“I look forward to that next week.” Eddie Howe was forthright ahead of talks between himself and the Newcastle owners.
In truth, it’s a scheduled meeting he should be dreading. Howe’s job, after all, is very much on the line. The Magpies are enduring a sub-par campaign, and then some. 14th in the table, Newcastle are not in danger of relegation. A late season flurry could well see them secure a European finish.
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Judging by the form guide, however, Newcastle will finish the season with a whimper rather than a bang. Howe takes his Newcastle side to London on Saturday evening with a view to ending their four-game losing streak at title contenders Arsenal. Said run includes a 7-2 defeat to Barcelona and a 2-1 reverse to rivals Sunderland.
Narrow defeats to Crystal Palace and Bournemouth following the international break have hardly helped his cause. It’s the culmination of what had been a testing season for the club. The issues stem from last summer’s transfer window.
Summer window didn’t help Newcastle
Alexander Isak finished last season with 23 goals and six assists to his name. The Swede was a wanted man, and rightly so. Newcastle, though, were steadfast in their desire to retain his services. After all, Champions League football was back on the cards. They wanted to keep their talisman.
Isak, though, had other ideas. Liverpool were linked with the 26-year-old, and the striker made no secret of his desire to swap St. James’ Park for Anfield. Isak ultimately got his move having gone on strike to force the switch. Liverpool coughed up a British record £125m to land the Sweden international.
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Newcastle themselves spent the Isak money on Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, the pair joining from VfB Stuttgart and Brentford, respectively. Anthony Elanga also arrived to ease the burden on wingers Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes. While Isak’s departure was a blow, it was better for all parties that the deal be done and everyone could move on.
New arrival struggles
Howe’s side, however, were struck by a stroke of misfortune. Wissa sustained a knee injury on international duty with DR Congo in September. He wouldn’t make his debut until early December. Woltemade started brightly but has gone off the boil. Four of the German’s seven league goals came in the first five games following his arrival.
Elanga, meanwhile, has failed to live up to last season’s performance levels. A £55m arrival from Nottingham Forest, Newcastle have every right to have expected a better return than one assist and no goals in 29 league appearances. Regardless, after such a hefty outlay, even taking until account the nine-figure sum received from the Isak sale, the club will have wanted more following significant investment.
And that lies with Howe. It wouldn’t be the first time a Howe side has stagnated. The manager himself has previously admitted that he stayed at former side Bournemouth a season too long after they were relegated in the 2019-20 season. The Cherries that campaign dropped 17 points from winning positions, the fifth most in England’s top tier.
This season, Howe’s Newcastle side have managed to outdo that Bournemouth side, giving up 25 points from winning positions. They scored the first goal in seven of their 15 league defeats this season. The Magpies have shipped 30 goals after scoring first, a record in the Premier League this season. What’s concerning is that the most recent – the 2-1 reverse at Palace – came after a three-week break. This was supposed to be the reset required to end the campaign well.
Guimaraes absence has hurt Magpies
Rather, Newcastle followed up that defeat with the aforementioned home loss to Howe’s former side Bournemouth. They travel to the Emirates having lost eight of their last 11 league outings. Of course, the absence of captain Bruno Guimaraes hasn’t helped matters.
The Brazilian only returned to action as a second half substitute in last week’s loss to Bournemouth. It marked his first appearance since the 2-1 win at Tottenham back in February. Having your best players fit is a boost for any team, regardless. Even so, Newcastle’s win ratio drops from 45.5% to just 18.2% when the midfielder doesn’t start.
They’ve lost just eight of 22 games with Guimaraes starting, and seven of the 11 he hasn’t. Goals scored per game dips from 1.55 to 1.09 without him. Goals conceded per game increases from 1.32 to 1.82. He’s absolutely vital to the way Newcastle play, and his return to fitness could not have been better timed.
Conversely, relying on the availability of one player is not sustainable. That, though, is on Howe to have formulated a system that lessened the burden on Guimaraes to be fit for the duration of the campaign.
Arsenal visit the ideal chance to bounce back
Fortunately for Newcastle, they face a downtrodden Arsenal at a good time. The Gunners play the first leg of the Champions League semi-final showdown with Atletico Madrid next week and welcome the Magpies on a run of four defeats in their last six. The north London have a good record against Newcastle, while Howe has lost 13 times to Arsenal in his managerial career, his third most.
With Guimaraes back in the team, they stand a much stronger chance of claiming a result. They certainly need one right now as Newcastle look to see out a sub-par season on a high note. Howe, meanwhile, will only face growing calls to leave should they fall to a fifth successive loss this weekend.