Sweden’s qualification for the World Cup begs the question — has a country ever done so little to gain so much in recent football history?
Viktor Gyokeres was once again the hero on Tuesday night, following on from his hat-trick against Ukraine with a late winner against Poland in Stockholm. It sealed passage to this summer’s tournament but that is the only the final chapter of a rather bizarre story.
In this article we’ll cover:
No wins but a playoff spot?
When the Swedes were drawn into a qualifying group with Switzerland, Slovenia and Kosovo, conventional wisdom suggested they’d battle for top spot. Or at the very least make it to the playoffs via a second-placed finish.
Not quite. Just two points were accrued from six games with draws against Slovenia coming amid heavy losses to the Swiss and a surprise double defeat by Kosovo.
Given the quality in the Swedish ranks, notably Alexander Isak, Gyokeres, Lucas Bergvall and Anthony Elanaga, this was rightly deemed completely unacceptable.
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Danish legend Jon Dahl Tomasson was an odd managerial choice to start with and he was dismissed with two qualification games remaining.
Graham Potter was parachuted in just months on from his sacking by West Ham. A somewhat surprise appointment. At least at first.
His connection with the country from his early years with minnows Ostersund was the deciding factor for both Potter and the Swedish Football Association.
A 4-1 defeat to the Switzerland and home draw with Slovenia hardly inspired confidence but a seemingly short-term gig turned into a long-term project with a four-year contract.
Four year-plan falls into place?
Logic indicated Potter’s attention would turn to September and the new Nations League campaign. But logic and modern football don’t go together. And Sweden’s last Nations League campaign saw them slip into the playoffs via the biggest of backdoors.
This part of the story goes back to 2022 when Janne Andersson’s side finished bottom of Group B4, picking up just four points against Serbia, Slovenia and neighbours Norway.
That saw them relegated to Group C for the 2024 edition, where they topped a group featuring the might of Azerbaijan and Estonia, as well as the Slovenians once more.
Isak’s winner against Slovenia at the brilliantly named Strawberry Arena in Solna sealed top spot and a return to Group B for the 2026/27 campaign. And, little did they know, their route to the World Cup.
The Nations League backdoor to the playoffs has had its upsides, namely Georgia’s maiden tournament qualification at EURO 2024 but Sweden’s route is pushing it to say the least.
How have they been rewarded for two bottom-placed group finishes and topping a group of relative minnows? This is a country who had qualified for 12 previous World Cups after all.
Romania, North Macedonia and Northern Ireland also made it to the playoffs via the backdoor but at least they made a fist of qualification with the first two earning 13 points and Michael O’Neill’s men nine.
| Country | Fewest points in UEFA qualification |
| San Marino | 0 |
| Liechtenstein | 0 |
| Gibralter | 0 |
| Luxembourg | 0 |
| Azerbaijan | 1 |
| Moldova | 1 |
| Andorra | 1 |
| Sweden | 2 |
| Belarus | 2 |
| Armenia | 3 |
| Bulgaria | 3 |
| Lithuania | 3 |
| Estonia | 3 |
On the other hand, the Swedes had more points than just seven of the other 54 UEFA nations. And fewer than fellow bottom-placed sides Armenia, Belarus and Lithuania.
Can the Swedes continue to make their luck count?
The lack of any seeding in the playoff draw was the next thing to go in their favour.
An “away” semi-final to Ukraine took place in Valencia due to Russia’s ongoing illegal invasion of the country. There were more Swedes than Ukrainians in the stands as Gyokeres led the way in a 3-1 win.
This paved the way for a home final against the Poles, who had earned just the 15 more points than Sweden in qualification.
Don’t mix it up though, huge credit must go to Potter for turning around a failing national team especially without the country’s two best players in Isak and Dejan Kulusevski (who looks set to miss out this summer). The Swedes also can’t be blamed for taking their chance.
Instead, blame lies with the usual suspects at UEFA and FIFA where questions need asking about the entire qualification process. From Nations League backdoors to the lack of neutral venue one-off playoffs.
Not that Sweden will care right now as they look forward to a return to the World Cup after missing out in 2022.
A group with the Netherlands, Japan and Tunisia is not easy but who knows where this stranger than fiction story will go next? They finished third on their last trip Stateside in 1994 didn’t they?