Preston North End took a gamble with an early managerial change but it has backfired so far.
Paul Heckingbottom got the sack not just for the poor start to the current Championship campaign. The Lilywhites had already endured a meltdown in the second half of last season.
Everton recalling Harrison Armstrong from his loan provided a blow from which they never recovered. It was all downhill from January onwards – and the trend continued in 2026/27.
Preston lost six of their first seven league games, a run that led to Heckingbottom’s dismissal. But it’s fair to say things haven’t exactly gotten better since then.
The first signs under interim manager Jason Euell were very positive. They were already 2-0 up in 26 minutes against a 10-man Queens Park Rangers side at Loftus Road. And yet, the Rs still managed to find a way back into the game with two second-half goals to snatch a draw.
And they did earn their first point under new boss Graham Alexander recently, a 1-1 home draw against West Bromwich Albion. But in terms of performances, the two permanent head coaches have delivered very different versions of the Lilywhites.
What do the numbers say about Preston North End under Heckingbottom and Alexander?
Polar opposites
Just over a month ago, Squawka wrote that sacking Paul Heckingbottom could be a dangerous move. There were good Championship-level managers available at the time, like Carlos Corberan, Steve Cooper, Rob Edwards and Gary Rowett.
- READ MORE: Why Preston North End are one of the most intriguing sides in the Championship this season
Though the current squad and overall situation at Deepdale wouldn’t be enough to convince them to take on a tough mission.
Instead, they went from a manager who won promotion from the second tier and tested himself in the Premier League as recently as 2023 and hired one who had not had any job above League One.
Alexander had a wonderful spell at Bradford City, but the Championship is a different beast. And the numbers show that.
All the main metrics have fallen off a cliff since Preston changed managers.
| Preston stats (per game) | Under Heckingbottom | Under Alexander |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | 44% | 35% |
| Goals scored | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Expected goals against | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Shots | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Shots faced | 13.4 | 16.8 |
| Big chances | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Big chances faced | 2.0 | 3.0 |
Preston have had fewer big chances and also expected goals in each of their four matches under Alexander. That was only the case once under Heckingbottom in terms of big chances (vs Wolverhampton Wanderers) and twice in expected goals (vs Wolves and Lincoln City).
Not to mention they have conceded 4 goals twice under Alexander, something that happened just once across Heckingbottom’s entire spell at Deepdale in the Championship (93 matches).
And that’s all with roughly the same group of players available for selection. Harry Clarke‘s injury does hurt Alexander, since he was one of their most solid performers under Heckingbottom. Other than that, though, it’s still the same squad.
Were Preston North End really that bad?
The numbers mentioned above makes us think. Sure, Preston won just 14% of the points in the Championship under Heckingbottom this season – but under Alexander it’s even worse (8%). The main issue here is the poor, League One-level squad.
And even then, Heckingbottom still managed to at least deliver decent performances despite all the shortcomings.
For perspective, Opta’s expected points model had them 9th in their so-called ‘justice table’, as opposed to 23rd in real life, by the time Heckingbottom was sacked. It was the greatest disparity in expected position and actual position of any team in the division at that moment. 10.9 expected points compared to just three actual points won.
Graham Alexander still has the upside of being a club legend and having had relative success in League One with Bradford City, which is where Preston will likely be playing next season.
There is hope, not only from the board but also the fans, that Alexander’s presence alone may lift the spirits a little bit and make the environment better.
It’s still October and there is time for that to happen, though the signs so far have not been positive whatsoever. Which, again, speaks more of Preston’s squad than any manager’s ability. But maybe the form under Heckingbottom was as good as it could have been for the Lilywhites.