists in nine games. While that doesn’t sound bad, when you compare it to his Premier League showing, it pales in comparison.
Salah leads the Premier League for both goals and assists this season, with 27 and 17 respectively. He’s already matched the record for most goal involvements in a single Premier League campaign, and has nine more games to add to his tally. With Liverpool all-but guaranteed to win the title, Salah looks set to have the PFA awards locked down. But things aren’t as certain for the Ballon d’Or.
Vinicius Jr
Back to a Spanish club, and we can start to see how important still being in the Champions League is when it comes to Ballon d’Or odds. Not that Vinicius Jr doesn’t deserve to be in the early conversations. The Brazilian has been directly involved in 24 goals in the league and Champions League this season, averaging 0.82 per 90. He’s almost been the reverse of Salah, performing better in the Champions League than La Liga.
Vinicius Jr has been directly involved in nine goals in the Champions League alone, averaging 0.87 per 90. Only three players have been directly involved in more goals in the Champions League this season than Vinicius Jr. Again, if Real Madrid go on to do the Double, he’ll fancy his chances — though there will still be some scars from his failure to win the Ballon d’Or last year.
Ousmane Dembele
Life without Mbappe is fairing pretty well for PSG, because Ousmane Dembele has stepped up to the plate. The Frenchman currently leads the scoring charts in Ligue 1 with 20 goals, at least five more than any other player. He also sits five clear of any other player in the league for direct goal involvements, on 25 in total. His per 90 numbers are very impressive too, with Dembele directly involved in 1.61 goals per 90 in Ligue 1.
It’s a similar story in the Champions League. Dembele has scored seven goals in Europe so far this season, at an average of 0.79 per 90. He was the man to score at Anfield against Liverpool, eventually taking the tie to penalties — with PSG advanced. It feels like they’re in with a decent chance of finally winning the Champions League. And if they do, Dembele will get a lot of praise.
