Aston Villa are still waiting on their first goal of the 2025-26 Premier League season.
The Villans have blanked in their three matches so far, just the second time they have suffered such a feat in their history. The only previous occasions came in 1997-98, when their run stopped at three matches.
To make matters worse, Aston Villa are the only side in the top four leagues of English football without a goal this season. The question is, why are they struggling?
In this article, we’ll cover:
What’s changed from last season?
Aston Villa’s system hasn’t really changed from last season. But there is an interesting lack of connection, and two telling differences.
The first is the position of the striker. He has been more isolated in the opening three games this season, with a bigger gap to his closest teammate. Although he is closer to the opposition box, that’s no good if he isn’t getting the service.
Then there’s the position of the No.10. While the gap to the striker is smaller than it was last season, he is playing more of a supportive role directly behind the front man. Last season, the No.10 was filling the gap between the striker and the right-winger — almost appearing as a (slightly deeper) second striker. With the narrower No.10, Aston Villa don’t have the strike support they need.
Villa have experienced a slight drop in their shot numbers this season. Last season the Villans averaged 12.74 shots per 90 minutes in the Premier League. That wasn’t exactly good, ranking 12th in the division — but it’s better than it is in 2025-26. Across their three games this season, Villa have averaged 11 shots per 90.
They are less accurate with their shots too. Villa have averaged 3 shots on target per 90 this season compared to 4.47 last season. They’ve averaged 5 shots off target, up slightly from their 4.74 last season.
Villa are also creating fewer chances as a whole. Their players averaged 9.53 chances created in the Premier League last season, with 2.37 of those being big changes. The Villans ranked fifth for big chances created per 90. This season, Villa have averaged 8.33 chances created per 90, with just 1 big chance per 90.
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Poor finishing
Let’s look a little deeper into Aston Villa’s shot accuracy. Or, more specifically, their shot placement.
Villa averaged 1.56 Expected Goals per 90 in the Premier League last season. Again, it was around average in the division, with 10 teams faring better. But it wasn’t the worst. Villa also ranked 11th for post-shot xG, which focuses on the placement of a shot known to be on target.
There was a slight dip to 1.48 post-shot xG, but it was only a decrease of 0.08. That’s manageable. And in totals, they only underperformed against their xG by 1.3, scoring 58 from 59.3. There was an improvement of 1.79 from their post-shot xG to total goals scored.
This season, Villa sit bottom. They have the worst xG per 90 in the Premier League, averaging just 0.95. That’s despite sitting 11th for shots overall.
So from the off, Aston Villa are taking a lot of their shots from positions they’re not likely to score from. Villa have taken 33 shots in the Premier League this season, but only 10 have come with an xG of at least 0.10. That’s 30.3%. Only Newcastle United (29.41%) and Sunderland (25.81%) have had a lower percentage of their total shots have an xG of at least 0.10. The average of the league this season is around 39.22%.
Aston Villa also sit bottom of the league for post-shot xG per 90 this season, which stands at 0.49. That’s a drop off of 0.46 from their xG (0.95), which is a big problem. Villa have only had four of their 33 shots register a post-shot xG of at least 0.1 — for 12.12%. Again, Villa sit among the worst in the league with only Leeds United (11.76%) faring worse. The league average for percentage of shots with at least 0.10 post-shot xG is 22.62%.
The worst culprits
A lot of the focus surrounding Villa’s failures in front of goal this season has been on Ollie Watkins. After all, he’s their star striker. But is it fair?
Of the aforementioned 10 shots with at least 0.10 xG, only three have also registered a post-shot xG. Three missed the target, while four more would have been blocked. Watkins is responsible for the biggest drop in xG to post-shot xG for a single shot. His 81st-minute effort against Brentford against Brentford came with an xG of 0.30. But he failed to hit the target.
Watkins is responsible for six of Villa’s 24 shots that did not register a post-shot xG. That’s the most of any Aston Villa player. But four of Youri Tielemans’ shots have not registered a post-shot xG, and Emi Buendia is responsible for three such occasions.
But Watkins has also been denied by a goalkeeper, with the biggest drop for a single shot while still recording a post-shot xG. An effort in the 41st minute against Crystal Palace brought an xG of 0.38 and post-shot G of 0.26 — that’s the second-highest post-shot xG for a Villa shot this season. But his effort was saved.
It feels like a goal will come very soon for Villa. But they need to be more selective with their shots, making sure they actually have an opportunity to score.