The Premier League returns after Christmas, with gameweek 18 taking place across December 26-28. Manchester United and Newcastle will play the only top-flight fixture on Boxing Day, before a seven-game slate on Saturday 27 December and two on Sunday 28. Find our predictions for each game below.
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Man Utd vs Newcastle – Friday 26 December, 8:00pm
The data strongly supports a high scoring contest here. Manchester United (31 GF, 28 GA) and Newcastle (23 GF, 22 GA) have played 17 Premier League games each. This results in a combined total of 104 goals (54 GF, 50 GA) across 34 matches, averaging 3.06 goals per game. Man Utd’s matches alone average 3.47 goals, while Newcastle’s average 2.65. With both teams conceding over a goal per game and United’s high-scoring, high-conceding nature, a goal-filled encounter is highly probable.
Prediction: Man Utd 2-2 Newcastle (14/1 with Dabble)
Nottingham Forest vs Man City – Saturday 27 December, 12:30pm
Pep Guardiola’s side are really starting to roll this season and have now put together a string of seven consecutive victories across all competitions. Arsenal will be looking nervously over their shoulder and with Erling Haaland looking unstoppable, it could spell trouble for Forest. Although much improved under Sean Dyche, the hosts could struggle against an attack spearheaded by Erling Haaland. Man City have won four of their last five without conceding and can do so again here.
Prediction: Nottingha, Forest 0-3 Man City (9/1 with Dabble)
West Ham vs Fulham – Saturday 27 December, 3:00pm
West Ham’s home defence is a major liability, having conceded 20 goals at the London Stadium—the second-highest in the league. Fulham’s away attack is potent, scoring 1.5 goals per game on the road. The combined average goals per match for both sides at the London Stadium is exceptionally high. Given West Ham’s defensive struggles and Fulham’s attacking threat, the data strongly suggests a high-scoring victory for the away side, easily surpassing the 2.5 goal mark.
Prediction: West Ham 1-2 Fulham (8/1 with Dabble)
Brentford vs Bournemouth – Saturday 27 December, 3:00pm
Brentford’s strong home record (W5 D2 L1 in eight matches) makes them clear favourites against a struggling Bournemouth side, who have lost four of their last seven away fixtures. The BTTS element is highly probable: Bournemouth’s matches have a 56% BTTS rate, and their recent away losses often involve them scoring a consolation goal. Brentford’s solid home attack combined with Bournemouth’s leaky away defence ensures a high-scoring contest where the Bees secure all three points.
Prediction: Brentford 2-1 Bournemouth (17/2 with Dabble)
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Liverpool vs Wolves – Saturday 27 December, 3:00pm
Liverpool’s high-pressing style (second-best pressure regain rate) is perfectly suited to exploit Wolves’ league-high six errors leading to a goal. Wolves are in crisis, sitting bottom after 17 matches without a win, including a recent 2-0 loss to Brentford. Liverpool’s superior quality and attacking threat, led by Hugo Ekitike, combined with Wolves’ defensive fragility and tendency to concede multiple goals, strongly suggests a comfortable two-goal victory for the Reds at Anfield.
Prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Wolves (6/1 with Dabble)
Arsenal vs Brighton – Saturday 27 December, 3:00pm
Arsenal are unbeaten at home in eight league outings this season and have won seven of those. On Saturday, they face a Brighton side who have failed to score in their last two and could struggle here. Five of Arsenal’s seven wins at The Emirates this season have been by a two-goal or bigger margin, and taking them on the -1 match handicap looks like a nice angle into the markets here.
Prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Brighton (11/1 with Dabble)
Burnley vs Everton – Saturday 27 December, 3:00pm
Everton are strong favourites due to Burnley’s dire away form. Burnley sit second bottom in the league with a very poor overall form, having lost 12 of 17 matches. Crucially, their away record is W1 D1 L7, conceding heavily on the road. In contrast, Everton’s home form is solid at W4 D2 L3. Given Burnley’s struggles and Everton’s superior home record, the Toffees are statistically positioned to secure a comfortable victory at Goodison Park.
Prediction: Burnley 1-2 Everton (8/1 with Dabble)
Chelsea vs Aston Villa – Saturday 27 December, 5:30pm
Aston Villa have won their last seven league games, last having a longer run in the top-flight between October and December 1910 (9). The Villans have also won 12 of their 21 Premier League away games against London sides under Unai Emery (D4 L5), more than they had in their previous 59 (W11 D10 L38). Chelsea may have performed well in matches against teams above them this season, but with Villa winning their last ten across all competitions, we just cannot keep away from the even money that is available for the visitors to win or draw the match.
Prediction: Chelsea 1-2 Aston Villa (13/1 with Dabble)
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Sunderland vs Leeds – Sunday 28 December, 2:00pm
There could be value in backing a score-draw due to Leeds’ attacking numbers (222 shots, 24 goals) and Sunderland’s strong home threat. Only Manchester United have seen a higher percentage of their matches feature both teams scoring this season than Leeds, who have seen btts feature in 11 of 17 this term (65%).
Prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Leeds (11/2 with Dabble)
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham – Sunday 28 December, 4:30pm
Recent form and attacking statistics suggest the Crystal Palace and Tottenham match on December 28th will see both teams score. This season, Tottenham has scored 26 goals in the Premier League, while Crystal Palace has found the net 21 times. Historically, direct matches between the two clubs have averaged 2.17 goals. Although their last two encounters saw Palace win without conceding, the five games prior to that saw both teams scoring in three of them.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Tottenham (6/1 with Dabble)
