Spain are among the favourites to win the 2026 World Cup.
Their odds have dropped since the start of the tournament, due to a combination of things. Their own struggles in front of goal, as well as the performances of France and Argentina among others.
Spain booked their spot in the knockout stages of the World Cup with five goals in three games. But four of those came in a win over Saudi Arabia. La Roja only scored one to beat Uruguay and drew a blank in their opener against Cape Verde.
But maybe we shouldn’t be focusing on the attack.
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Spain’s excellent defence
Limiting opportunities
Spain are the most possession-heavy team at the World Cup this summer. They’ve averaged 69.43% possession across their three games so far, more than any other side. While this is seen as a way of controlling the game — and their attack — it has its defensive benefits. A team cannot hurt Spain if they cannot get the ball.
And that has certainly been the case so far. Spain have faced just 14 shots at the 2026 World Cup, fewer than any other side. Only Argentina (two) have faced few shots on target than La Roja‘s three.
But Spain are also unrivalled for their 0.73 Expected Goals conceded at the World Cup. Opponents aren’t testing Spain when they do manage to get a shot away. Unai Simon has been relatively unworked, making just three saves in his three matches. And they’ve been split into one per game.
Uruguay had the best opportunities with 0.33 xG, though they didn’t make the most of them. Their 0.07 post-shot xG is the lowest Spain has faced. It’s no coincidence, though, that Uruguay had the most possession of any of Spain’s opponents so far, at 33.1%. And only 0.04 of their xG against Spain came from set-pieces.
It was the reverse for Cape Verde. Although they only had 25.7% possession, Cape Verde registered 0.31 xG against Spain. But 0.19 came from set-pieces, and 0.13 of that came with an effort in the dying stages forcing a save. Outside of that, Spain and Simon weren’t tested at all.
Defending on the front foot
Spain’s high possession, and low xGC numbers, aren’t just based around them starting moves themselves. Luis de la Fuenta has his side pressing high up the pitch, with a lot of success.
A high turnover is defined as when a team wins possession, in open play, within 40 metres of the opposition goal. Spain have averaged 7.67 high turnovers per game at the World Cup this summer, more than any other side. They also rank second for their 7.33 possessions won in the attacking third per game, behind only Uruguay (7.67).
When Spain’s attacking line has been breached, the midfield have been there to protect the defence. Spain rank fourth at the World Cup for possessions won in the middle third per game, at 22. Of course, their number is slightly lower than teams around them because they are so good at winning the ball back higher up the pitch.
It’s the same reason they only average 15 possessions won in the defensive third per game. Opponents just aren’t getting that high up the pitch. Spain are the only team at the World Cup this summer to have faced less than 100 sequences ending in their own final third, with 93. That has worked out to 23.54% of all of their opponents’ sequences, which is the second-best at the World Cup.
Spain aren’t just restricting their opponents’ possession. They’re also stopping them from having any meaningful time on the ball. La Roja‘s opponents have averaged just six sequences with at least 10 passes per game at the World Cup this season, the fourth-best record in the competition. Everything De la Fuente has set up, is working to perfection so far.
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Integral personnel
Of course, De la Fuente’s gameplan wouldn’t work if the players on the pitch weren’t capable of doing their job. But they are. De le Fuente has his defensive core both in the backline and the midfield. Marc Cucurella, Pau Cubarsi, Aymeric Laporte, Rodri and Pedri have all started every game for Spain at the World Cup so far. Marcos Llorente has started two at right-back, with the other midfield spot rotated.
The midfield partnership of Rodri and Pedri have worked perfectly so far. Rodri leads Spain with his eight tackles at the World Cup, while Pedri sits joint-top among the squad for seven interceptions. Pedri has been the all-action midfielder, with seven possessions won in the attacking third, and five apiece in both the middle and defensive thirds. His roaming role– both on and off the ball — allows Rodri to sit in stay in his position, winning possession 11 times in the middle third.
Pau Cubarsi has been the busiest of the defenders. He has won possession eight times in the defensive third, and eight times in the middle third. The former is the most of any outfield player, while he ranks second behind Rodri for the latter. Cubarsi has also made nine clearances, but he’s outshone there by partner Aymeric Laporte (15).
De le Fuente has used the right-back more in a defensive role too. Marcos Llorente has won five tackles at the tournament, with Pedro Porro on three. And the latter has only played one game. Overall, the system works. And Spain can certainly count themselves as World Cup contenders if they keep their defence strong.
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