Chelsea travel to Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday for the first leg of their Champions League knockout clash, but recent trends may leave the Blues feeling more confident than expected.
On paper, this is about as unenviable a clash as you could hope for at this stage of European football’s leading competition. The current holders and last season’s treble winners, who spent the campaign decimating pretty much everything before them.
However, all is not quite as well as it seems at the Parc des Princes, and there are a few gaps in PSG’s armour that have made themselves apparent this season — offering Chelsea hope of unexpected progression into the quarter-finals.
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Injuries rob PSG of attacking dynamism
The most obvious drop-off is in the dynamism of PSG’s attack, and the subsequent fall in quality of the chances they’re creating.
In last season’s Champions League and Ligue 1 combined, PSG were operating at 22.67 take-ons attempted and 11.12 completed per match, compared to 20.51 and 9.89 this campaign. And while their chances created per match has gone up from 15.31 per match to 15.83, their big chances created has dropped from 3.82 to 3.06.
One of the major causes of this regression is undoubtedly Ousmane Dembele’s lack of availability. The Frenchman was a force of nature last season, registering 33 goals and 15 assists in 49 appearances across all competitions to fire the Parisians to untold glory, while picking up the much-coveted Ballon d’Or award.
Unfortunately, his 2025/26 campaign so far has been disrupted by various hamstring and calf injuries. Dembele has still managed 11 goals and seven assists in all competitions, but 12 of those goal involvements have come in Ligue 1 and only two in the Champions League. Right when he’s looked to be hitting form, Dembele has been taken down by another injury, utterly destroying his rhythm and consistency — not to mention the explosive nature of his game.
Indeed, Dembele’s take-ons per 90 minutes have nosedived from 4.41/2.05 attempted/completed to 2.91/1.64, and this has made a noticeable impact on the approach of Luis Enrique’s side.
Desire Doue also spent time on the sidelines earlier this season, with his function in the forward line just as critical, but so similar to Dembele’s.
Equally, Fabian Ruiz has fallen prey recently to a knee injury, while Joao Neves has been taken down by various hamstring, muscle and ankle problems. The midfield duo were vital cogs in last year’s PSG machine, with the former acting as a powerhouse runner and the latter an intricate passer, and the two combining and sacrificing to allow Vitinha to dictate games.
Fatigue affecting defensive intensity
There are several defensive problems to consider for PSG, too.
Indeed, almost all of their key metrics at the back have dropped. Whether it’s their tackles per game going from 18.73 to 15.37, their interceptions going from 8.04 to 7.31, or their possessions won outside the attacking third going from 43.51 to 40.15, PSG simply aren’t defending with the same intensity as they were last season.
PSG have not been helped by the departure of Gianluigi Donnarumma to Manchester City, with new goalkeeper Lucas Chevalier having to adjust to the bright Paris lights in his place. What’s more, Ilya Zabarnyi was an expensive addition to their defence from Bournemouth and has needed time to settle.
The lack of defensive rigour and injuries suffered to key players can likely be tied to the same cause: Fatigue.
To win a treble, you have to play a lot of games. And even since that achievement, they went all the way to the final of the Club World Cup before losing to Chelsea, while they also had the Fifa Intercontinental Cup, the Uefa Super Cup and the Trophee des Champions to contend with at the beginning of this campaign.
That takes its toll not only in the form of injuries, but also in how much effort can be expended without the ball by those players still fit, and how dynamic the forwards can be with it at the other end.
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Luis Enrique looks to rugby for PSG solutions
Luis Enrique is not blind to the above problems, but he’s also realistic about what happens to the competition when a team wins a treble: they adapt.
Indeed, PSG have already lost four Ligue 1 games this season — most recently 3-1 at home to Monaco on Friday — which is double the amount they suffered in 2024/25. In the Champions League, meanwhile, they’ve jerked from unplayable to unwatchable, beating Atalanta 4-0 and Bayer Leverkusen 7-2 one moment, and losing 2-1 to Sporting CP and drawing 1-1 at home to Newcastle the next.
Enrique has started the unusual habit this season of watching the first half of matches from the stands — something not seen in the Premier League since the days of Sam Allardyce at Bolton Wanderers, and a trend more common in rugby — in a bid to get a better grasp on the positional defects in PSG’s game.
Even as early as the summer, the Spaniard saw this coming.
“In football, nothing is magical; it doesn’t work,” he said. “When you overcome pressure in a certain way, the opponent adapts. When you create superiority in a position, the opponent adapts… So either you adapt, improvise, and stop being predictable for the opponent, or you’re dead. What we did last season isn’t valid for next season.”
Can Chelsea make the most of PSG mortality?
This isn’t a crisis for PSG. They’re still top of Ligue 1 and favourites to win this Champions League tie and continue the defence of their title.
However, they’re not the all-conquering machine they were last year when they sealed the first treble in French history. There are flaws there to be exploited by Chelsea and a mortality to their game that manager Enrique is only too aware of.
Now, it’s up to Liam Rosenior to forge a plan to exploit these weaknesses and cover up the numerous glaring imperfections in his own side’s game.