We’re still a few months away from the 2025 Ballon d’Or awards, but it’s already a hot topic of conversation.
As as been the case since 2022, the Ballon d’Or is now a season-based award rather than a calendar year. Rodri is the current title holder but he won’t retain his crown, missing most of the 2024-25 season due to injury.
And with the 2024-25 season almost over — with just the Club World Cup to come — there is a favourite emerging. So, who is it? And who are his closest competitors?
Find the latest 2025 Ballon d’Or odds here:
Ousmane Dembele
Life without Kylian Mbappe is faring pretty well for Paris Saint-Germain. That’s because Ousmane Dembele stepped up to the plate. The Frenchman scored 21 goals in Ligue 1, with no player netting more in the French top-flight. He sat top for goal involvements overall with 27 in general, helping PSG secure yet another league title. His numbers per 90 minutes were very impressive too, averaging 1.40 goal involvements and 3.27 chances created.
But the biggest thing was PSG finally winning the Champions League. Again Dembele was at the heart of the victory, directly involved in 14 goals across the campaign — scoring eight with six assists. He was the man to score at Anfield against Liverpool, eventually taking the tie to penalties — which PSG, of course, won. He also scored the first goal in PSG’s semi-final against Arsenal, setting them up for victory. They say the Champions League has a big influence on the Ballon d’Or, so Dembele is understandably the odds-on favourite.
Lamine Yamal
But what if winning the Champions League suddenly isn’t the be-all and end-all? Well then attention turns to Lamine Yamal. The teenage superstar has been just that this season. A superstar. He was directly involved in 22 goals in La Liga as Barcelona wrestled their crown back from Real Madrid. Yamal scored nine goals and provided 13 assists, the latter the most in La Liga. He also averaged 2.01 chances created per 90 and 5.06 completed take-ons.
In the Champions League, Yamal reached the semi-finals with Barcelona, losing to Inter Milan. But he still scored five goals and provided three assists along the way, with Barcelona one of the strongest teams across the campaign. Then Yamal helped Spain reach the Uefa Nations League Final, though they lost to Portugal.
Vitinha
Back to a Champions League winner, Vitinha has climbed the rankings recently. He was named man-of-the-match in the Champions League final, dominating the midfield battle against Inter Milan. There’s a touch of Rodri about Vitinha’s chances, which could go either way. Vitinha also has the benefit of having won the Nations League with Portugal.
Mo Salah
Mo Salah was favourite to win the Ballon d’Or not too long ago. Liverpool were favourites to win the Premier League and the Champions League. The only case people were making against Salah winning the Ballon d’Or in his career, was the fact that he’s Egyptian. But that was shut down very quickly as obvious disrespect of the Africa Cup of Nations.
However, Salah fell down the rankings after Liverpool exited the Champions League — leaving them with just the Premier League. The Champions League hadn’t seen Salah at his best this season, with the Egyptian scoring three goals and providing four assists in nine games. While that doesn’t sound bad, when you compare it to his Premier League showing, it pales in comparison.
Salah won both the Golden Boot and Playmaker Award in the Premier League, and matched the record for most goal involvements in a single campaign in the competition.
Raphinha
With Barcelona securing the La Liga title and making it to the semi-finals of the Champions League this season, Raphinha took his spot in fifth for the Ballon d’Or race right now. The Brazilian was excellent in 2024-25, a key cog of Barcelona’s team.
Raphinha played 50 games in the league and Champions League, amassing just over 4,000 minutes. He was directly involved 48 goals too (in just the league and Champions League), averaging 0.69 goals per 90 and 0.38 assists per 90.
Thirteen of those 31 goals came in the Champions League, and Raphinha is just the second Barcelona player to net more than 10 goals in a single campaign in the competition. Of course, the only other man is Lionel Messi, who did so in four different campaigns. He’s also the highest-scoring Brazilian in a single Champions League season, beating the likes of Neymar, Rivaldo, Kaka and Roberto Firmino.